"Flip a Coin" Strategy Again

Sunday night can't come quick enough, can it? All of the variables surrounding the Colts vs. Titans contest have probably consumed my holiday spirit more than they should be, but I can't help it. There is another factor that we have to hope works out in the Browns' favor this Sunday, and it involves a coin toss. No, it's not the often controversial one in overtime -- it's the one prior to opening kickoff.

We want the Colts to get off to the quickest start that they possibly can so that they can put the pressure on Vince Young and company. Unfortunately, in games where the Colts lose the coin toss, they have been prone to allowing long touchdown-scoring drives. If that were to happen, the starters on defense may only see the field for one series, and worse yet, they would have given up a touchdown. Case in point:

• Week 12 @ Atlanta (Lost Toss): The Falcons' first drive took 19 plays for 63 yards, eating 8 minutes worth of clock up. Atlanta only got a field goal, but on their next series, they scored a touchdown. It was basically their only scoring in the game, showing that they had built something early on.
• Week 13 vs. Jacksonville (Won Toss): The Colts' first drive resulted in a punt, but they pinned the Jaguars back and forced a turnover. The Colts quickly went on to then score two touchdowns in the first quarter.
• Week 14 @ Baltimore (Won Toss): The Colts seized the momentum on the first drive, as Manning threw a touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne. The Colts ended up winning the first quarter 23-0.
• Week 15 @ Oakland (Won Toss): The Colts drove down the field and were forced to kick a short field goal. Again though, after winning the toss, they gained momentum early with a 10-0 first quarter over the Raiders.
• Week 16 vs. Houston (Lost Toss): The Texans' first drive took just 7 plays for 73 yards, resulting in a touchdown pass to Kevin Walter. About 4 minutes of clock was used, but this is the second case where the Colts started off on the losing side when they lost the coin toss.

Maybe a good question would be this: what happened when these two teams faced each other earlier this season?

• Week 2 @ Tennessee (Lost Toss): The Titans' first drive lasted 8 plays for 33 yards, but the Titans just barely missed putting together the same type of drives that Atlanta and Houston did. On a 4th-and-1, running back Chris Brown was stopped short of the first down, turning the ball over to the Colts, who scored a touchdown a few plays later. Tennessee has gotten much better in their running game since Week 2 though, and they have a new featured runner in LenDale White. Because of this, I think the outcome of the coin toss remains pivotal.

Another thing about the coin toss: sometimes it's better for a good team like the Colts to have an opportunity to drive the ball late in the two-minute warning before the first half ends, and also get the ball back right after halftime first. However, Jim Sorgi will be quarterbacking at the start of the second half, meaning the Colts would all-but-lose any sort of advantage that may have derived from that type of situation.

Since the Colts are at home, the Titans will get to call the coin flip. What do you think the Titans should choose, so that they will lose the toss? Heads or Tails? And, if you think I'm becoming obsessed with this game, then you couldn't be more dead on.