Hanging on By a Thread - Division or Wildcard?
by Chris Pokorny on Nov 2, 2008 6:11 PM EST
in General News
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PrintAt 3-5, it's a gloomy time for Cleveland Browns fans. We had an opportunity to improve to 4-4, which wouldn't have been a bad record heading into the second half of the season. In a best-case scenario, it looks like it'll take a 9-7 record to make the postseason. That would require the Browns to finish the season off at 6-2.
Here is a brief look at our remaining schedule:
Week 10: Denver (Ranked 30th)
Week 11: at Buffalo (Ranked 13th)
Week 12: Houston (Ranked 21st)
Week 13: Indianapolis (Ranked 26th)
Week 14: at Tennessee (Ranked 10th)
Week 15: at Philadelphia (Ranked 9th)
Week 16: Cincinnati (Ranked 28th)
Week 17: at Pittsburgh (Ranked 3rd)
The rankings in parenthesis represent each teams' run defense through Week 9.
In our first eight games, five of our matches involved games against teams ranked in the top 7 in stopping the run. A huge problem for offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski against the Ravens was his inability to stop running the ball when we clearly couldn't run the ball.
Three of our next four games will be at home against run defenses that have not done particularly well. A 3-1 record during that stretch leaves us at 6-6 with four games to go. Then, it's the opposite effect for the final four games -- three of our final four opponents have run defenses ranked in the top ten. With Tennessee looking unbeatable, especially in their own stadium, our "best-case scenario" would have us winning our final three games of the year.
Bottom line? Things aren't looking very good.
But, if you want optimism, here it is, regarding potential wildcard teams:
Baltimore: With them having swept us, we need to finish with a better record than them to have any shot. However, they've yet to face a team from the NFC East. Honestly, I still don't see Baltimore winning a single game against them. That, plus another loss to Pittsburgh, slips them to 8-8 at best.
Buffalo: In the next two weeks, they face New England and Cleveland. You can't expect them to beat the Patriots on the road after losing two straight to the Dolphins and Jets, so then we'd have a chance at "controlling our own destiny" against them with what would basically be coming off a bye week for the Browns. If Buffalo loses both games, we'd put them behind us (temporarily).
New York Jets: In two of their next three games, they face New England and Tennessee. That could place them around 6-5 in three weeks, which would be within striking distance if the Browns are even 5-6.
Indianapolis: They face New England tonight and Pittsburgh next week. With a game against us a few weeks later, we also have a shot at controlling our own piece here.
Here is what we need to bank on to stay in the race:
- Forget the Division: We already have a 1-3 record in the division. Even if we sweep the Bengals and Steelers, as long as the Steelers beat the Bengals or the Ravens one more time, the last game of the season cannot decide the division (unless Pittsburgh goes winless or something). Pittsburgh plays a lot of our wildcard foes -- we need them to help take out teams like Baltimore and Indianapolis.
- Hope for the Chargers: We need another late-season rally from the Chargers. We do not face them this year, but we do face the Denver Broncos. Beating the Broncos gives us a wildcard head-to-head advantage over them, while the Chargers slip ahead into the division lead.
- Win Every Wildcard Battle: We have games against Indianapolis, Denver, and Buffalo. Lose one of them, and we're pretty much out.
Please be aware that this entire article is grasping for straws. Straws are the only thing we have left at this point though, due to our division record.
Nonetheless, we have to stick behind our team again. Derek Anderson is not going to be benched after playing a pretty good game overall. We play again in just four days (this Thursday) against one of our targets, the Denver Broncos. Through it all -- GO BROWNS!!!
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Yep…definitely grasping for straws.
Only way I could try to feel a little happy after this meltdown was to play the “what if scenarios” game.
Unfortunately, every season I’ve played that game on DBN, we’ve never come out victorious.
Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.
by Chris Pokorny on Nov 2, 2008 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
It is grasping for straws...
But damnit, we have to do something to stay positive right?
I tried to talk myself into something similar last week, comparing our schedule to that of the Steelers for the second half, in hopes that I could find some optimism for the 2nd half of the season.
Of course, everything was written with the assumption that we would take care of business against Baltimore. It looked pretty good when we were up 27-13. Now it’s a pretty severe long shot, and it’s unfortunate, because this team should be better than 3-5. But, as Bill Parcells always says, you are what your record says you are. And the Browns definitely deserve to be a 3-5 team this year.
Jerod Morris
http://www.midwestsportsfans.com
by Midwest Sports Fans on Nov 2, 2008 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
NFL Network wants subscribers. Similar reason as to why all World Series games had to air at 8:30 or later…more money for the powers involved.
Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.
by Chris Pokorny on Nov 2, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
NOT FREAKIN' FAIR
Week 10: Denver (Loss) – DA had an ok day today against a tough defense, so he’s going to throw 3 INT and complete 50% of his pass because he will not be motivated to play next week
(P.S: EAS once again put on their Brady Quinn commercial only to be disappointed)
Week 11: at Buffalo (Win) – DA played a horrible game against Denver; thus, he will play another terrific game to save his a**.
Week 12: Houston (Win) – They’re still the Houston Freakin’ Texans
(P.S: Browns fans on cloud 9 with glimmers of playoffs hope.)
Week 13: Indianapolis (Loss) – DA, thinking its ok to be DA again because he just won 2 straiight games)
(P.S: Finally, after 20+ games and seating on the draft for a whole day, Mighty Quinn
makes his NFL debut.)
Week 14: at Tennessee (Loss) – Browns chants for Ken Dorsey (KD! KD! KD!)
(P.S: Romeo gets fired.)
Week 15: at Philadelphia (Loss) – Philadelphia fighting for a playoff spot. Browns chants for Charlie Fray Frei Fri Frey.
Week 16: Cincinnati (Win) – They’re still the Cincinattin Freakin’ Bengals
Week 17: at Pittsburgh (Loss) – Steelers wanting a playoff bye week.
Brady Quinn: 1 wins and 3 Loss
Derek Anderson: 5 wins 7 and Loss
Browns 6 wins 10 Loss
OFFSEASON:
Coach: William Laird Cowher aka “Bill” pursued but decides it’s still the Cleveland Freakin’ Browns
——-
First round (7th overall) draft pick: CB Malcolm Jenkins or TTU Michael Crabtree
“With the 7th draft pick of the first round 2009 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns selects
Chris "Beanie” Wells"
Browns can’t go wrong with either three, just listen to their names Malcolm, Crabtree, Beanie
——-
Finally, the QB quandry:
Derek Anderson remains the QB of the Browns and Brady Quinn is traded to the Kansas City Chiefs for their 2nd round draft pick and 2010 first round draft pick.
NOT FREAKIN’ FAIR
This game tells me one thing. Derek Anderson cannot be the guy for the Browns. Anderson plays well at spurts today and yet one bad play, and the entire stadium is chanting for Quinn. Anderson will not be able to succeed here with Quinn breathing down his neck.
Anyone who thinks we are trading Brady is wrong. Quinn is going to be guy in Cleveland, and with that I don’t even envision Anderson being with the team next season.
I thought Anderson played fairly well today (beneficiary of good field position thanks to Cribbs) but we need someone who will get it done when the game is on the line. His fourth quarter stats were atrocious, and while you can point to the Edwards drop, there is a lot to be concerned about with the way he played in the 4th quarter.
Chris, I am with you on the playcalling, it is absurd that we were running on first and second down still most of the time.
I don’t understand the playcalling at all. Is it really that hard for the coaches to see what’s happening? Sometimes I feel they must be so engrossed in what’s going on that they miss the obvious. Why continue to run on first and second down while getting almost nothing and setting us up with 3rd and 9? I was hoping that once we got the lead we’d keep throwing the ball, but they went back to running Lewis twice then hoping for a prayer. Ridiculous.
Also, absolutely no way we are trading Quinn. He will be the starting QB by the end of the year. I’m hoping we’ll see him this week but somehow I doubt it. Anderson just doesn’t have it.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
It definitely wasn’t C.H.U.D.‘s finest hour. Their secondary was extremely banged up… so we call run play after run play. Idiotic and unimaginative play-calling. Why can we call exciting surprise plays against NYG and JAX, but not BAL? We had great field position most of the game (especially the second half), and hardly did anything with it. DA’s 4th quarter was abysmal.
Mel T didn’t do much better on the other side.
Bray still can’t make catches. So long, 2008.
by JulioBernazard on Nov 3, 2008 7:50 AM EST up reply actions
I dont thing Anderson was all that awful until his interception. Now that was just him being a retard but the rest of the game wasnt terrible, or wouldnt have been if Edwards could catch
Definitely more than one guy
So Edwards dropped a catch on a big play, but that doesn’t explain why for most of the game the Browns passing attack against a Ravens secondary with only one starter was not very effective. Of course, the Browns only had one starting receiver, so I guess that made them even. That dropped pass combined with some poor throws and some receivers just not getting open to make the passing game stumble.
And since the running game was limited to trying to force Lewis’ atoms to detach from one another and then reassemble somewhere beyond the front seven (didn’t work – he remained a solid mass) instead of trying to get outside with Harrison now and then, it’s surprising that the Browns put up the points that they did.
8-8 at best, are you serious?
You still have to go on the road against phili, tenn, and pitt! and you have indi and denver at home. There is no way clev goes 6-2 over that span, and 9-7 is not going to make the playoffs this year.
Pitt is going to get a wooping when bengay and crew come into M&T. We are winning games against decent pass offense without 3 starting secondary players! You watch at the end of the season when Baltimore is on top of the AFC North where there belong?
Let me ask you this. What makes you think we are an 8-8 team and you are a 9-7 team? Explain that please
Ravens play 2 of the 4 NFC east teams at home, where we have the 3rd best home record since 2000.
But anyway, great game today, you guys put up a hell of a fight and definitely revealed the weaknesses of my RAVENS. I wish you luck the rest of the season, I had a very fun day.
The Giants, Redskins, and Eagles defenses won’t allow the Ravens to rip off 24 straight points. With Romo coming back around the time you face Dallas, that shouldn’t be a highlight game either. Really, all of the NFC East teams are still better than the AFC North teams.
My 8-8 projection for Baltimore admittedly has a lot to do with my grasping for straws, though.
Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.
by Chris Pokorny on Nov 2, 2008 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
Hate to say it but it’s that ever so familiar time of the year where I start rooting for losses to better our draft position.
what difference does that make? The problem still lies with Savage and Crennel. Savage for some reason has latched onto Crennel like he is Paul Brown and Crennel thinks Anderson is Payton Manning.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
A better draft pick has the chance to net a better player, I think that is what vegasbrown was getting at
i’d be interested to know why so much faith in savage? i was just going through his exploits as browns gm today, and his record is barely passing, if you ask me. i won’t list all of them here, but take a look at his draft record—for a guy who is supposed to be a genius talent evaluator, he’s essentially got 9 “hits” out of 29 picks in his tenure…and 9 is a stretch (includes Wimbley, Wright and McDonald). he’s had top-3 cap space in the league over the past several years, and yet our LBs and DBs are still terrible.
he’s average at best, friends.
by DontCallMeJoey on Nov 3, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
not to mention the atrocious mismanagement of the qb situation that has likely set the franchise back at least a year.
by DontCallMeJoey on Nov 3, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
think about it…savage has COMPLETE control over the organization with romeo manning the headset. that’s why savage has latched onto romeo, not b/c he thinks he’s a great coach. as long as romes is around, with lerner not being involved, savage rules the roost.
the problem comes when people realize that the on-field results are as much savage’s responsibility as anyone’s, and then he’s got to scramble. he’s smart, however, in that he’s likely to be given a shot w/ another coach, and he’s set up romeo as the fall guy—that assumes, of course, that cowher isn’t the next coach.
by DontCallMeJoey on Nov 3, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Even if we would have won and were 4-4 we still have Denver, @Buffalo, Houston, and Indianapolis. Let’s say we continue to play well and go 3-1 in that stretch and sitting at 7-5. We still have @Tennessee, @Philly, Cincy and @Pittsburgh. With 3 road games against good teams we probably go 1-2 and beat Cincy at home for a 2-2 stretch. So we would still only finish 9-7 (although we’d be doing well with the tiebreakers).
The only remaining hope imo is to win the next 4 since they are all against conference teams that we will be competing with at the end of the year. If we can somehow pull that off, we still have a shot. at 9-7. Anything less and 2008 is truly over.
Yeah, the win against Baltimore would’ve zoned us in on the division instead of the highly-contested wildcard race. Beating the Ravens (and later the Bengals) would’ve set our division record at 3-2. If the Ravens then did us a favor and beat the Steelers, the Week 17 match would’ve been for the division.
Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.
by Chris Pokorny on Nov 3, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
write up by SI's Don Banks
With the talent that he has on the roster, and a eminent high draft pick in next year’s draft, he’s probably got one more season to turn it around. I’ve given up on RAC, and his foolish devotion to a QB with a sub .500 (drops or no) completion percentage.
The seaon is over and the play-offs are out of reach, save a massive Pittsburgh-Baltimore meltdown. Play Quinn this Thursday against Denver and see if he can handle it on a short week. I’d like to think Savage drafted the guy for a reason, other than selling protein drinks and Subway sandwiches.
Fire RAC and draft Cowher. Offer him whatever he wants, whatever money it takes. The opportunity should interest him, given the talent on the roster and the draft position we’re likely to have. Not like we’re deep in draft trouble either. And PLAY STEVE HEIDEN MOAR!!! At least he can block.
left off the article URL
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/don_banks/11/02/snap.judgments.week.9/index.html
We all know this to be true, except for perhaps the most rabid anti-ND elements.
Romeo has pretty much said that Anderson will start at Denver. Odds are they won’t throw Quinn out there for MNF either. But after that game, odds are that even the WC will be out of reach. At which point it would make sense to play Quinn just to get him some experience and evaluate him during actual playing time. Note, i didn’t say it would happen, I just said it would make sense. Of course, if Quinn is also limited to only one starting receiver (who is dropping 30% of the passes coming his way) then he’s not going to look very good either.
Lets just hope in the mean time that Savage is looking at ways to gain draft picks rather than trading them away. So far the only thing that has paid off in that arena is Rogers.
The timing of your comment was funny :D
For the record, I was definitely wrong about saying Anderson won’t be benched against Denver (see final paragraph of the initial article).
Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.
by Chris Pokorny on Nov 3, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
No kidding. And THAT is why I don’t go to Vegas.
I usually get a sinking feeling when the Browns decide to switch QB’s, but, if you assume that the season is a bust anyways, then getting eight games in for Quinn is really not a bad idea. And if you like to play the long odds, it could actually save the season.
Now I’m definitely going to have to get a nap Thursday afternoon. Whether they’re winning or losing, I want to stay up to see how he handles himself.
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