Realistically, what could the Browns get for Anderson?

by maryrose on Feb 10, 2008 10:18 PM EST

Put aside the whole Anderson/Quinn thing for a moment.

Just looking at Derek Anderson, what, realistically, could the Browns get for him in a trade?

Also, if they tender him the $2.56 million restricted free agency tab, who out there would offer him more and then give up their first and third round picks???

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Re: Realistically, what could the Browns

The way I see it playing out is as follows:

Browns and Anderson differ on length of contract extension, so the Browns place the highest tender on DA.

Anderson hits the market looking for a long-term deal. A team will only sign him knowing they would be forced to give up their first and third round draft picks, which I believe is what we can expect in a trade.

Depending on the length and size of the contract, the Browns will either match (2-3 year deal) or let him walk (4-7 years) and gladly accept the 1st and 3rd round picks. I have seen a lot of speculation about the Browns only going for a 2nd round pick or so for Anderson, but I don't envision a scenario where the Browns would negotiate down to a 2nd rounder and allow Anderson to walk.

If we put the high tender on him, Savage will accept 1st round pick and nothing less.

by Roger Dorn on Feb 12, 2008 3:03 PM EST reply actions

Re: Realistically, what could the Browns get 4 DA

I'm really interested in this question as well, but I'm actually more intrigued by the perception of draft pick values. By most draft boards I have seen, Matt Ryan is listed as a top 5 pick, but would you rather draft Matt Ryan and pay the top 5 salary or trade that pick for DA and pay him the same or possibly less money? So if you are team X with a top 5 pick and you plan to select Matt Ryan with that pick and Savage rings you and offers DA straight up for the pick, as the GM of team X, do you do the deal?

Would any team in the league accept that offer or would they just go on selecting Matt Ryan?

I have a strange feeling that there is almost no team that would accept that deal. I don't know why I feel this way. Maybe it's because fan's (and maybe owner's/gm's) love the promise of the draft. Am I completely wrong?

To be clear, I'm not advocating that Savage make this type of offer as I would rather get a few picks for him if he is traded, but I am curious what other people's opinions are of the perceived value of draft picks.

by dvd1204 on Feb 12, 2008 6:32 PM EST reply actions

Re: Realistically, what could the Browns get 4 DA

You are right. GMs value the draft. The value board for draft picks and the perception of draft picks as valuable gives them value.

I think at this point both Matt Ryan and DA are somewhat unproven QBs. Yes, DA had a pro bowl season, but everybody knows how he did in December and how inconsistent he was at times. Can he develop to the point where he plays at the level of the first Cincinnati game or the St. Louis game (576 yards, 8 TDs, 1 INT), or will he always have games like he did against New England, Cincinnati round 2, or Oakland (QB ratings of 59, 53.4, 57)? Ryan has a lot of upside, but has obviously not played an NFL game yet. Ryan Leaf had upside too.

The lack of quality QBs available in the NFL (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071221) gives quarterbacks really high value in the draft and in trades (I don't think Ryan is the 5th best player in the draft, but I wouldn't mind my team picking him there because QBs are so valuable). It's an important position on the field too, which doesn't hurt. If someone offered you Brady or Peyton for draft picks, you would give them your whole draft. QBs, GOOD QBs are hard to find and have a lot of value in today's NFL.

I read somewhere earlier in the season that if we just offered DA the highest tender RFA sheet that another team would almost certainly give up the 1st and 3rd rounders and take him. My guess is that teams drafting later (meaning that they are good teams...unless they are SF...) would be more willing to part with their picks because they give up later picks. Teams that are winning but still don't have a reliable option at QB might think that DA would be the one missing piece they need to make the playoffs, get further in the playoffs, or win the superbowl.

If I am a GM picking in the top-5 (Miami, St Louis, Atlanta, Oakland, Kansas City.) there is no way I pick up DA for my 1st and 3rd round picks. I probably don't even go after him for the 1st rounder only. Here's why: I either believe I have the franchise QB of the future (Oakland), I am counting on my QB to come back from injuries (St Louis), or I have waaaaaayyyyy too many holes to fill to give up any picks for DA and throw him to the wolves behind a terrible O-line (Miami, KC, Atlanta). It's just not worth it, I'll take McFadden, Dorsey, Long, or Long, thanks.

I'd say Chicago would have to look hard at trading its 1st rounder at Anderson. Maybe Minnesota, Buffalo, Baltimore, or NYJ too. The conditions just have to be right for a GM to make that kind of move: you gotta have a good-to-franchise LT, a decent-to-good O line, and some good receivers.

by rufio on Feb 15, 2008 7:20 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Realistically ....

What I am confused about, is if we tender him (making him a FA after next season), and if a team is willing to give up their 1st and 3rd draft picks, would it be this April's draft? Or would it be the following year that we would get the picks? That is the timeline I am unsure of.

The transition/non-exclusive franchise players can negotiate all the way up to July 15, which exceeds the draft obviously. Do the tendered players have the same window? I can't find those details. My assumption is that it is this year's draft .... but if they can negotiate like the transition players, it is then next year's draft.

by talonk @ Dawgs By Nature on Feb 16, 2008 10:39 AM EST reply actions