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Playing the Percentages Defensively

After gushing last week so much over the work of local sportswriter Terry Pluto, I'm surprised that BringBackKosar hasn't stated that I've found a new man-crush. Or, maybe it'll be more appropriate after I praise Pluto's work from June 1, in which he included some interesting statistics regarding how often some of our defenders saw action on the field.

Although he was on the field often, Bodden's injuries eventually led to him getting burned on a consistent basis.

1. Leigh Bodden (98%): This was almost a wake-up call, or a slap-in-the-face. Maybe it's just me, but I didn't think about the fact that Bodden was actually on the field for the majority of our plays. Heck, in a casual conversation, if a Detroit fan would've asked me about Bodden, I might have mistakenly said that he missed some games the past couple of years due to injuries. While he missed three games in 2005 and seven games in 2007, he didn't miss a single game last season.

What does all of that mean in regard to this year's defense? Not a whole lot that we didn't already know, but still worth noting. Pluto also debunked the rumor that the Browns threw Bodden into the Shaun Rogers deal for nothing.

"Detroit wanted Leigh from the beginning when we started talking about Shaun (Rogers)," Savage said. "It was always Bodden and a pick, the question being what round. Leigh was in virtually every trade discussion with the Lions. He was a key piece for them."

With Bodden gone, Pluto also stated that the Browns are already leaning towards running a Cover-2 defense this season. If you're unfamiliar with defensive schemes, the Cover-2 approach focuses on keeping everything in front of you in the passing game to prevent teams from hitting the big play. That means that safeties Brodney Pool and Sean Jones would play center field towards the left and right sidelines, while it'd be the job of young cornerbacks Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald to make the sure-tackles on quick passes.

The drawback to the Cover-2 is that the middle of the field is typically more open, considering the safeties are providing support deep for the cornerbacks. A Tampa-2 defense -- which requires more savvy players -- would remove the issue of patterns over the middle by dropping a linebacker back there. Until the Browns actually prove that our front seven is good enough to stop the run though, we can't even consider a Tampa-2 type of approach.

2. Kamerion Wimbley (99%): Yikes...just think about that. 99 out of 100 times, Wimbley was on the field? Remember, this is a guy whose primary job was often to try and rush the passer. We're paying him a lot of money to do that, so some might argue that there's no sense in worrying about whether or not he gets tired. That's not the issue though -- we saw how effective the New York Giants pass rushers were when they worked in a deep rotation. After considering this, perhaps signing a player like a Rosevelt Colvin should be a little higher on our priority list.

3. Antwan Peek (54%): This figure wasn't surprising in the least; in fact, it seemed a little high considering all the time he missed. As Pluto noted, although Peek played in 14 games, he never could give his best effort on gameday. The few times he did receive playing time, I saw a lot of positives -- a reason why I'm really hoping he, of all our linebackers, remains healthy this season.

4. Willie McGinest (62%): This is clearly a mistake, especially for a player that's nearing the end of his career. McGinest was ripped by us many times last season for being in position towards the end of games to tackle a running back in the open field, only not to come through. If we have McGinest on the field 62% of the time again this season, the left side of our defense will be attacked by opposing running backs at a concerning rate.

5. Robaire Smith (81%): The more I think about it, the more I appreciate Smith's contribution to our defensive line last season. Pluto wisely pointed out that no other Browns defensive lineman even reached 50%. Smith gutted the season out, but was clearly overworked. With the much-needed depth we added in the offseason, lowering Smith's percentage will hopefully increase his effectiveness.

The youngster, Shaun Smith, will be heavily depended on this season to spell the other Smith, Rogers, and Williams.

6. Shaun Smith (44%): The other Smith will be our go-to-guy for depth this season, and getting him 44% of the playing time last season was critical. He's much further along in terms of experience than we expected him to be prior to last season starting. Instead of going into this year with a question mark in case either Shaun Rogers or Corey Williams go down, there is less need to panic.

Pluto adds that the fifth defensive lineman is shaping up to be a battle between Chase Pittman, Louis Leonard, Melila Purcell and rookie Ahtyba Rubin. That'll be something we'll have to zone in on during training camp, because at this point, I don't think we've seen enough from any of them to decide on a clear favorite. For the sake of a guess though, I'd go with Leonard, considering we grabbed him from the Rams last season.

Pluto's entire article is listed in today's link collection below:

Terry Pluto's Talkin' about Browns defense (Cleveland Plain Dealer)

Passan: Bell, Rucker face long odds (Orange and Brown Report)

Deleted scene from LOST episode, The Economist (DocArtz)

Florio projects Browns to miss the playoffs (Sporting News)

Today, June 2, is my birthday. I'm happy that the weather has been very pleasant on my birthday for the second consecutive year in a row!

0 recs | Comment 6 comments

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Happy Birthday.

I always thought your man-crush was on a certain backup runningback who we never see.

by Estonianzulu on Jun 2, 2008 11:46 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Happy Bday, Chris

I would question having the Tampa-2 as our basic pass defense, but it might work. It just doesn’t fit our personnel as I understand it.

Sean Jones seems like the kind of guy you want in the box but maybe not in coverage so much, a not-so-extreme Roy Williams. Maybe he can do it, but I would feel more comfortable with him looking to lay the smack down on RBs and TEs in sort of a “robber” zone in the middle of the field than covering WRs deep.

Wright and McDonald are both smaller CBs, and while quick in the short area/zone coverage, they don’t seem to be physical enough to jam WRs at the line of scrimmage. As I understand it, you want BOTH of these qualities in a Tampa-2 corner. Wright might be able to jam guys at around 200 lbs, but McDonald is only 185…how is he going to jam Hines Ward, any of Jacksonville’s WRs, or Andre Johnson? If they go down, Cousin is even smaller.

Third, as I understand it, to run a Tampa-2, you need a MLB who can drop deep in zone coverage, someone who is really fast, and you can sacrifice size for speed. I love D’Qwell Jackson, but is he going to be our Brian Urlacher? It certainly won’t be Andra Davis.

Also, as I understand it, the Cover 2 covers the middle of the field as well or better than a Cover 3 or Cover 4. The seams to attack are behind the corners and in front of the safeties, and deep down the middle of the field between the safeties. The short, “over the middle” area is covered by 2.5 LBs in a Tampa-2 and 3 in a Cover 2.

by rufio on Jun 3, 2008 12:34 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree here with my concerns of using a Tampa 2. If you look at teams that are successful with it such as the Colts or Bears, you see that they use corners like Marlin Jackson or Charles Tillman that are excellent tacklers for their position. Wright from what I saw last year appeared to be a solid tackler, but I don’t think the defense plays to his strengths.

As for the safeties, I actually like Sean Jones as both an in-the-box type as well as a roaming strong safety, I think he has the athleticism to cover the deep part of the field. I don’t like hte idea of not moving Jones around as he has proven to be very capable of getting to the QB on a safety blitz. Out of the whole secondary, the Cover 2 might befit Brodney Pool the best and play the most to his strengths.

Agree with your third concern on a middle linebacker that can cover the deep part of the field. I just don’t see that ability in any of our current guys and it kind of defies the logic of acquiring 3-4 style inside LB’s and then converting them into guys that are fast enough to cover receivers and tight ends down the field.

The cover 2 just doesn’t seem to add up as our base defense, and in my opinion would make more sense to mix in as a different look if anything.

by Roger Dorn on Jun 3, 2008 11:05 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree with both of you. Mel Tucker’s strength is defensive backs. He was a graduate assistant under Nick Saban whose strength is also DB’s. He was the secondary coach at OSU with Gamble, Doss, Allen etc. I think that we will go more man coverage and bring Sean Jones on bltzes like Arizona does with Adrian Wilson. Tucker has never had any association with a cover-2 type scheme. I think it is more of a worst case scenario type deal.

If we can generate pressure the DB’s will be fine (as is with any team).

by Bernie19Kosar on Jun 3, 2008 3:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

All NFL teams run every type of defensive scheme in a season. The only question is what our base defense will be. I expect Cover Two as most teams base defense is Cover Two. Leon Williams is athletic enough at the Mike position to drop back to cover the deep middle of the field. Playing Cover Two out of a 3-4 allows us to hide an aging Andra Davis and still be able to play him against the run.

I actually doubt that we see much man coverage, at least in the beginning of the year. We have a very raw group of CB’s and it would be easy for them to be prayed upon by the opposition. Maybe we will mix in Cover 1 or even Cover 0 as the year goes on but I would not expect it for awhile.

by gahnki on Jun 4, 2008 9:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hopefully, the “cover 2” business is just the media not knowing what they are talking about, and actually means “keep everything in front of you”. Cover 2 man wouldn’t be bad, as we could send any of our 4 LBs at the QB at any given time and play cover 2 man behind our front 3 and the blitzing LB.

If Tucker calls his defense like Tressel does, look for a fair amount of blitzing, nothing too creative, and lots of zone. I don’t think that will get it done, though, because this is the NFL. We play from a 3-4 front and it should be easy to stop the run and blitz creatively. We should do both.

Leaving our corners on an island probably isn’t a great idea except against Baltimore, Tennessee, anyone on Buffalo not named Lee Evans, and maybe Washington. Teams like Dallas and Indianapolis will kill us if we go cover 0.

by rufio on Jun 6, 2008 10:33 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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