Playing the Percentages Offensively
Cleveland Plain Dealer writer Terry Pluto continues to dazzle me on Sundays. After posting the percentages of how often certain players saw the field defensively for the Browns, he shifted to the other side of the ball this week.
It's worth noting that since our offense was really good to begin with, "analyzing" the offensive percentages won't be as enlightening. However, some aspects should serve as a reminder as to why we were successful. With the research and percentages fully credited to Pluto, here are my thoughts:
(Disclaimer: In my analysis, I'll try to refrain from mentioning the possibility of players getting injured this season. There's no need for me to say 'if he get's injured...' for every player; it'd be too repetitive.)
1. Derek Anderson (96%): My goodness, it's a miracle. Such a high percentage alone for a Browns quarterback means that we didn't have to worry about a quarterback controversy. No Kelly Holcomb/Tim Couch debate. No Jeff Garcia/Luke McCown debate. No Trent Dilfer/Charlie Frye debate. In regards to Brady Quinn, there were reasons people wanted to give him a shot, but the situation was night and say compared to the other three debates.
Plays like this one are the reason Edwards saw the most playing time of any offensive player besides the linemen.2. Braylon Edwards (97%): Besides a few members of our offensive line, Edwards saw the most action offensively. He was clearly one of the best receivers in all of football last season, and there's no reason to believe he'll have a dropoff season this year.
3. Joe Jurevicius (68%): This is where Donte Stallworth comes into play. Jurevicius' percentage is lower than I expected -- I'd expect a No. 2 receiver to see the field at least three out of every four plays. While Jurevicius is a target I love having on the team, I think he'd benefit from having less snaps, allowing him to be more effective when he's brought in on third downs or down near the goal line.
4. Tim Carter (35%): Something's wrong here. Big time. When a receiver is on the field for 35% of the plays and I can't remember him having a positive impact in a single game last season, it creates a hole in the offense. I agree with Pluto's take on this percentage -- this will hopefully be the distribution of plays that Jurevicius receivers this year.
5. Kellen Winslow (86%): For those questioning Winslow's health -- yes, he may have issues, but he works through them. We didn't have any other receiving tight ends that Anderson seemed acclimated to throwing to last season besides K2. That means we were without a receiving threat at the tight end position for 11 percent of our plays (note: I use Edwards' 97% as the benchmark). Is that where rookie Martin Rucker -- besides two-tight-end sets -- will be utilized this season?
6. Steve Heiden (55%): Heiden is expected to be back at camp soon after having back surgery in the offseason. Though we drafted Rucker, I don't expect him to cut into Heiden's playing time that much. Heiden is our blocking tight end -- something that Rucker has never been asked to specialize in. However, Pluto notes that the Browns believe Rucker's blocking abilities were underrated simply because he was never asked to block in college.
Lewis' percentage would likely increase to around 65% if he had played in every game. Still, he racked up over 1,300 yards.7. Jamal Lewis (56%): Don't be surprised that Lewis played just a little over half of our offensive plays. Remember, he gained over 1,300 yards last season and recorded nine rushing touchdowns. Also, he basically missed two entire games (against NE and MIA) early on in the season. Lewis' goal is to improve upon those numbers this year, and he's sounded motivated to do so throughout the offseason.
8. Jason Wright (38%) / Jerome Harrison (4%): I lump these two together for comparison's sake. We had a running back on the field 98% of the time if you combine the percentages, leaving the other 2% for plays like five-wide or when Cribbs was used in the backfield. I'd really like to see Harrison's percentage shoot up to 25% this season, which would cover third-down situations basically. Wright has done a solid job, but I think Harrison has the extra "waterbug" factor that can contribute to clutch plays.
9. Lawrence Vickers (47%): I like mixing in single back formations here and there, but with a bruiser like Lewis, I'd lean more towards giving him an extra fullback to take out a defender. Pluto mentions that the coaches like his ability to catch the ball in the flat when Anderson is facing pressure from the defense and needs to dump the ball off. I get frustrated when I see Anderson throw the ball to our fullback considering all the weapons we have, but if it's between a pass to Vickers or an interception, I'll take the pass to Vickers.
10. Joshua Cribbs (6%): Bump it up. Cribbs sees a lot of work on special teams, but what happens every time we bring Cribbs in for a trick play? It seems to work. Maybe it's good that we don't over-do it, because the defenses will catch on to it. However, I find it hard to believe that with his abilities we can't work in several plays for him in the offensive set per game. And, when are we going to see him throw the ball?
11. Offensive Line: I'll list each offensive lineman's percentage:
Joe Thomas (100%)
Hank Fraley (100%)
Eric Steinbach (99%)
Kevin Shaffer (89%)
Ryan Tucker (61%)
Seth McKinney (45%)
Those percentages are clear indicators of a healthy offensive line. Our top three linemen played nearly every snap, showing strength on the left side of the line. Shaffer's numbers dropped a little when Romeo Crennel starting flirting with the idea of easing Tucker back into the lineup. And, of course, when McKinney went down, Tucker filled in at guard.
All six of those linemen are returning this season. On top of that, we'll have Rex Hadnot's services at our disposal. There is still reason for concern if one of our tackles suffer a injury, but overall, we're in very good shape in terms of depth and talent on the offensive line again.
Playing the percentages, there's no room for Wilson to be involved in the offense.In Summary
-Jurevicus should get Carter's playing time, while Stallworth will get Jurevicius' playing time. This is, unfortunately, where I believe Travis Wilson will be left out of the mix yet again.
-I'd like to see Harrison exchange some playing time with Wright.
-Rucker can provide more of an offensive threat when Winslow isn't on the field, but we can't just cut deeply into Heiden's time.
-The offensive line is even deeper than last year.
-Cribbs should be utilized more in offensive sets. Also, a brief tidbit Pluto mentioned with special teams: Chaun Thompson participated in 71% of our special teams plays, tops on the team. Pluto expects Shantee Orr to fill that gap.
0 recs |
13 comments
Comments
Wow…that’s a really smart way to target some of the problems we may have had.
One thing to note is that teams are going to catch onto the fact that when Cribbs is in the game he’s getting the ball. We need to have him in there more and then give the ball to someone else just to help disguise his presence.
by gahnki on Jun 8, 2008 10:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I couldn’t agree more. Every time he lined up in the backfield last year, the television announcers would say this…
“And…Joshua CRIBBS is suddenly in the backfield, could be a trick play coming up.”
“Anderson takes the snap and hands it off to Cribbs.”
Somehow we still were getting 10 yards each time he touched the ball, despite the obviousness of the situation. It’s not so much whether or not teams WILL catch on to stop those plays, it’s a matter of IF they catch on. IF they catch on, we need to have some reason to decoy him, and the only effective way I see doing that is by giving him more snaps (and not simply faking to him while keeping his percentage at a low 6%).
Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.
by Chris Pokorny on Jun 8, 2008 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really. Chris? You want to see more Harrison? [sarcasm]How surprising.[sarcasm]
Anyway, can’t argue with anything here…I hate to see TD Joe slowly getting phased out, but he is getting up there. Still one of the best slot men out there.
Can’t wait to see some two TE sets. And I hope you’re right about Heiden keeping his role…I’ve always been a big fan.
Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.
by BringBackKosar on Jun 9, 2008 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have visions of Harrison being involved in a game-winning touchdown against the Steelers. That’ll define his legacy :D
Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.
by Chris Pokorny on Jun 9, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
JJ asked for a decrease in PT so I don’t feel bad for him.
I can’t wait to see 3 TE sets in the redzone, only to turn them in to 1TE, 3WR sets with fade routes for Winslow/Rucker. I just don’t believe that Rucker will be as good at blocking as Heiden ever, and certainly not until at least towards the end of this season. Even if he has the potential to block, he’s still a rookie.
I want to see more Harrison averaging 6+yards per touch. He, like Cribbs, got the ball almost every time he was in the game, and still averaged well over 1 first down every two times he touched the ball. I think Wright stole some % points from Jamal Lewis because of Lewis being out ~2 games. I just don’t know what the Browns see in him. He is decent, but doesn’t do any one thing particularly well. Vickers is big and good at several things. Harrison is small but really quick. Lewis is a top-5 rusher. Wright….isn’t terrible, but I don’t see him as an every down back or a good change of pace. If we draft the RB of the future next year, I would love to see Wright cut instead of Harrison.
Don’t leave Wilson out of the mix yet. Stallworth has been the type of guy to make big plays, but he hasn’t been especially durable over his career. I doubt he’ll suddenly become Wes Welker. If Jurevicious’ time truly goes down, and we occasionally rest Stallworth in fear of injury, the following people could see more time: Wilson, Rucker, Cribbs, Harrison, Hubbard, Vickers.
I want to see more:
Cribbs
Harrison
Rucker
Stallworth
3+WR sets
Less:
Carter
Jurevicious
Heiden (slightly)
Wright
by rufio on Jun 9, 2008 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t even think Carter is on the team anymore is he?
by Roger Dorn on Jun 10, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s with the poor Houston Texans.
Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.
by Chris Pokorny on Jun 10, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, and Stallworth wasn’t on the team last year. You gotta go up from 0% if you are Stallworth, and down to 0% if you are Carter.
by rufio on Jun 10, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice wrap-up. As Mr. Dorn stated—Carter’s not on the team, but technically we’ll be guaranteed to see less of him (not sure if you forgot he was gone or if you were just stating that we WILL be seeing less, a.k.a none, of him).
Here’s the next catch regarding Wilson then. Let’s say that he happens to creep up towards Carter’s percentage of 35% of the plays next season. Last year, Anderson had horrible chemistry with him, and, Carter didn’t seem to get the ball his way too often with Edwards and Winslow still in the lineup. Any way I look at it, I can’t see him having a productive year. (Note: The reason I see Anderson passing to Jurevicius still with Edwards/Winslow on the field is because he is a proven veteran).
Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.
by Chris Pokorny on Jun 10, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know he’s very raw, but I’m intrigued by Paul Hubbard. If his hands rounded into shape, he has a skill set that could be very promising. He’s a project, yes; but potential does exist.
Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.
by BringBackKosar on Jun 10, 2008 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
...and you poke fun at me about Harrison!
I expect Hubbard to be on the practice squad the entire season. I can’t really get too excited about him until next year when Jurevicius retires, but it’ll be fun to get a look at him in training camp and the preseason nonetheless.
Dawgs By Nature - Find out why Pittsburgh still sucks.
by Chris Pokorny on Jun 10, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hubbard really needs to work on his hands. BUT he is dripping with the kind of potential that keeps WRs in the NFL. If he works at catching while he is on the practice squad, he could be in for some PT next year.
I don’t see Wilson breaking out or having a 1000 yd season or anything, but he might actually dress and/or play this year. I think 35% is optimistic. Romeo did single him out as someone who had a good round of OTAs, and probably more pertinently, I just don’t see Jurevicious, Stallworth, Edwards, and Winslow all staying healthy for 16 games. If a skill position player goes down, another one will need to play, and I think WIlson will get the first shot.
If there are 5 skill position players (minus QB) on the field at once, there would be a total of 500 percentage points for skill players, right? I’d like to see:
Edwards: 100
Winslow: 75
Stallworth: 60
Vickers: 45
Heiden: 45
Lewis: 55
Jurevicious: 35
Wright: 20
Harrison: 20
Cribbs: 15
Wilson: 15
Rucker: 15
Damn, that was hard. If any of the top 3 receivers go down, I’d expect Wilson to take their time as well. Pluto’s analysis of the playing time % is great. We have so many guys who can potentially be weapons now. I’m pumped.
by rufio on Jun 10, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 



















