Browns in for a fall?

PFP fluctuates wildly…I’m a big fan of Football Outsiders, but there is just way too many mistakes in predictions for me to wholeheartedly agree with their statistical measures. I read their website everyday and what they are attempting to do is admirable. However, I would put as much stock in them as any other well thought out source.

http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2007/7/10/211420/916#5317244

Link to my thoughts on the matter about a year ago and the ensuing chain

I don’t even have to read what you wrote and I completely agree.

Lines aren’t sexy, but you need good ones to win.

with the labor talks coming up, FA might not be a terrible way to build. We aren’t an old team, and we aren’t in salary cap hell, two criticisms of building through FA and trades. Savage is smart and makes KEY additions. He doesn’t just throw money away.

You forgot to mention;

He got DA for nothing.
He got Hank Fraley for almost nothing.
He got the best special team player in football, Joshua Cribbs for free.
He took 3/5 starting LBs in the draft (I am count Leon Williams as a starter).
He has overcome two freak injuries to “core” players in Baxter and Bentley.
He has uncovered gems late in the draft like McDonald, Williams and Vickers
He was responsible for 4 of the 6 pro Bowlers last year. (K2 and Pontibrand being from Butch)
He has brought in a brilliant offensive mind in Chud.

Yeah, he sucks

And by the way, who is a good drafter?

Now, let’s discuss the Steelers O-line:

Marvel Smith – probably the best lineman out of this lousy bunch, but has a bad back and is getting older
Chris Kemoeatu – replacing Faneca, will be almost impossible to have the same impact as Faneca
Justin Hartwig – Is Sean Mahan that bad? I mean this guy was cut by the Panthers who don’t exactly have a top notch line
Kendall Simmons – Yawn
Max Starks or Willie Colon – Either way, I am not losing sleep. Sweet transition tag on an average at best lineman, though

Run along “Dawgfan”

Edwards, Poole, Vickers, Wimbley, Jackson, Thomas, Wright, and McDonald

That’s 8 starters drafted in three years, all of whom are league average to superstar in performance/ability.

Yes. The 05 draft was terrible. Merriman, Edwards, Ware, that’s it. Should we have gone with JJ Arington, Reggie Brown, Stanford Routt, or Odell Thurman instead of Pool? Oh man, we could have had Chris Henry or Maurice Clarett! Criticizing Savage for not picking well in his first ever NFL draft is pointless because our roster is the deepest and most talented it has been since the Browns came back. And its only going to get better.

Savage has not only drafted 1 Olineman, try Isaac Sowells. He also drafted Jon Dunn as an OT.

He drafted Oshinowo, Chase Pittman and Melia Purcell as Dlinemen. He drafted Rubin this year to play DL also. They may not ever develop in to the kinds of players we need, but you can’t say he ignored positions. In the end, it doesn’t matter where the players come from, it matters how they play, how much they are paid, and how much wear and tear they have on them. Also, in a 3-4 you just need 4 really talented guys on the DL. So drafting DL is probably less important vs in a 4-3, and LBs (especially OLBs) is probably more important.

He hasn’t needed to draft linemen because he has found them elsewhere. He got Fraley for next to nothing. He had 2 pro bowlers come to the Browns in Steinbach and Bentley, and then found like 4 centers when Bentley went down. We have the best line in the NFL and they are all young outside of Tucker, so we don’t need to draft a whole lot of Olinemen. We even have 2 guys coming off the bench that I wouldn’t mind starting. Thats more people than I felt comfortable with than on the entire 2004 roster. He had 2 potential pro bowlers fall in to our laps on the DL this year, and picked up Shaun Smith (another young FA) for less than he was worth.

Pool is far from terrible. He is a capable starter and can contribute against the best teams in the NFL. He isn’t Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu, but he isn’t Anthony Smith, either.

Your posts are barely worth responding to, so I probably won’t be thinking up new ways to defend Savage. Don’t think that you’ve “won” or something if/when I don’t respond. I only care about wins that happen offline.

in guessing 9-7. I agree: we only beat a few good teams last year. This year it will be much harder. BUT, we were absurdly close to beating Pittsburgh, who always is one of the best teams in the AFC. The trick is beating them once, and then having the maturity and the confidence to know that once they get over that hump, they can play with anyone. This team has to learn how to always win the close games. It will happen, but i don’t know if it will be this year or the year after, but the talent is there and the confidence will come.

DAL-L
PITT-W
BAL-W
CIN-W
NYG-L
WAS-W
JAC-L
BAL-W
DEN-W
BUF-W
HOU-L
IND-L
TEN-W
PHI-W
CIN-L
PIT-L

We’d all have to be hypocrites to criticize Savage. The Cavs have done well despite fans hatred of Ferry as GM, and Indians fans are livid at Dolan/Shapiro/Wedge.

With the Browns, Savage’s job is safe regardless; I agree. The same can’t be said for Romeo Crennel, considering we called for his head if the Browns failed to succeed last year. Still; a bad season wouldn’t bring up “fire Crennel” discussions until some time in 2009, if necessary.

I can live with the heart-attack finishes—heck, even the Cowboys and/or Colts had a lot of close-game finishes last year (not everyone can cruise like the Pats, even with talent).

The biggest key remains the injury bug. Because no matter how great your drafts are, how good your FA pickups are, or how good your veterans are, if there are multiple injuries to starters, you can’t help it and yet will find yourselves struggling to compete.

Staying healthy is a pretty big issue, but players never try to get hurt. There is no sure fire way to avoid injury, you just gotta hope. On O it might not be as big of an issue as on D. We have backups at a lot of positions on O that are capable of filling in for a few games, and we have enough weapons we can lean on other players if someone goes down.

The entire D will look better because of Rogers and Williams. I promise. We could use a corner, but I doubt Ty Law would work for a few reasons. First, he is probably too slow right now to play CB. We would probably have to move him to S, preferably SS, where we have a potential pro bowler in Sean Jones. Law has always been a big, physical corner who doesn’t have the movement skills of a Champ Bailey. His speed was always “good enough” but never “great”. I doubt he is as fast now as he has been in the past. Maybe it would work if we are playing more Cover 2 this year, but he doesn’t seem to fit the type of corner we have previously gone after (we seem to place the emphasis on speed and quickness over size and physicality).

The real reason I think Law hasn’t signed on with the Browns or any other team in the NFL, though, is the money. I guarantee other teams are looking for a CB too. They have all thought about bringing him in. He has to be holding out for more than he is worth, or a multi-year contract. He must believe his body of work is good enough to warrant bigger money, and I don’t think we can afford it.

I don’t think its panic time. Savage has not tried to fix all of the problems in one year, and made smart moves every year. Law will be there all year as a FA. I would like to at least see what some of the rookie free agents look like against backups in the preseason before we look to a guy like Law.