I prefer the immeasurables heart, talent and dedication.

Good first post man, I didn’t know you were going to do a segment. I feel like I must change my screenname to my actual name now because you changed yours from DD and Chris uses his own name. Should I make the change?

And I agree. The Ravens have taken over the #1 spot of evil from the Steelers.

largely because Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are still cheating and killing people making most of the tackles and interceptions

Love it!

Shame & Irony that Football Outsiders are now ESPN football insiders. But their analysis is beyond compare. Not sure I’ll have the strength to buy the annual next year unless our season really goes up the launch ramp.

Good to see someone taking the reins with an FO-inspired segment.

Interesting stuff, good post, I hadn’t heard bout these newfangled stats, will you be doing this each week with our opponent?

So, how can a first installment be called a regular installment – the first of anything is the height of SSSS.

Anyway, I look forward to this becoming very regular. It’s a great overview and helps me think of what to look for and why. All of these numbers and analytical output is highly variable – heck, if BQ took the last several weeks to get fitted with a new cape many of these numbers will be invalid come Monday night. A fan can only hope…

Not to be too repetitive, but kudos on a great first post. I really like this idea, and will enjoy learning more about our opponents. I think you presented the information well, and I like how you tied the stats into the development of a potential game plan. I’ll certainly be watching for those screens to Harrison on Monday night.

Very nice report, DDogg.

The 5-7 kick returns per game and all the failed third down convertions really helps our ELITE Special Teams unit! YAY!!

Thanks for the kind words- I really do hope to keep this up and get deeper into these concepts and numbers. In response to some of the critiques or concerns:

There is a big caveat to this and any statistical analysis that is used as a predictive tool: context. At heart, I am very skeptical of the predictive power of statistics. By no means am I a math guy or a statistician. But as my understanding of “newer” advanced baseball metrics and statistical analysis has grown, I have learned how to use numbers to complement and enhance my understanding of the game. And I am fascinated by the potential of that approach to football. Football Outsiders has taken great strides to this end, and my goal is to build off of their foundation and add a Browns-centric, advanced statistical analysis to the football discussion.

Some of the numbers used here are weighted towards the most recent weeks in an effort to better represent how a team is playing NOW, versus the first few weeks of the season. These stats do a better job than others in normalizing things like strength of schedule and less meaningful yards. But an injury here, an improvement or adjustment there, and a couple of benchings, and the statistical analysis becomes a little less useful, unless you can keep these contextual issues in mind. Also, stats are a little less insightful in football than in baseball. The sample sizes are smaller and the skills and abilities for a football player is more difficult to boil down to a couple numbers.

In no way do I think this analysis can replace good X and O, rufio-style analysis or other, more traditional football conversation. I only intend to add this to the existing dialogue and provide another way to look at how our team is doing and how it matches up with our opponents.

You know I’m a stat kind of guy. I really like the FO stuff. But is DVOA predictive in the sense that you might be able to divine the outcome of a given game? That could be easily analyzed. My guess would be that looking at these would not predict upsets but would validate favorites. The tricky games would still be tricky (those with no obvious differences or off-setting differences in DVOAs on defense and offense). Thanks for taking the time to do this. It will be a welcome addition to an already great place to be.

we only let rice run 12 times against the bengals (about 8 catches though). cam is jeckle and hide with the run game (mcgahee and mcclaine hardly touch the ball this year). when we get behind cam gets rattled and flacco presses. our game plan last week was horrible.

cam has a bad tendency to throw deep just as rice gets the momentum swinging our way. very frustrating when you nickle and dime your way all the way down field and the O-Coord. gets cute and airs it out. waste of down and driver killer. happened all day against the bengals. not surprised if you take this one. we are very down and the fans are majorly disappointed.

just send cribbs out deep in the passing game. he’ll get held by our DB’s or be wide open. his choice. i think brady will come out chuckin it. i see a bomb on your first play from scrimmage. their going to let him get the rust off early. nothing to lose. advantage browns. ravens 1-5 on the road on MNF. 4-7 overall. yuck.

Great post.

Ray Rice scares the hell out of me.

Sorry to chime in late, but this is a terrific “first post”. After I got over thinking “who the bleep is Ryan Kelsey?”, I enjoyed the whole thing, and especially your sense of humor.