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A Look at the AFC Wildcard Race: What a Victory Over the Steelers Would Do

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been fortunate that for the past several years, they've basically received a two-game handicap on all of the other teams in the NFL. The Steelers could've been a .500 team at 8-8 in other divisions in the past, but the Browns have allowed their record to swing up to something like 10-6 instead.

It's Week 14, and the Steelers are 6-6 after having lost four straight games. Their playoff hopes are on thin ice, but they always seem to pull something off at the last second. Their "last-ditch run" begins tonight against the Cleveland Browns. Let's take a look at why the Browns could immediately put a dagger in that last-ditch run before it ever even gets started.

AFC Playoff Seeds

  1. Indianapolis Colts (12-0)
  2. San Diego Chargers (9-3)
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-3)
  4. New England Patriots (7-5)
    ---------------------------------------
  5. Denver Broncos (8-4)
  6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)

Still In the Hunt

Scenario

Let's assume that the Browns knock off the Steelers this week. Then, here are the other things to consider, knowing that the Steelers would be 6-7:

  • Denver has a tough match against the Colts this week, but after that, two of their final three games are at home against the Raiders and the Chiefs. If those are wins, the Broncos, at worst, would finish 10-6, which would be out of reach of the Steelers. However, if the Steelers and Broncos finish in a tie, the Steelers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over them.
  • The Jaguars play the Dolphins this week, and it'd probably be better if the Jaguars won. Jacksonville faces the Browns in Week 17, but have the Colts and Patriots before that. If they finish the season at 2-2 for a total record of 9-7, Pittsburgh would have to go 3-0 in their final three games to match them. Matching their record wouldn't be good enough, since Jacksonville would hold a better conference record.
  • Let's say the Dolphins win instead of Jacksonville this week. Miami has a tough/not-so-tough schedule coming up, depending on how tough you consider the below .500 Titans and Texans. If the Dolphins win one of those two games, they would have an 8-7 record heading into their Week 17 match against the Steelers. Pittsburgh would have to beat Green Bay and Baltimore just to have a shot at the head-to-head determining Week 17 game against Miami.
  • The Ravens play Detroit, Chicago, and Oakland. Even with their struggles, those are three relatively "easy games" that could put the Ravens in prime position to capture a wildcard spot. If the Steelers beat Baltimore in Week 16 to both finish 9-7, it wouldn't matter -- Baltimore's division record would be 3-3, while Pittsburgh's would be 2-4 (assuming a loss to Cleveland).
  • The Titans and Texans still have a shot, especially Tennessee with games against St. Louis, Seattle, and wildcard-contending Miami. A 3-1 finish would put them at 8-8 only though, and with a team like Pittsburgh beating them in Week 1, they are still a long shot.

If the Steelers win tonight, their path to the playoffs becomes easier. Instead of the other teams having the chips in their favor, it would almost be the Steelers' season to lose as equally as it would be the Ravens' season to lose. Odds are in favor of Pittsburgh winning tonight, but I felt like going through the evil, diabolical scenarios of ending the Steelers' playoff hopes nonetheless.

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Yes, let us dream while we still can. Brady Gradkowski Quinn might pull something off here.
Oh please…

by DPS on Dec 10, 2009 3:32 PM EST reply actions  

You know, using Gradkowski’s name in a derogatory way isn’t as effective as it once was….

by RelapsingDawgCatcher on Dec 10, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I see my initials are the same as the main man here. Don’t mean to cause confusion.
-Dustin

by DPS on Dec 10, 2009 3:32 PM EST reply actions  

huh?

Dawgs By Nature - Covering the Cleveland Browns on SB Nation.

by Chris Pokorny on Dec 10, 2009 3:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Perhaps the most random internet poll I’ve ever come across:

http://www.fanpop.com/spots/dead-poets-society/picks/show/184069/ever-seen-license-plate-with-initials-dps-on

Dawgs By Nature -- wher Hitler, apparently, 'did some good things'.

by golanbatrac on Dec 10, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions  

If the Cleveland defense were to step up tonight – and that’s entirely possible, I could see this being a game. Quinn appears to have 3 receivers he can work with, but it’s really going to depend on whether the right side of the O line can hold. If they can’t, all bets are off. The secondary and the right side of the O-line are subpar – possibly not even ready for the nfl. Yes, we have a lot of holes from the injuries, but so do the Steelers and they’re sliding, and away from Ketchup Field.

If they win only one more game, let it be this one. Otherwise, I’d say Mangini is toast.

by Cato on Dec 10, 2009 4:49 PM EST reply actions  

Guess I wasn’t too far off. As they say in Cleveland, if you’re going 2-14, make sure you at least beat the Steelers.

by Cato on Dec 10, 2009 11:49 PM EST up reply actions  

There is a trend I noticed in the AFC North that over the past few seasons in a late division game that the underdog knocks the superior team out of playoff contention. We did it to the Bengals in 06 and they did the same to us in 07. Here’s hoping we stick it to the sqealers in 09.

The sporting gods hate Cleveland, they give us false hopes, then yank it out from under us like a tablecloth.

by North Coast Flea on Dec 10, 2009 5:03 PM EST reply actions  

I hate the idea of BAL or DEN getting in the playoffs as much as I hate the idea of PIT getting in.

by JulioBernazard on Dec 10, 2009 5:58 PM EST reply actions  

STELLARS = PWNED!!!

Brownsyup

by Brownsyup on Dec 11, 2009 12:28 AM EST reply actions  

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