Evaluating the 2007 Draft
by BrownDawg1409 on Dec 5, 2009 1:05 AM EST
63 comments
There has been a LOT of scrutiny lately on our rookie draft class for a couple of reasons.
1) We're tanking at 1-10 and demand out rookies play in order to at least develop.
2) A couple of rookies either arn't seeing the field (see: Francies) or even suiting up (See: Veikune, Roboskie).
This has led to some frustrating debates on what could have been, what should have been, and what went wrong again. At this point, I'm starting to get sick of all the draft bashing. Mostly because people should wait a few years before judging busts. Partly because we don't have much else to do.
Having said all that, why not critique a class that's plenty eligible for critiscm? Hindsight is 20/20 after all.
In the 2007 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns select:
Joe Thomas LT, 3'rd overall
Joey T has been a S-T-U-D stud for us since he got here. He has man handled just about every rusher he's gone up against (most notably Jared Allen of the Vikings in week 1), and been to two straight pro bowls with a chance to go to a third. As far as picks go, he was a pretty safe pick (as admitted by, then, GM Phil Savage). We could have had Adrian Peterson, but I doubt too many fans would redo the pick since we have a franchise LT for the first time since coming back. The best pick since 1999 in my opinion.
Brady Quinn QB, 22'nd overall
Quinn's legacy: After holding out, watching from the bench for 1 1/2 seasons (save one relief series at the end of 07), going 1-1 before breaking his finger (ending his season), getting the nod for the start of 09' but getting pulled half-way through the Ravens game after going 0-2 as the starter, and sitting for five more games before finally getting the nod again and totalling a starting record of 0-5 (of start-to-finish games). Did I miss anything?
Quinn showed some stuff last year, but that was with a competent play caller. The start of the year, he looked like a rookie instead of a guy who's supposedly been developing on the sidelines per traditional procedure. Lately he's looked a little more poised in the pocket, with better sense of the pressure. I really think you could go either way here. On the one hand, he's been about average. On the other, the play calling sucks, and we lack some of the support young QB's need in order standout (i.e. impact players at the ball handling positions) and that he'll continue to grow. I'm in favor of keeping this guy for another year and seeing what he does with a full off season as the starter.
Could've had: Dwane Bowe, Eric Weddle, Anthony Gonzalez.
Eric Wright CB, 53'rd overall
Despite what announcers may have said, Wright is not a top 5 corner. But I still think he's a pretty good corner. For the most part, he seems to be in control of his position, doesn't get burned that often (when he does, I've noticed its against crafty veterns), and has made quite a few plays for the turnover game. However, his ability may not show since is may find that he has to cover his man for about 6 seconds. If we get some more defensive pieces (and start pressuring the QB consitently) I believe Wright CAN become a top 10 corner for sure.
As a side note, he came into his rookie season with character issues involving legal manors. So far he's been a choir boy.
Could've had: No one that really jumps out at me except Green Bay's RB Brandon Jackson so I'm very satisfied with this pick.
Brandon Mcdonald CB, 140'th overall
Where do I start? Looking around at the other picks (Steve Breaston, anyone?), McDonald still looks like a good pick. But he's been burned badly before, the victim of bad tackling, and benched (correct me if I'm wrong) 3 times only to be put back in later. I agree with Chris' evaluation during training camp, I think he'd make a great nickle back. But if we look at our corner depth, we don't really have a choice but to start him again. He does have a knack for interceptions though...think'd he'd play offense for us? *laughs*
Melia Purcell DE, 200'nd overall + Chase Pittman DE, 213'rd overall
I'm lumping these guys together because they've both pretty much become the same thing. CUT. We got these guys thinking that they'd add some depth to our line. I'm pretty sure neither is with the team anymore. But giving how low they were picked, it's somewhat to be expected. Not every 6'th + 7'th rounder can be a Tom Brady or a Marques Colston.
Syndric Steptoe WR, 234'th pick
Here's some interesting trivia: Chansi Stuckey was picked exactly one pick after Steptoe was by the Jets. Stuckey was part of our trade deal to ship Edwards out, and Steptoe was cut by the end of training camp this year. Coincidence? Well Steptoe was forced into starting action after Stallworth and Jurevicious both went down. Truth be told, he had a phenomanal training camp/preseason so he truly earned his way onto the team that year. But he should have been more of a 3'rd or 4'th wide out in spread formations that year. We never saw that same potential again. So here we are.
Notably: This was the year we got UDFA fullback Charles Ali. The guy was good, but I guess we didn't need him with Vickers.
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Getting Thomas and Wright makes this the best draft we have had since the team returned.
If Quinn doesn’t work out though, then it gets double negative points since we also gave up the 2008 first rounder to get him. If you trade up to get a player in the 1st giving up that year’s early 2nd and the next year’s 1st, you absolutely have to hit on that pick. So far it looks like we haven’t.
Yeah, it sucks for Quinn but you have to look at him for what we gave up as well as where we drafted him. I still have trouble believing either of our current QBs will be here next year, unless Quinn shows some dramatic improvement.
"This season has been everything most of us feared it would be[.]"
Mike Rutherford, Card Chronicle
http://www.cardchronicle.com/
Good post. I agree that it depends on Quinn because the guys you pick up in the first round need to be good. It was definitely a decent draft for the Browns though which begs the question: why did we get rid of Savage? Don’t answer that…
But here is one a bit off topic… I don’t know if anyone is watching the Alabama/Florida game but I like this QB McElroy. Maybe we should wait a year before getting a QB. They play a pro style with McElroy under center most the time. Makes all the throws and is very accurate. Quickness of mind to read and react. He has never lost a game in High School (played behind Chase Daniel so he only started his senior year) or College to this point. He is a junior. He is 6’3" 220lbs. If you look at Tebow, he has athleticism but they play a gimmick offense which is very different from a pro style to my eye.
Brownsyup
McElroy has had an OK year but not a great one. Alabama relies on Ingraham and the defense so I’m not sure he’s a guy who can make the plays necessary to succeed in the NFL. He wasn’t very good in many of their games this season.
I’d say his arm is average but I don’t value a cannon arm as the most important thing (see Anderson). It is just important that he be able to make all the throws and I saw enough down-field to feel that he can do that. What I like about him is decision making, accuracy, touch, pocket presence and a winning attitude. He is a junior, I wonder if he’ll come out this year as many are to avoid the rookie contract controls that many are expecting in 2011? If he stays for his senior year, he’ll be interesting to watch develop.
Brownsyup
I don’t have any beef with that. It’ll give us another year to look at Quinn. Only this time, he’ll (I believe) have better weapons at his disposal. If he doesn’t pan out after a full off season getting ready as a full fledged starter instead of fighting for the job, he’s a bust – as much as I HATE to say it.
by BrownDawg1409 on Dec 6, 2009 1:24 AM EST up reply actions
It’ll give us another year to look at Quinn
With Mangini, this isn’t the case. He’ll probably swap here and there again.
We could also pick up a veteran to help Quinn figure things out. I believe the right guy could help out a lot.
Brownsyup
He could teach him how to succeed with a less than stellar arm. Might not be a bad move, but does Pennington still think he can be a starter? That could cause a problem.
One baseball game, he came to the plate and heard a woman in the crowd shout to the pitcher, "I'll make you a chocolate cake if you strike out that 'so-and-so'!" Says Strong: "I hit that ball out of the park. Then I looked at her like, 'Do I get a cake now?' "
He is a pretty good college QB but not good enough for the NFL.
by TheRealSlimShady on Dec 6, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
So does every think that uif you get 3 solid to All Pro caliber players in a draft, then that draft is considered an A+ draft? Just curious, because I feel a team should hit on at least 4 picks to be an A draft, but thats just my opinion, thoughts?
Who are the 3 solid/All Pro caliber players? I count 1 All Pro and 1 solid player (Thomas and Wright.) Everyone else is below average.
Do you think he has had enough games/time to really establish himself? I still feel he is an unknown, some good, some bad, but not enough time to say yes, he sucks, or ok, he is going to be good. I just don’t think I’ve seen enough to say either way.
I think he’s less of an “unknown” than he was before but, like I keep saying, I think a big thing holding him back are weapons and playcalling. Let’s see what he does with a full off season getting ready to start as opposed to splitting reps and fighting for a job.
by BrownDawg1409 on Dec 6, 2009 1:26 AM EST up reply actions
Playcalling and receivers are certainly important, but I’d stop saying it if he got one season where it didn’t look like he was considered one of two starting QBs and pulled out on a whim.
by RelapsingDawgCatcher on Dec 6, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Hard to generalize. But Thomas is an A+++++ pick. Best player on the Cleveland Browns since….?
Wright is very good. VERY GOOD. A wonderful pick.
McDonald, given where he was selected, was a solid pick. He shouldn’t be a starting CB now, because of tackling and effort. But on talent and ball skills, he is a ok CB.
This was a boom-bust draft. Savage’s tenure with the Browns is defined by that day. (and, unfortunately, by his unprofessional antics). I was very excited by the draft. But Quinn cost so damn much in future picks. It is hard to call the draft a success unless Quinn vastly improves over the next 1-2 years.
fka "DaytonDogg". Now a contributor to SBN's Dawgs By Nature. www.dawgsbynature.com
We should count Quinn in the 2008 draft.
That is the pick we “used” on him.
Just a thought.
by Bernie19Kosar on Dec 6, 2009 3:44 AM EST up reply actions
McDonald looks like a good pick?
You gotta be kidding me….he is a terrible CB.
McDonald and Poteat are the reasons the Browns’ secondary is so terrible this year.
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Agree about Poteat, I wouldnt say McDonald is terrible, he is just ok, and not playing well. Also, are people picking on him because Eric Wright is pretty good, and no one wants to throw to his side?
They are picking on him because he is terrible.
He would be lucky to be a dime CB on most NFL teams.
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McDonald has done a decent job covering receivers before. His mistakes just seem to out shine his impact plays. I still think he’ll turn out fine once we get better pressure LB’s.
by BrownDawg1409 on Dec 6, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
McDonald is very good covering a guy one-on-one and when the ball is in the air. He is very bad at tackling anyone and not great it zone coverage.
He’s a 5th round pick. Considering that, I think it was a nice pick.
fka "DaytonDogg". Now a contributor to SBN's Dawgs By Nature. www.dawgsbynature.com
Right. For a 5th round pick he’s not bad. Without looking, I would guess that he’s been more productive than most 5th round picks that year.
It’s about perspective. He has managed to stick around on the Browns and get a lot of PT, but he should be a 3rd or 4th CB on a good team.
The only reason he might be more productive is because the Browns were playing him way more than they ever should have.
The Browns have had depth issues at CB since he got into the NFL and by default he had to play more than other 5th rounders, but once the Browns get more DBs, McDonald will play special teams (maybe) or just get traded or cut.
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But they’re playing him because he’s better than many other options out there, so he is somewhat productive. A guy playing in the NFL, even if he’s below-average, is still better than anyone not playing in the NFL, and most 5th round picks from his class are already out of the league.
by Buckeye Brad on Dec 7, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
If McDonald was good at covering WRs on one-on-one coverages, then other teams wouldn’t throw his way everytime during games.
He has below-average coverage skills at best, but he cannot tackle period.
If you cannot tackle in the NFL, then you should not be playing.
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Dawg Scooper: An Unofficial Cleveland Browns Source
Right.
I took a quick look at the 5th round of the 2007 draft. I would rather have Steve Breaston, Kevin Boss, and Brent Celek. If we got the 4th or 5th best player of a round, I would call it a win for the Browns.
Anytime we get any sort of meaningful PT out of a 5th rounder it is a “hit”.
That being said, I hate Brandon McDonald.
by Bernie19Kosar on Dec 7, 2009 1:48 AM EST up reply actions
Cherry picking guys like Steve Breaston who were picked after our later round picks is easy to do, and is criticizing too harshly.
A GM/draft class should be judged as follows when we have this type of separation from it:
-Did they make what look like egregious errors in the first 2-3 rounds on draft day? A GM should make logical choices with low downside, especially in the first round, especially in the top 10. If they make errors in logic or egregiously bad choices that high, the team will fail. For examples, see the Raiders’ drafts.
-Do those “errors” still look like errors a few years later? Mario Williams looks like the better pick than R. Bush right now. This was largely viewed as an “error” at the time, but it is looking like Casserly was correct now. Furthermore, there was some logic behind the pick of Williams (DE > HB, Williams was the better athlete, Williams was the more rare athlete) AND, this type of logic has proven successful in the NFL. If DHB is Jerry Rice 2 years from now, Davis can claim the same.
-Did they take players in the later rounds who had a chance to become NFL players? Sure Breaston looks like a better pick than anyone we got in rounds 5+, but that’s easy to say now. There’s a reason those guys lasted so far in the first place. A GM needs to hit on a few later round players, but you can’t act like that choice was egregious. I didn’t see what Savage saw in Oshinowo, Pittman, or Purcell, who were all probably bad choices. They never had a chance to succeed in the NFL. I can see what he saw in Steptoe and McDonald.
-Did they have a plan? Did the GM just go in shooting blind, or was there a method to their selections? Clearly, Savage wanted to build the “cornerstones” of a team. QB, LT, CB, Pass rusher, WR are largely considered the most important positions, the positions with the fewest amount of guys in the world available who can play them at an NFL level. Knowing we didn’t have a whole lot of talent, hoping Braylon and Kamerion would work out in two of those areas, Savage aggressively went after the remaining three cornerstone positions. Furthermore, he didn’t just take these guys because they played the positions we needed. They were widely considered talented players who had very good chances to succeed in the NFL. It wasn’t best player available, it was the most valuable player available. How good is the player, how badly do we need someone at the position they play, and what with their value be vs. a reasonable replacement?
-A GM should certainly not be judged by factors out of a GM’s control (scheme, coaching development, unforeseen ridiculous injury, etc.). A crappy team with bad coaches, bad schemes, and no leadership will never develop talent as well as a team with good coaching and leadership.
Furthermore, evaluating the success of a draft based on the development of the players (how good they are now) is also somewhat fallacious, because the success of the players chosen will vary regardless of how well a GM is actually doing their job. A GM should be judged on the choices they make at the time they make them (causality).
HOWEVER, good GMs consistently have more players develop into better players than their colleagues (correlation).
Making good choices is what a GM has control over, so they should be judged on that. But GMs who do consistently make good choices will end up with more talented players who will win more football games.
by rufio on Dec 6, 2009 8:59 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Thank God, some reason for a change. Have you been reading the craziness going on in here lately?
www.lowbrowsophisticate.com
Haven’t been keeping up really.
The end to my semester is crazy because we have to move buildings, so all of my studio classes had “hell week” a few weeks back, and this coming week is “hell week” for history classes. Plus, we had to have all of our equipment, offices, and studios packed by yesterday…
Basically I’m in the middle of about 3 “hell weeks”.
Art with an emphasis in photography. Heavy on the critical theory. I’ll probably be poor for a long time.
Nice, and my sympathies, as appropriate. :)
"Everybody loves progress but not a lot of people love change." - E. Mangini, 12/11/2009
by RelapsingDawgCatcher on Dec 13, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Of course I fully understand these points you’ve brought up, as I’ve brought some of them up myself when I defend Mangini’s draft this year (the long term plan, the situation we were in while picking). I must bow to the master on this one.
If it sounded like I was cherry picking, then I apologize. That was never my intention. I was just listing players that went a little later for comparison’s sake.
It is for these reasons that it ticks me off when I hear the heavey bashing that goes on concerning the 09 draft (aside from it being too early).
by BrownDawg1409 on Dec 7, 2009 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe “cherry picking” was too strong. Looking back and saying “Oh man, we could have had X” is very easy to do, though. I don’t think Savage is free from all criticism, but his 07 draft looks pretty damn good to me. There are some late-round picks he made where I do question what he was thinking.
I agree that it is too early to bash Mangini’s lone draft. Honestly, I loved what he did in the first round. Once Curry was gone, I would have jumped at the chance to trade down. I loved Mack.
It is pretty clear now why he spent so many picks on offense. I thought Robo was taken a little early, but I loved the Massaquoi and Veikune picks.
On film, Veikune had great hips for a DE, a good enough burst to be disruptive against O lines I respected (Notre Dame’s), and he had a really strong punch at the PoA, which he validated at the combine by putting up 35 reps on the bench. He showed some decent explosion both on film and with a 33" vert (compare to DeMarcus Ware’s 38"), 10 yard split of 1.58 (1.62 for Ware) He even had 9 sacks in his last college year (compare to 10.5 for Ware). I’m not saying he should be as good as Ware, or even has that kind of potential, but there was no reason to think he couldn’t play at the time of the draft. It was there on film, it was there in the testing.
Sure, Veikune and Robi (aside from maybe this last game) don’t look great so far, but I still thought they were solid selections at the time and have a chance to be good players.
It’s nice to have some logic in the forum again. Just plain, well thought out.
In any case, I hope the classes and all are going well.
Very true. It is easy to fall into a “we could have had X” trap. It’s my opinion that unless managment clearly had a choice between players we thought would have an impact (such as when player X is taken, but everyone believes player Y would have been just as valid).
My only beef with this year’s draft was that we initially had so little to work with. Providing Mangini’s still around, I think this could be a defining class of what he wants to do and accomplishes.
by BrownDawg1409 on Dec 7, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
You’ve gotta think he knows more about what this team needs at this point in time, too. I don’t care how much film he studied, being around the team for a full calendar year will give him a clearer vision of our needs.
He can’t tear much more down, so now it’s time to start building—the make or break part of his job (or whoever’s job it is come April).
Exactly correct. If we were to bring in a new coach, he’d have nothing but film to evaluate. Even if we bring in a Czar, that guy will have the benefit of having a coach who’s familiar with the personel and how well they fit the system. You just don’t get that with a new guy (unless it’s an in-organization promotion, and I’ll hurl if they do that).
by BrownDawg1409 on Dec 7, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think you’re misreading B19K’s post- I think he saying we ended up with the 4/5th best player of the 2007 R5 in McDonald, which is good going in anyones book.
He’s only using the cherrypicking as a way of evaluating how good McDonald is in relative terms.
Correct.
If we look back at the 2007 NFL draft and believe we got the 4th or 5th best player in that round, it should be a win.
by Bernie19Kosar on Dec 12, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
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