Draft; Offense or Defense?
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 26, 2009 6:13 PM EDT
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PrintI know that the general consensus is that the Browns need defensive help; I'm not saying that we don't. But should we address the offense or defense with the fifth pick in the draft?
I think that we can all agree that Curry will be off the board by the time the Browns pick. On defense we are looking at Everette Brown, Brian Orakpo, and B.J Raji. Two defensive ends who are supposed to make the transition to OLB's and one run stopper that is able to turn his motor on and become a full on stud.
On offense, there is really only one option. Micheal Crabtree. He has not run a 40 yard dash and has a foot injury that could linger.
I have looked at this problem from a couple of different angles. Was the defense just horrible at getting to the QB? Did they just never face passing offenses? The New York Times wrote an article about this, and described it as an adjusted sack rate. I don't think looking at sacks is the only way to decide if we need to draft an OLB.
Let's look at some numbers shall we?
The Browns faced 445 pass attempts this season. They only had 17 sacks. That works out to a sack every 27.8 pass attempts. That sucks. But would that number have been higher if our team had held some leads? Maybe the Browns would have gotten some pressure if the run defense would have forced some third and longs?
The Browns had the 30th scoring offense, 31st in total yards, 31st in pass yards, and 26th in rushing yards. As a comparison the Lions (LIONS!) were 27th in scoring offense, 30th in total yards, 24th in passing yards, and 30th in rushing yards. They went 0-16 in case you forgot.
Maybe the Browns should take the Arizona Cardinals approach. Outscore and Air Raid. The Rams, Cards and 16-0 Pats took this approach and won or came close to winning a Super Bowl. Don't forget the Bengals were reborn for a season or two under this idea. Two great WR's don't make for an amazing offense, but it is a pretty nice start. Joe Thomas, Stienbach, Quinn, BE and Crabtree are one hell of a start of an explosive offense. You can find a RB late in the draft and use an effective ground game to take advantage to safeties playing 20 yards off the LOS to protect from explosive WR's. Doesn't that sound easier than rebuilding a defense in one offseason?
The age old saying is that defense wins championships, and you have to run the ball. Well the people over at Advanced NFL Stats tend to disagree. They believe that a strong passing attack is the best measure of success. It is a pretty interesting read. Woody Hayes would punch it in the neck not agree with it.
I don't believe that the Browns should turn into Texas Tech, but I do believe that focusing our draft efforts on our offense would bring about the quickest turn-around. The 85 Bears would have a hard time winning with last years offense. I know that the Browns had a revolving door at QB, but other playoff teams had QB injuries. Titans, Steelers, New England, Dallas and Minnesota all had QB problems/injuries and were good offenses. Granted none of them had Bruce Gradkowski, but I doubt the Pats expected to lose Brady a quarter into the season and still have the 7th best passer rating as a team.
Out of the top 5 WR's in yardage this year, 4 were first rounders. In fact you have to go back three seasons to find a year when at least 60% of the top five pass catchers were not first rounders.
Athletic pass rushers can be found up and down the draft board. James Harrison, Justin Tuck, Joey Porter, LaMar Woodley, Robert Mathis and Trent Cole are just a few names.
It is rare to find a quality, productive WR outside of the first round. Steve Smith, Housh, Colston, Ocho, TO and Brandon Marshall are the rare finds.
I am not sold on Orakpo. I see a work-out wonder that can run around low end OT's. He should have dominated against Alex Boone. He didn't. His sack came in the last 15 seconds when the Bucks were throwing a Hail Mary and he was being blocked by a TE. Jason Smith shut him down in 2007. He has had a ton of injury problems. He missed 3 games as a freshman, 3 as a sophomore, 4 as a junior, and 3 as a senior. Doesn't sound like a guy who is willing to play through pain.
I think that Everette Brown is a bust waiting to happen. Toolsy, lanky, athletic DE from FSU that is going to turn into an OLB? Got one of those, and one is enough thanks.
Is Raji worth the pick? I am worried about picking a guy at 5 that seems to turn it on when he wants to. He dominates the Senior Bowl, yet just seemed to coast at times during the season. Wasn't that the exact thing we all heard about (look away if your squeamish) Gerard Warren? I worry about Rogers being motivated this season, how will he handle a young rookie making equal, or even more money than him? That doesn't sound like a winning formula. I know it is easy to say "Rogers needs to get over it and play hard!". I agree, but Rogers won't and until we are able to find another 385 lb NT with the feet of a chubby ballerina, I will let Rogers pout as long as he keeps getting blocked by 3 people. Bad asses get special privileges.
Crabtree on the other hand only had two games last year where he DID NOT score a TD. And those games he was playing with a bum ankle. Playing through pain. It wasn't just last year either, he only had 3 games his RS Freshman year in which he didn't score. Hands like Velcro. Size and speed to torment the Big 12. Best WR coming out of college since Calvin.
This team needs offense more than ever. We traded away our best possession pass catcher. We have a RB that doesn't seem very interested in running hard anymore. We have an aging C, RG, and RT. Outside of Edwards do we have anyone who would scare an opposing defensive coordinator?
I believe that drafting Crabtree will give the Browns a start on remaking this offense. Screw the whole "we need to run the ball" notion. Last years Super Bowl featured the worst rushing team and the 24th ranked rushing team. This is no longer the 80's.
Did I mention that I need a new jersey? Crabtree 81 sounds better than Raji 99 to me.
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Curry, Crabtree, or Orakpo
Il be happy with any of them
But i agree
Crabtree and Curry are the two players i would like the most
I am totally for drafting Crabtree, but you come to some pretty ridiculous conclusions about Orakpo and Brown.
Brown is 6’1.5", 256. How is that “lanky”? He could be a bust, but he isn’t lanky.
Orakpo didn’t shoot up people’s draft boards by half a round after the combine like Vern did. He was near where he is now all along the pre-draft process. He is a strong man and does more than run around low end OTs. In his ESPN scouting report, they say “Most of his sack production comes from him stunting/angling/twisting to the inside. " and I haven’t seen all of his sacks, but he looked like he used his hands well and had at least an adequate bull rush to me. I pointed out where in the other thread, and posted”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZTelDHwUwY" target="new"> this highlight which shows how he produced more than just 1 sack vs a TE against OSU.
Orakpo’s injuries are cause for concern, absolutely. You can probably rest assured that ManKok won’t take him because of that. Mangini has already shown he doesn’t like guys who get injured, and it would probably be best to have your #5 overall pick on the field for 16 games/season.
I guess my point is this on Orakpo. I went into the 2009 Fiesta Bowl with two feelings. As a Buckeye fan, I was very nervous to see Orakpo go against Alex Boone and company. As a Browns fan, I was so excited to see what Orakpo would do.
I watched him the entire game, since I believed that this was the match-up that was most important to the Bucks and the Browns. If I remember, he had a QB pressure early. Then it started. It was like watching Wimbley. Every down it seemed that he was trying to run around blocks. It became very frustrating. I was expecting to see a dominating performance. Every know and then he would make a nice play, like his tackle on Beanie behind the LOS, but overall it was lacking. That is the first time that I started to be “down” on Orakpo.
I would take Maybin in a heartbeat over Orakpo or Brown. If you watch Penn State this year, Maybin made big plays at big times.
Aaron Maybin and Maurice Evans (Who by the way will be a steal for any team in the 3rd-4th round) on the other hand, owned the OSU line and was constantly harassing Pryor and making plays. Maybin and Evans made TP stay in the pocket only allowing him 6 yards rushing. TP had 78 against Texas. I just have a bad feeling about “The Rak”.
And the lanky part about Brown was mostly aimed at Wimbley.
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 26, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Would it be inappropriate for me to ask if you thought Boone had been drinking before the PSU game?
If Evans’ character checks out, he would be a good pick.
I would say it is inappropriate but then the guy does this.
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 26, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I read somewhere that he was at one time drinking 50 beers in a night. Good lord. In all seriousness, I hope he gets some help with his problems. Maybe he can land in Minnesota and J. Allen can help him out.
50 beers in a night is pretty doubtful for anyone. Using an internet blood-alcohol calculator, I discovered that a 312 pound male (Boone’s listed weight at OSU) drinking 50 standard American beers in 8 hours (pretty long night of partying) would have a blood-alcohol content of .516. That’s well past the fatal limit, I believe. Reduce the number of hours drinking, or figure that he might be drinking imports (generally higher in alcohol content), and it’s even less likely.
If you think that is crazy then I guess you never hear about beer hound Wade Boggs?
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 27, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I am assuming given his history of getting arrested for drinking that he would have been building for a long time to that point. Would his tolerance and ability to filter alcohol out not have lowered that number significantly?
this is an interesting question. We all know people who can “hold their drinks” – drink a lot and not appear intoxicated at all. I think there is something to the tolerance idea. But, I think the calculation of blood alcohol content assumes a certain average: i.e., a 312 lb. male drinking at this rate will produce x blood alcohol content. There would certainly be individual variances, but it’s inconceivable that it could be enough to accommodate that much alcohol. I think the fatal level is somewhere around .40 – the highest score most breath analyzers will register. So, maybe he could drink that much and not die – but I wouldn’t bet on it. Even if were able to do it and survive, it’s walking a very thin line.
His kidneys will probably fail any day now
by BradyQuinnisBeast on Mar 27, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yea i would take Maybin over Okrapo any day.
by BradyQuinnisBeast on Mar 27, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
fundamentally, for no other reason than geography, the AFC North will always (in the absence of domes) be a defense and rushing division. there’s just no other way to consistently win games in dec. and jan. hitching our wagon to a cardinals model is a recipe for disaster.
i continue to believe that while the offense ranked MUCH worse than the defense last year, we are a player or two away from making humongous strides on that side of the ball. as for the defense, we literally need to improve at 5 positions (DE, 2 LBs, S, CB). i’m not opposed to crabtree, but i’m by no means sold.
I know that’s the common perception, but I just don’t think that’s true. I’ve read many players and coaches say that the offense actually has the advantage in the snow, despite most fans thinking otherwise, because the offensive player knows where he’s going while the defensive backs have to adjust to the reciever and that’s where the wet turf comes in to play. I’m not saying we should build a passing offense and not focus on the defense, of course, but I don’t think we need to be a rushing-focused offense just because we’re a northern team. The Patriots won their three Super Bowls mostly on the passing of Tom Brady, and Brett Favre had quite a bit of success throwing the ball in Green Bay.
by Buckeye Brad on Mar 26, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
As someone who has played a lot of sports in the snow and on crappy fields, I completely agree with the offense having the advantage in that type of condition.
BUT
If it is especially windy, the advantage goes to a defense.
Definitely agree on the Tom Brady/Brett Favre point. McNabb and the Eagles is another example, and it snows a lot in Denver, too. Their passing O was pretty good last year and the Broncos almost made the playoffs with nothing else besides a passing offense.
Que the questions on Brady Quinn’s arm strength…
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 26, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
If it is especially windy, the advantage goes toa defense.Phil Dawson.
by woodsmeister on Mar 27, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
i don’t mean to imply that you CAN’T be successful in a northern climate with a passing offense. my point is that you’re not going to build a consistent winner in the AFC North if your game plan is based around the pass. it just can’t work. on any given day, the wind can blow (see: 2007, 2nd bengals game), the footing can be shitty, the ball can be extra slick…you’re playing the short side of the odds if you don’t have a run game that you can at least reliably fall back upon. i’m not saying abandon the pass, but defense and the run have to be the drivers.
and let’s be honest…those pats teams (except the 18-1 squad) were more about defense than anything else. as for favre’s success…he certainly racked up the individual stats, but that team was constantly searching for a running identity, and only made 1 super bowl as a result.
by DontCallMeJoey on Mar 27, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The 18-1 squad still set a lot of records and was the ridiculously overwhelming favorite in the Super Bowl, and it still took Asante Samuel screwing up an INT and the helmet catch play to beat them. They definitely did not have the short side of the odds.
No one is saying we should aim to have a terrible defense or to go all Philadelphia on the run game, but I still disagree that you can’t build a team around the pass in a climate like Cleveland’s. There are far too many examples of pass-centric teams who have been successful in cold climates. The reason the Bengals (who just happen to be the only pass-centric team in the AFC North right now—arguably) aren’t successful isn’t because of the way they built their team, it is because the organization is terrible from the owner all the way down to the ball boys.
I think that to have the best chances at winning a Super Bowl you want a really good defense. The better defense has won the super bowl every season recently that I can remember except for maybe the Rams and the Colts (but that was probably because Chicago’s QBs were terrible that year). NYG, Pit, Tampa Bay, NE, Bal all had better defenses.
Still getting to the Super Bowl or even just the playoffs sometimes requires only a great QB.
well, certainly there are exceptions to the rule. on that 18-1 patriots team you had 2 of the best offensive performances in the history of football b/w brady and moss, and i can’t imagine anyone expecting a team to perform at that level consistently. but it’s impossible to deny that belichick built the 3 super bowl winners around defense and rushing/ball control offense (those short, west-coasty passes are referred to by many as extended rushing plays).
i do realize that no one is suggesting we build the passing game at the expense of all else. i give the people here enough credit to know that. my point is that i’m more inclined to go defense early and often, as opposed to picking crabtree at 5, b/c 1.) we need more help on defense and 2.) acquiring assets on defense and in the run game will generate better returns for us in our division. i’d be interested to see your list of pass-centric teams that play outdoors in crappy climates that have been “successful”…i’ll bet my list of non-pass-centric success stories dwarfs yours.
again, i contend that if you want to be consistently competitive in the AFC North, you have to build to run block and stop the run. you can be a one-off success (‘04 bengals) w/ a pass happy offense, but you’ll not be a consistent power.
by DontCallMeJoey on Mar 27, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I also would rather build a great defense. But I don’t see anyone who will be available at 5 this draft that would be able to step in and turn this defense around.
I just think that the value is in Crabtree.
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 27, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I just think that the value is in Crabtree.
This. We can’t reach for a defensive pick because we don’t want to be a “passing team”. You take the best player available, and if Curry is gone I think that will be Crabtree. I don’t see anything wrong with wanting to have two good recievers.
by Buckeye Brad on Mar 27, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with the value in Crabtree. If you look at ‘07, we had a number 2 WR in JJ. That season speaks for itself. If you look at ’08, JJ was hurt and Stallworth didn’t show up, and neither did the offense. So drafting Crabtree, although he would be a rookie, would give us a number 2 WR that at least would garner some respect from opposing defenses as the season progresses if they didn’t take him seriously when the season begins. If Stallworth plays, as he has not been charged yet from my understanding, Patton can serve as a 4th WR or a 3rd if Stallworth is charged.
There are a lot of different things to talk about here. Can cold-weather teams win with an emphasis on the passing game? Do teams build great defenses and running games by drafting defensive players and RBs/OL “early and often”? Are teams better off drafting for need, the best player available, or out of a select group of positions in the first round?
the steelers in 2008 passed for their offense, they didn’t run. 23rd in the NFL in rushing, I believe. They also spent recent 1st round picks on a QB, WR, RB and TE in the last 5 years—only Timmons was a 1st round defensive pick in those 5 years. That’s AFC north, cold climate, 1st round draft choices on offense and a Super Bowl ring.
You’re kidding yourself if you don’t think Joe Flacco had anything to do with turning the Ravens from the team that lost to the Dolphins to contenders in the AFC. Yes, that team is built around their D, but they were built around it in 07 and they didn’t do so well.
Green Bay with Brett Favre. Every year of his career. They threw the ball. From 1992 to 2007 Favre had at least 3227 yards passing and 471 attempts. They won a SB in 97, and got back in 98 losing to the Broncos who had Jon Elway and a pretty good passing offense if I remember correctly. I know they had Davis on the ground, but he was drafted in the 6th round. Those were two passing teams who won in cold weather.
Philadelphia. McNabb and Westbrook have been the big names on that team for years, with Dawkins as the only (aging) big name on D. They manufacture pressure on defense and the players on D don’t matter as much as the scheme does. Westbrook is so good in that scheme because of his abilities in the passing game, not because of his ability to grind it out on the ground. If you take McNabb away from that team over the past 8 years and they aren’t anywhere close to as successful as they were.
The idea that only running and defense teams can win in the cold is mystification, not fact. The only teams over the last 15 years to play in the super bowl with bad QBs are the Bears (Grossman), and the Ravens (Dilfer). Only Dilfer won, and that was with arguably one of the best defenses of all time. That, to me, is the anomaly, not great QBs and passing offenses having success.
i feel like you’re rearranging my argument in order to fit your response. i don’t believe i’ve said that ONLY running and defense wins in the cold, nor have i come anywhere close to suggesting that we take RBs “early and often”—we haven’t discussed RB’s, but i happen to think a first-round RB is a borderline waste of a pick.
the central driver of successful shitty-weather teams has to be run and D. that is what i’m saying. i am not trying to say we should ignore the pass. i am not trying to say we should draft solely defense…i am saying that i think we have to look very hard at the best defensive players available for the two reasons above.
by the way, if you look at football outsiders you’ll see that ’08 PIT had the #1 defense in football, accompanied by the #15 rush offense and #20 pass offense.
by DontCallMeJoey on Mar 30, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I said RBs/OL and meant “people who can contribute to the running game”. Sorry if that was confusing.
PIT also got to play us twice (once when we were starting Gradkowski) and Cincinnati twice. Do FO adjust for that? I really don’t trust any stats—even FO—to tell the whole story in football. Absolutely no denying pittsburgh’s D was one of if not the best in the NFL last year, though.
I guess I still don’t really understand what you are saying. Do we want a great defense? Absolutely, and everyone does, so we should try to improve our defense.
But when I think of a team whose “central driver” is “run and D”, I think of the Ravens when they won the SB, not a team like pittsburgh last year whose defense was great but won largely because of big ben—and weren’t particularly centered around the run on offense. They certainly don’t win that Super Bowl if he and Holmes are not passing like they were. Is that Baltiore team not what you are talking about?
I think it is clear that “defense wins championships”, cliche as it is. People don’t have a lot of success against playoff-quality teams without half your team, and defense is half your team. Still, even in any kind of weather a great passing game or a great QB almost singlehandedly can get you in to the playoffs. Peyton and Brady will almost always be in contention for the playoffs. SB winning teams usually are at least solid in every phase of the game, no?
Can a Run/D-centered team (like those SB Ravens) win in the NFL? Absolutely. Do we have to have that type of roster to win just because we play at home in Cleveland? No. Furthermore, does that mean we should always draft D or someone who will contribute in the running game high in the draft? Not to me.
Clearly, we have to look at the best defensive prospects in the draft, many of which will be there at #5. Still, in the end if we feel that a defender could be a good NFL starter and Crabtree could be the best WR of his generation, we have to go with Crabtree and location doesn’t play in to that decision if I am running the team. I would even sacrifice Crabtree’s potential for a more sure bet (like Curry), I just don’t know if a more talented guy or more sure bet on D will be there at #5. Raji, Orakpo, Maybin, Brown all have question marks but could all be great players. I trust ManKok to evaluate them better than me, and will be perfectly happy with any of those or Crab.
Additionally, I don’t think that what position you draft early determines what type of team you are (as you say, RBs can be found aplenty outside of the 1st, so drafting a RB high doesn’t mean you are a running team). Because I believe you need at least good players at every position to increase your odds of winning the SB, and we already have impact players at positions of importance to our team (LT, QB, WR[knock on wood], NT) and other positions of importance don’t seem to have a home run in this draft (CB/impact S, pass rusher) I just think we should pick up the most talent wherever we can, some of which is bound to be on defense.
If you don’t agree with that, we just disagree and thats fine with me.
by rufio on Mar 30, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
that ravens SB team is pretty much the poster child for this vision i have. and the PIT ‘05 team, the TB team, NYG, all the Pats teams that won…last year’s PIT team, to a lesser extent. granted, these teams all had varying levels of pass competence, but i think it’s very hard to argue that they all emphasized defense and run/ball control offense.
my initial comment was intended to refute the poster’s idea that we could build a cardinals-like air attack. this comment:
Screw the whole “we need to run the ball” notion.
doesn’t work in the AFC North. that doesn’t mean we should ignore the pass, but i don’t think it can be our whole offense. passing in the AFC North is not an a priori recipe for failure…clearly you can have success passing the ball in this division, but it is fleeting. we can’t build primarily on the pass, not if we want to be consistent.
funny enough, i think we agree on a lot of what you say here.
by DontCallMeJoey on Mar 30, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree with you to some extent, but if you have holes you need to fill, you need to look at those too.
My draft Strategy would be to come out of Day 1 with an OLB, WR, and the best other player thats not a LT or QB.
For WR we could pick up Crab at 5, Nicks at 36(if hes still there), or Robiskie or Ramses Barden at 50
For OLB we could take Maybin, everette Brown, or Okrapo at 5, Connor Barwin or Clay Matthews(if either are there) at 36, or Cody Brown or someone like him at 50.
For the other picks we can take whoever is the best left but we should consider taking an RB or S sometime
by BradyQuinnisBeast on Mar 30, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
The Steelers ranked 23rd in the NFL last year. I realize that is kind of nit picking, but I believe the NFL is changing. With all of the illegal contact rules, the NFL has become an air attack league. The weather can get bad yes, but I remember Kelly Holcomb throwing for 400+ in bad weather.
I am not saying that we abandon a running game, I just think that we have a chance to grab a difference maker at WR. If there was a differnce maker at RB or CB I would be all for taking him. I just think that Crabtree and 2nd round OLB > Orakpo and Robiskie.
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 26, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
We don’t need to improve at DE or CB, and you could argue that we are set at one of those 2 LB positions for 2 or so years.
If Robaire Smith comes back and is close to what he was, and if Corey Williams is anything close to what he was in GB, with Shaun Smith and Mosley in the rotation and Rubin there to spell Rodgers I think we are ok. Obviously a Glenn Dorsey or Justin Tuck would be great to get, but it would be a “want”, not a need. Even if Williams or Smith don’t return to form, we will be ok, I think. Not great, but ok.
I think our CBs are good and if we can actually get a pass rush, they will certainly be good enough. Imagine if they were playing with a Polamalu at S, or even something equivalent to a healthy Jones and Pool?
Barton can start at ILB and he will be an upgrade over last year. Not phenomenal, but at least a stop gap.
i totally whiffed on the barton signing…you’re right. we addressed one of the LB slots there, and so are only looking for one more LB to shore up that unit.
on the DE, i can’t put any faith in robaire, at his advanced football age, coming back full strength from an achilles injury. i hope he proves me wrong, but until he does i’ll stand by the need to upgrade at DE. shaun smith is not a starting DE in this league…at least not on a quality team…and those other guys are all career backups.
CB, i think mcdonald is still punching above his weight as a 2nd corner. if we move him to the slot, to the nickel back, and upgraded at CB2 we’re a much better defensive backfield. i may concede that that is more of a want than need, but it’s pretty close.
by DontCallMeJoey on Mar 27, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I personally love McDonald. I think that he took a lot of misplaced blame last year.
We could use a big CB though, but I don’t see one at the 5 pick.
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 27, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
If we want to address the CB pick, the second round would be a good time
by BradyQuinnisBeast on Mar 27, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
With 2 out of 3 DL playing at a high level, upgrading the 3rd can wait a year, especially with all of the other needs we have that are greater than DL. I want to see Corey Williams doing some one-gapping on a healthy shoulder. If Williams never turns out like we thought he would, we probably need help. Shaun Smith can at least hold his own against the run and yap at the LT and draw some flags. Or punch people in the head. Plus, we could replace him in passing situations.
I think I would take a DE as early as the 2nd round, but it would all depend on who was on the board at that point.
If we had an actual pass rush outside of Rogers, do you know how much better McDonald would look? There were a few miscommunications last year that I don’t think were his fault but ended up costing us some big plays. He did give someone the matador tackle in the Buffalo game. Still, depending on who is on the board, I would probably take a S, a LB, or a WR over a CB. I trust him more at 2nd CB than Steptoe at 2nd WR or Hall at LOLB, and I don’t think the value of a replacement over McDonald would impact a game as much as a replacement over some of the other players we have.
The hard part about CBs is that really good CBs rarely get drafted outside of the 1st round, too. How many of the guys drafted outside of the 1st do you recognize as awesome CBs? Samuels, Vasher? Bly? I think that’s another need that can wait a year, at least until there are some CBs that don’t have question marks.
you make an excellent point about the available options as far as CB goes (although i can’t believe you left demario minter off the list of homerun non-first rounders). at this stage, there just isn’t that much out there to be used to replace/upgrade over mcdonald.
what i’m trying to say, though, is that we need a lot of upgrades in the defense—i’m arguing substantially more than on the offense—and as such we should focus on defense in our forthcoming player acquisitions, including the draft.
by DontCallMeJoey on Mar 27, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree about the need for upgrades in defense. To balance that some, though, part of their shortcomings in the past season have to be the result of being on the field all the time. So, some argument can be made that upgrading our offense in itself helps the defense, especially if we can eat up the clock when necessary. At some point in this draft I think it would be helpful to get a bruiser to back up/replace Lewis. 4th round might be too late to get one.
No doubt that on paper it would be nice to get defensive upgrades, CB among them. Thank the lord Cousin isn’t our nickel back anymore.
BUT, if there aren’t good players available where we are picking who are going to have an impact on the team, then why choose someone just based on need? Why “focus” player acquisition anywhere and ignore better prospects who don’t fit our “focus”? Given two players of equal, or close to equal talent sure, we should take the defender (probably the one who could help with the pass rush). But if we are in the 2nd round and we can draft Alex Mack or some DB who isn’t talented enough to play, we should go with Mack because he is going to make a bigger impact on the team. If the choice was Mack vs. Larry English, I would have no problem taking English.
The 5th overall pick needs to make a substantial impact on the team. When we are picking that high we simply can not take a player who won’t make an impact. A smart coach could find a way to use another player at any position besides LT and QB. That isn’t to say Crabtree is the only guy who will do that (I honestly think Orakpo or Raji would) but just that we can’t limit our pick to a position or even offense/defense.
Later, I think that the difference in perceived talent and “value” between players is smaller, and the room for error is greater so then we can get in to drafting more based on need.
the reason to focus player acquisitions in a certain place is the very simple economic concept of scarcity. we have a scarcity of resources (be it roster slots, $ under the cap), and as such we need to allocate those resources in the manner through which we will generate the best return. it’s my position that the best return will MORE OFTEN arise out of a defensive acquisition than an offensive one. that’s why we need to focus on that side of the ball.
i am not saying that we should throw out all of the offensive evaluations. if the marginal return at a specific spot is greater for the best offensive player available than the best defensive one, then clearly we should take the offensive player.
by DontCallMeJoey on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
That makes sense, so what sort of evidence is there that the best return comes out of a defensive player?
this is an awesome question. let me clarify one thing, though: when i made the “best return” statement above, i should have said that that was specific to the current state of the browns. it was not intended to be a blanket statement about all of football (although that would be a really interesting philosophical discussion).
i’ve tried to answer this once or twice already, and it just turns into a really long, convoluted monologue, so i’m going to try to be brief here. qb, lt, wr1 are set. rb is not a top-10 or big money acquisition position anymore. wr2 is the only position that could provide real value for us in the 1st round (crabtree).
as discussed elsewhere, we could use upgrades at 1 (at least) LB slot, S, 1 DL slot, 1 CB slot. there are several LBs (curry, orakpo, brown) and 1 DL (raji) and maybe even 1 DB (jenkins) who could provide major value for us in the first round. what’s more, the examples of great LBs and DBs that come outside of the first day are much slimmer than great non-LT OLs and RBs.
combine that with my beliefs about the style of play in the AFC North, and there’s the rationale for the better return statement.
that’s the short version.
by DontCallMeJoey on Mar 30, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I am buying it a lot more when applied specifically to the Browns at this particular moment in time, but probably mostly because of the talent available at #5 and because our offense is 1 season removed from being the closest thing to good football I have seen from the new Browns.
Still, the only defensive guy I see who is clearly in the upper echelon of talent in this draft is Raji, and that’s only when he is playing with his nasty streak. This is, of course, assuming that Curry is gone by #5.
With CBs, picks outside of the first two rounds rarely are able to do their jobs really well, true. I can only name Asante Samuel, maybe Ellis Hobbs, and Foxworth. Vasher? With DEs/pass rushers, 3rd round/later picks who do their jobs really well seem at least slightly more plentiful: Justin Tuck, Jared Allen, Robert Mathis, Jarvis Green, Aaron Kampman, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Adalius Thomas, Mike Vrabel, both pittsburgh starting DEs.
Our DL might be okay but it is hard to pass on raji or even Tyson Jackson(if he slips to the 2nd round)
I agree that our CBs are good, and wasnt it both wright and mcdonalds 2nd year? And then you add Poteat and Ivy and we look solid at CB
by BradyQuinnisBeast on Mar 27, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
DA and the #5 to the Lions for Curry?
I would make that deal in a heartbeat. Curry is easily the best player in this draft.
If we could get a 2nd rounder for DA on draft day, wouldn’t it be better to stay at five and use the extra pick on a defender?
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 27, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Bernie Kosar should be the Browns coach or the offensive cord. You were the best at ad-libbing and making up plays that worked. I agree go with the offense and Michael Crabtree.
bernie’s coaching success so far makes this an obvious choice…
by DontCallMeJoey on Mar 30, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve been wondering how some of the younger LBs currently on the roster, specifically Hall and Bell will turn out with a new coaching staff and the additions of Barton and Bowens to provide them some on-field pointers. We might even see more out of Leon Williams under the new regime.
If that’s the Mankinis plan, we could very well see the initial pick go to Crabtree with a RB second and the third pick going to the best DB/DL/LB left on the board.
It seems that a lot of folks don’t think much of Williams, but I think he’s a better player than most give him credit for. Is it possible that the current regime saw enough of Hall and Bell to consider them viable options?
It seems that a lot of folks don’t think much of Williams, but I think he’s a better player than most give him credit for. Is it possible that the current regime saw enough of Hall and Bell to consider them viable options?
I personally think that Leon Williams is a very interesting prospect. I have always thought that he should be a OLB and put his athleticism in play. At 6-2 250 he has the size to play OLB.
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 29, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
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