Savage's legacy - by the numbers

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Savage's legacy - by the numbers

By dvd1204 on Sep 23 2009, 3:50p 50

I've been a Savage apologist and I was not happy to see him go, but there has been an ongoing debate about how well or poorly he did his job. A simple metric that has been used on this site is the number of players currently on the roster. I decided to look into this further and have run the numbers for all 32 teams'draft picks from 2005 - 2008 (the Savage drafts) and compared them to the current rosters as listed by ESPN. The results are listed below. I don't know what conclusions can be made from these results because it has no real measure of the value of the pick. For example, Charlie Frye shows up as a miss against Savage as a 3rd rounder, but backup QB Alex Smith (#1 overall in 2005) shows up as a hit for the 49ers. I'd argue that both were misses, but it is much harder to start quantifying what is a "hit" and what is a "miss", so we are left with the metric of "is the player on the roster of the team that drafted him?" (note: players traded after draft day like Jay Cutler also show up as misses). Here are the results in descending order by overall hit rate. Also provided is the hit rates by rounds (all data obtained via ESPN):

Rank	Team	# OF HITS	# OF PICKS	Overall HIT RATE	First	Second	Third	Forth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh
1	New York Giants	21	26	0.808	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.25	0.667
2	San Francisco	22	35	0.629	1	1	0.833	0.6	0.5	0.667	0
3	Baltimore	21	34	0.618	1	0.75	0.5	0.714	0.75	0.6	0
4	San Diego	16	26	0.615	1	1	0.667	0.5	0.5	0.25	0.4
5	Green Bay	26	43	0.605	1	0.625	0.8	0.714	0.167	0.714	0.429
6	Seattle	18	30	0.6	1	1	0.667	0.8	0.5	0	0.429
7	Carolina	21	35	0.6	1	0.75	0.571	0.333	0.429	0.333	0.667
8	Dallas	18	30	0.6	1	0.333	0.5	0.5	1	0.333	0.6
9	Oakland	18	30	0.6	0.75	1	0.667	0.6	0.5	0.333	0.5
10	Buffalo	19	32	0.594	0.75	1	0.75	0.4	0.5	0.75	0.375
11	Washington	16	27	0.593	1	1	1	0.5	0.333	0.625	0.167
12	New York Jets	16	28	0.571	1	0.5	0.667	1	0.333	0.2	0.25
13	Houston	15	27	0.556	0.75	1	0.667	0.75	0.25	0.5	0.25
14	Indianapolis	19	35	0.543	1	1	0.2	0.4	0.286	0.571	0.75
15	Atlanta Falcons	19	35	0.543	1	0.8	0.667	0.667	0.4	0.143	0.4
16	Philadelphia	20	37	0.541	1	0.857	0.4	0.714	0.5	0.167	0.25
17	Arizonia Cardinals	14	26	0.538	1	0.75	0.2	0.667	0.5	0	0.5
18	Chicago	18	34	0.529	0.667	0.6	0.8	0.75	0.667	0.333	0.125
19	Tennessee	20	38	0.526	0.75	1	0.25	0.7	0	0.4	0.5
20	Pittsburgh	15	32	0.469	1	0.667	0.4	0.5	0.333	0.5	0
21	New Orleans	13	28	0.464	1	0.667	0.333	0.5	0.2	0	0.6
22	Denver	12	26	0.462	0.667	0.5	0.25	0.5	0.333	0.333	0.667
23	Minnesota	12	26	0.462	0.5	0.833	0	0.667	0.25	0.5	0
24	St Louis	17	37	0.459	0.75	0.5	0.571	0.6	0.2	0	0.444
25	Cincinnati	14	32	0.438	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.5	0	0.2	0.429
26	Cleveland	13	30	0.433	1	1	0	0.2	0.5	0.286	0.4
27	Miami	13	31	0.419	0.75	0.4	0.5	0.5	0	0.4	0.25
28	Tampa Bay	15	39	0.385	0.75	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	0
29	Kansas City	13	35	0.371	1	0.333	0.667	0	0.333	0	0.167
30	Jacksonville	11	30	0.367	0.75	0.75	0.667	0.333	0.286	0	0
31	Detroit	11	30	0.367	0.75	0.5	0.6	0	0.2	0	0.2
32	New England	11	33	0.333	1	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.25	0	0

By this simple metric Savage was a little below average (21st) until Ruckerwas released and that dropped him to the position you see here. Perhaps the most interesting result of this exercise is that there appears to be some correlation to how well teams are performing. One could argue, for the mostpart, that the teams at the top of this list are on the rise and the teams on the bottom are in decline or standing still at best.

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