FanPost

Savage's legacy - by the numbers

 

 

I've been a Savage apologist and I was not happy to see him go, but there has been an ongoing debate about how well or poorly he did his job.  A simple metric that has been used on this site is the number of players currently on the roster.  I decided to look into this further and have run the numbers for all 32 teams'draft picks from 2005 - 2008 (the Savage drafts) and compared them to the current rosters as listed by ESPN.  The results are listed below.  I don't know what conclusions can be made from these results because it has no real measure of the value of the pick.  For example, Charlie Frye shows up as a miss against Savage as a 3rd rounder, but backup QB Alex Smith (#1 overall in 2005) shows up as a hit for the 49ers.  I'd argue that both were misses, but it is much harder to start quantifying what is a "hit" and what is a "miss", so we are left with the metric of "is the player on the roster of the team that drafted him?" (note: players traded after draft day like Jay Cutler also show up as misses).  Here are the results in descending order by overall hit rate.  Also provided is the hit rates by rounds (all data obtained via ESPN):

 

Rank Team # OF HITS # OF PICKS Overall HIT RATE First Second Third Forth Fifth Sixth Seventh
1 New York Giants 21 26 0.808 1 1 1 1 0.667 0.25 0.667
2 San Francisco 22 35 0.629 1 1 0.833 0.6 0.5 0.667 0
3 Baltimore 21 34 0.618 1 0.75 0.5 0.714 0.75 0.6 0
4 San Diego 16 26 0.615 1 1 0.667 0.5 0.5 0.25 0.4
5 Green Bay 26 43 0.605 1 0.625 0.8 0.714 0.167 0.714 0.429
6 Seattle 18 30 0.6 1 1 0.667 0.8 0.5 0 0.429
7 Carolina 21 35 0.6 1 0.75 0.571 0.333 0.429 0.333 0.667
8 Dallas 18 30 0.6 1 0.333 0.5 0.5 1 0.333 0.6
9 Oakland 18 30 0.6 0.75 1 0.667 0.6 0.5 0.333 0.5
10 Buffalo 19 32 0.594 0.75 1 0.75 0.4 0.5 0.75 0.375
11 Washington 16 27 0.593 1 1 1 0.5 0.333 0.625 0.167
12 New York Jets 16 28 0.571 1 0.5 0.667 1 0.333 0.2 0.25
13 Houston 15 27 0.556 0.75 1 0.667 0.75 0.25 0.5 0.25
14 Indianapolis 19 35 0.543 1 1 0.2 0.4 0.286 0.571 0.75
15 Atlanta Falcons 19 35 0.543 1 0.8 0.667 0.667 0.4 0.143 0.4
16 Philadelphia 20 37 0.541 1 0.857 0.4 0.714 0.5 0.167 0.25
17 Arizonia Cardinals 14 26 0.538 1 0.75 0.2 0.667 0.5 0 0.5
18 Chicago 18 34 0.529 0.667 0.6 0.8 0.75 0.667 0.333 0.125
19 Tennessee 20 38 0.526 0.75 1 0.25 0.7 0 0.4 0.5
20 Pittsburgh 15 32 0.469 1 0.667 0.4 0.5 0.333 0.5 0
21 New Orleans 13 28 0.464 1 0.667 0.333 0.5 0.2 0 0.6
22 Denver 12 26 0.462 0.667 0.5 0.25 0.5 0.333 0.333 0.667
23 Minnesota 12 26 0.462 0.5 0.833 0 0.667 0.25 0.5 0
24 St Louis 17 37 0.459 0.75 0.5 0.571 0.6 0.2 0 0.444
25 Cincinnati 14 32 0.438 0.75 0.5 0.75 0.5 0 0.2 0.429
26 Cleveland 13 30 0.433 1 1 0 0.2 0.5 0.286 0.4
27 Miami 13 31 0.419 0.75 0.4 0.5 0.5 0 0.4 0.25
28 Tampa Bay 15 39 0.385 0.75 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0
29 Kansas City 13 35 0.371 1 0.333 0.667 0 0.333 0 0.167
30 Jacksonville 11 30 0.367 0.75 0.75 0.667 0.333 0.286 0 0
31 Detroit 11 30 0.367 0.75 0.5 0.6 0 0.2 0 0.2
32 New England 11 33 0.333 1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.25 0 0

 

By this simple metric Savage was a little below average (21st) until Ruckerwas released and that dropped him to the position you see here.  Perhaps the most interesting result of this exercise is that there appears to be some correlation to how well teams are performing.  One could argue, for the mostpart, that the teams at the top of this list are on the rise and the teams on the bottom are in decline or standing still at best.

This is a fan-created post. Dawgs By Nature assumes no responsibility for the content listed.

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