Jamal Lewis

by Terrible Terry Tate on Sep 9, 2009 9:11 AM EDT

Hey all

I've been reading Dawgs By Nature all off-season and have to give much, much kudos to you guys for filling the football-sized void in my life since last season ended. You guys really know your stuff and I always appreciate reading what you have to say, especially when Rufio breaks down formations.

Like everyone else here, I want to see the Browns make the play-offs, but for now I wanted to ask you guys about Jamal Lewis. I know a lot of NFL fans are fickle, but when I read them saying that Jamal is done, I always find it hard to believe.

Now don't get me wrong, no doubt that when we picked up Jamal from the Ravens, he was on the downside of his career in some respects, otherwise they wouldn't have let him go. But a lot of people seem to be judging him on last season and a quiet pre-season this time around and I don't feel anyone can write Lewis off just yet.

Last season was a hard one to call as even through he broke 1000 yards, given the season the Browns had and with a 3.6 YPA, it was a bit like a damp firework.

But the team were collectively bad so for Lewis to put up the numbers he did is surely a sign of what can be done with an improved O-Line and play-calling this season.

So while I'm very excited about James Davis and would love to believe he's a steal and potential franchise RB, there's nothing I'd like to see more than Jamal pound out yards in the snow for first downs against tough defenses like Pittsburgh and Baltimore and I think running the football may be a big thing for this Browns team this season, which for me means Jamal performing.

What do you guys think about how we'll run the ball this season and do you have faith in Jamal to get it done behind this revamped O-Line?

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Comments

nice name and picture.

i always hate steeler comparisons, but i would love to see the running game develop into a situation like they had with parker and bettis; davis is the feature back, doing most of the running, while j-lew comes in to pound out the tough yards and goal-line situations. i think this would work out well for us, because j-lew seems on the down hill slide as a feature back.

by Dawg Nuts on Sep 9, 2009 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

Personally, I think J-Lew is done. He had an absolutely terrible year last year. In fact, 3 of his last 4 years have been pitiful. There is no reason to give a guy with his talent 20 touches a game. I’m very high on Davis, and think Harrison is a good change of pace guy, but overall I think the running game is in serious trouble.

by Ryan Kelsey on Sep 9, 2009 10:44 AM EDT reply actions

I had the good fortune of meeting Terry Tate in 2003.

by Roger Dorn on Sep 9, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

THE ROGER DORN?

Major League has molded me into the person I am today. Could this really be Mr. Dorn and if so, did you become friends with Mr. Sheen?

It may be now..it may be later...later aint gonna be no use! Am I right Al? We got alot of angry guys in their black panthers,muslims, young lords, besides you average anti-socials. We gotta go in, am I right, clean their clocks!

by Yardpenalty.com on Sep 9, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Indeed. Still to this day good friends with Rick Vaughn.

On a realistic note, I used to be an acquintance of the man that drafted your brother, (not Belichik.)

by Roger Dorn on Sep 9, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

caserio?

I reserve the right to complain about Gimenez at 1B and Carroll in the OF, no matter the facts. - FredOx

by DontCallMeJoey on Sep 9, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Yea, I used to live right near JCU, which is how I got to know him.

by Roger Dorn on Sep 9, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions

he was a senior at university school (high school on the east side) when i was a freshman. nick was a ridiculous basketball player in hs.

jason garrett is a university school grad, too. so, basically, we’re all best friends.

I reserve the right to complain about Gimenez at 1B and Carroll in the OF, no matter the facts. - FredOx

by DontCallMeJoey on Sep 9, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha, I know US, I almost went there. Cesario’s good friend told me once about how he dropped 36 on Earl Boykins in high school.

by Roger Dorn on Sep 9, 2009 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, nick could fill it, no question. he was probably better at hoops than football, and he was a very good football player.

what his friend may not have mentioned was that while nick was putting 36 on central catholic, boykins was hanging 48 of his own. ha. that was a ridiculous game to watch. the next year, curtis enis (penn state and bears fame) came to town w/ his prep school (i can’t remember if it was linsley or kiski) and put up about 40.

did you go to ignatius?

I reserve the right to complain about Gimenez at 1B and Carroll in the OF, no matter the facts. - FredOx

by DontCallMeJoey on Sep 9, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

i did

by Roger Dorn on Sep 9, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

also, nick did mention boykins pt total, it was his buddy who was bragging about the 36

by Roger Dorn on Sep 9, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know why, but this comment killed me.

by Bernie19Kosar on Sep 10, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions

So Peter, do you have any brothers still in school that wouldnt mind playing football in the Cleveland area?

" Of course Steroids should be allowed! I wanna see 700 foot home runs and 90 yard field goals! I litterally want to see someone's d**k get shoved in the dirt!"

by BradyQuinnisBeast on Sep 9, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I still wish

the Browns had reached for Glenn Coffee.

he was injured. injured bad.

by troy145 on Sep 9, 2009 1:06 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t.

by SpecialBrownie on Sep 10, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Davis

" Of course Steroids should be allowed! I wanna see 700 foot home runs and 90 yard field goals! I litterally want to see someone's d**k get shoved in the dirt!"

by BradyQuinnisBeast on Sep 10, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Accumulating stats is easy to do when you get plenty of opportunity. The problem with Jamal Lewis is, he’s not producing as much as one would like out of a back getting the kind of touches he is. This is actually not a completely new knock on Jamal. People have been saying his entire career that some of his cumulative stats aren’t as impressive as they seem, simply because he’s always gotten so many carries.

The studious folks at www.FootballOutsiders.com have some interesting stats that attempt to discern just how valuable/efficient a players is being.

One of those stats is DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which attempts to show just how well a guy did given the number of opportunities he’s gotten. This is a rate stat, so it can be calculated regardless of the number opportunities seen. It accounts for the quality of defense played against, the situation (4 yards on 3rd and 3 is much better than 4 yards on 3rd and 5), etc.. Typical scores range from 30% (very good) to 0% (average) to -30% (terrible). Jamal Lewis in 2008 had a -6%, which means he was below a replacement level back, ranking 37th amongst the 49 players who had at least 100 carries.

Another us DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), which is a cumulative stat (so the more carries you get the more you accumulate). It basically attempts to capture how many more or less yards a given player accumulated than a replacement level player would have. In 2008, he accumulated only 29 yards above what a replacement level back would have gotten, and that’s despite getting the 7th most carries in the NFL. As a comparison, DeAngelo Williams got six less carries and racked up a DYAR of 385.

So, yeah he got a 1000 yards, but pretty much any Joe Schmo back could have done that. We need someone who can do more than Jamal with all the carries we have to give.

by danvail on Sep 9, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions

As further reference, in 2007, his best year for us, he had a DYAR of 125 and 1.5%. So, while he wasn’t bad, he wasn’t hugely better than average. His best year, in 2003 (remember those fun games?) he racked up an impressive 2066 yards. His DYAR was even 290 yards, which is pretty high. That year, though, he got 388 carries. His DVOA of only 9.8% indicates that some other high caliber players could have done better than Jamal given those 388 carries.

by danvail on Sep 9, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

One more stat is success rate. This is a measure of how successful a running back is at gaining a situationally appropriate number of yards per play. A play counts as a “hit” if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down (those percentages go up somewhat in the 3rd and 4th quarters when the team is behind). The success rate is simply the number of successful plays over the total number of plays. It is not adjusted for opponent. It’s a stat very similar to one Tressel used to use at Youngstown State.

In 2003, at his best, Jamal ranked 21st of 45 runners with at least 100 carries with a 46% success rate. Not great.
In 2007, at his best for the Browns and behind our vaunted OL, Jamal ranked 31st of 49 with a 45% success rate. Pretty crappy.
In 2008 he hit at only 40% and ranked 45th of 49 eligible players. Pitiful.

by danvail on Sep 9, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Good stuff danvail, I need to check out FO sometime.

" Of course Steroids should be allowed! I wanna see 700 foot home runs and 90 yard field goals! I litterally want to see someone's d**k get shoved in the dirt!"

by BradyQuinnisBeast on Sep 9, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s the success rate that really has me questioning how useful he is to have on the roster. I mean, hypothetically it could make sense to give Davis most of the 1st and 2nd down carries, Harrison the third down back duty and change of pace stuff, Lewis the short yardage situations. Still, it doesn’t seem like Lewis is all that effective in short yardage situations. He just isn’t good.

by Ryan Kelsey on Sep 10, 2009 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Also, thanks for posting this. I did it in another thread recently (the DVOA and DYAR numbers for Lewis) and just made a quick comment on this thread. But you said it and explained the stats more thoroughly than I have the patience to do right now.

by Ryan Kelsey on Sep 10, 2009 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions

It was almost as much for me as anyone else. I hadn’t even bothered to look at his 2008 numbers until I posted this stuff. Seeing what he had to offer on the field is evidence enough for me, but being able to have some stats to trump the 1000+ yard back myth is very helpful. Perhaps it wasn’t worth delving into too deeply until we had some hope of actually seeing some change, but with Mangini it does seem like he’ll mix it up if Lewis can’t get it done.

by danvail on Sep 10, 2009 7:04 AM EDT up reply actions

This is a great post, but I can’t get over “he got a 1000 yards.”

Reminds me of one of my favorite movies, Night of a 1000 Cats.

by Chemo on Sep 10, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha, yeah that’s pretty bad. My Italian has been much better since I grew this enormous mustache, though.

by danvail on Sep 10, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks so much for the pointer to FootballOutsiders danvail. There is some great stuff there and it is well-worth a visit. I think Lewis’ run style and the way he seems to pick up so many yards on his own leads people to believe that he is better than he is. The statistics say different but I do think he is good to retain as a role-playing, short-yardage guy.

Brownsyup

by Brownsyup on Sep 17, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions

It’s a matter of getting JL into the right situations at this point. He’s still a load to bring down in the open field. And he can carry defenders once he’s underway, given a sizable hole to go through. I feel that his failure is his inability to squeak out the standard 4 yard gain through the hole that collapses. Plus, he may have lost a half step in the 40, so that 70 yard burst becomes a 25 yard burst when he does shake loose.

by elsandito on Sep 9, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

You don’t happen to be someone I know, do you? Phenomenal username regardless.

“YOU FINISH THE JOE, YOU MAKE SOME MO’!! WHOOO!!!”

by rufio on Sep 9, 2009 5:03 PM EDT reply actions

O Line

If we had an effective Offensive line, Jamal could get good numbers. But, with a good O-line, we could get good numbers from a younger, cheaper RB.
The QB has to take some of the blame for there not being hole for a RB. If the Defense can stuff the line because they know the QB can’t hurt them deep, the running game will be shut down. The Vikings have a great run stopping D and Quinn does not scare them for throwing deep.

by dragon43078 on Sep 9, 2009 11:24 PM EDT reply actions

Any Schmo can get 1,000?

Where was said schmo for nearly two decades? Anyone else remember our 1,000 rusher drought?

by L Train on Sep 11, 2009 12:53 AM EDT reply actions

If you feed one RB 90% of your carries throughout a season and have any semblance of an offense, he’ll end up with 1000 yards. Don’t forget it was Reuben GD Droughns who broke that streak. The guys is barely in the league a few years later.

by danvail on Sep 11, 2009 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions

*guy

I really need to read these prior to hitting ‘post’…

by danvail on Sep 11, 2009 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but we still failed to do it for a long, long time.

Jamal isn’t a great option anymore, and we will clearly need to get more young talent at RB (even if Davis is as good as he showed during the preseason), but we are still in a better position with Jamal than we were with William Green, Lee Suggs, etc. etc.

by rufio on Sep 11, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

This is true. But then, those guys were truly awful. They ranked towards the bottom of the league by most every RB metric. Just because we had terrible backs before doesn’t make an average RB like Lewis better than average, it just makes him seem better by comparison.

My point is that accumulating 1000 yards doesn’t make you a great or even necessarily a good RB. It’s as useless measure as saying someone hit 25 home runs. By itself it seems like a positive, but if he took 650 PA and got on base at a .206 clip while accumulating those homers… well, he sucks.

31-W.Green CLE -96 43 -74 43 -18.0% 41 -15.9% 243 889 716 6 3 42% 38
44-L.Suggs CLE 5 35 -72 43 -8.0% 35 -17.3% 199 755 715 2 6 45% 25

by danvail on Sep 11, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn’t mean to include those stat lines for the wonder twins, but they are pretty terrible.

Also, I did a search to see if anyone has ever done the 25 HR / .200 OBP thing, and no one ever has. Tony Armas did something pretty amazing, though. In 1983, he hit 36 HRs with a .254 OBP. His OPS+ was 85.

by danvail on Sep 11, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions

he ought to be rewarded for something like that, no?

I reserve the right to complain about Gimenez at 1B and Carroll in the OF, no matter the facts. - FredOx

by DontCallMeJoey on Sep 11, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously, he needs to be a keynote speaker at the Strange Happenings is Baseball Convention, which I now desperately want to exist.

by danvail on Sep 12, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know very much about baseball.

Still, I mostly agree with you. Getting 1000 yards doesn’t mean you are a good RB, but it also means you are not a terrible RB. That means it is very much possible to take a step back from Jamal, and it doesn’t just take “any schmo” to get 1000.

Lewis doesn’t seem better by comparison, he is more productive than those backs were. Should we be looking to do better? No doubt. I’ve been calling for Harrison to get more carries just as long as everyone here (except probably Chris) and I hope both he and Davis get a good chunk this year.

We should at least give Jamal the chance to show us if he has anything left in the regular season before we declare him “done”. People said he was done after 06, and I thought he had a pretty solid 07.

Completely shelving Jamal and naming an injured Harrison/rookie Davis as our two-headed starter seems pretty foolish at this point. They can take on more of the load over the course of the year, if/when they earn it and Jamal shows us what he has left in the tank. I don’t believe the preseason told us the whole story.

by rufio on Sep 12, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling for shutting down Lewis. I think he should be splitting carries with both other backs. At least that way everyone is fresh and we can figure out who deserves more or less carries. My point is that the argument “he got 1000 yards so he’s good” is a stupid argument. It took Jamal 279 carries to reach 1002 yards last year. DeAngelo Williams got 1515 with six less carries. Derrick Ward got 1025 in 182 carries. We should not be so eager to give Jamal Lewis 80.6% of our carries again.

by danvail on Sep 12, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Your comment was in response to L Train, who made the point that not “any schmo” can get 1000—which you did originally say.

Neither s/he, nor I, not the original poster said anything about getting 1000 yards making anyone a beast, a pro bowler, or even “good”. You are making your point and have made your point that 1000 ≠ good RB (necessarily). No one was arguing against you: you could have 1000 carries for 1000 yards on a 0-16 team and the only thing you would have proven as a back is that you are durable and probably not that good.

No one was making comparisons to Williams or Ward, and I think all of us would take those guys over Jamal. I also think everyone would love to see Harrison and Davis get some carries.

I thought you had implied that Jamal would be easily replaceable based on the FO stats you listed, and that you wanted to give his carries to other backs, which is why I discussed completely shutting him down above.

We were simply saying that some backs cannot get 1000 yards, even given the opportunity. This is something that you originally disagreed with. This is the only point where we have ever really disagreed.

If and when we decide to give the feature back role to someone besides Jamal, we need to make sure it isn’t one of those “truly awful” backs like Green or Suggs who couldn’t get 1000 yards if they were playing Glenville.

by rufio on Sep 13, 2009 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Not to beat a dead horse, but what I said was any Schmo COULD have done that (get 1000 yards given the number of carries he received). While it was admittedly a bit on the hyperbole side, it’s not that bold of a statement. You even seem to agree.

I will say this, though: the Jamal Lewis of 2008 was a very pedestrian back. He’s not much of an asset at this point, and actually IS easily replaceable.

by danvail on Sep 15, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I think it was hyperbole, but agree with the point behind the hyperbole (1000 doesn’t mean a whole lot).

I think Jamal will be fairly easy to replace (at least from a talent standpoint), but not in the middle of the season. In FA or the draft, sure.

by rufio on Sep 16, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

And in response to the FO stats above: I don’t think I can really buy in to those.

Even if you can accurately take in to account the opposing defense (which I doubt is entirely possible) I don’t think you can take in to account the % of the defense’s resources/effort involved in attempting to stop the run.

Everyone knew those Ravens teams were going to run the ball. Everyone was trying to make them throw it because they sucked at passing. Still, Jamal managed to do what he did. A RB playing next to Peyton Manning would have had a much easier time getting 2000 yards, or a certain YPC or a certain DYAR simply because of the threat of someone like Peyton throwing the ball—even if they were playing the same defenses.

And even if that were taken in to account, what about the offensive lines that those RBs were running behind? Against a hypothetical “average” defense, would a great back behind a terrible line get as many YPC as a terrible back behind a great line? As high a DYAR? DVOA?

Isn’t the rating system for O Linemen based on runs when they are at the point of attack? I don’t see how the stats separate the linemen’s contribution to the success of the running play from the back’s.

FO are better than traditional stats, for sure. But they are still questionable.

by rufio on Sep 13, 2009 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions

All I said was that given the number of carries he’s gotten, even at his best in 2003, some other backs (the very best) probably could have done more. At his best, Jamal was probably the 3rd best back in the league (behind Tomlinson and Holmes).

Of course, FO stats are not perfect, and cannot fully distinguish team contributions. They are simply the best stats available.

by danvail on Sep 15, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree, but two decades and we couldn’t find ANYONE to do such any easy task……

by L Train on Sep 11, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions

Well, there were a few mitigating factors in that 19 year drought.

Also, if you use the “reply” button on someone else’s post, your response shows directly underneath the post. It makes conversations a lot easier to follow.

by danvail on Sep 11, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Some nice analysis in this post and good points in the thread. I think running back may be our Achilles’s heal this year. I still think Lewis has some good runs left in him and he still moves the pile but he seems to have lost something. Davis shows promise but I remember thinking the same thing about Harrison in pre-season last year and he never really panned out.
Regardless, a running back’s success is at least half dependent on his O-line and that will be the key this year if Lewis stays healthy. We know we won’t have a legitimate star at running back but maybe we’ll have “good enough”.

Brownsyup

by Brownsyup on Sep 11, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions

#31

Dont write Jamal off so quick.. he had a pretty decent start sunday, and i think he wil get better as we roll into Denver.. so dont be suprised if he rips off a few good runs and hopefully a TD next week… Go Jamal…GO BROWNS

by Jamals6082 on Sep 16, 2009 5:22 PM EDT reply actions