So I did a little research yesterday about what the teams in front of us will be looking for by visiting the other SBN sites. I think overall fans tend to have a pretty good grasp of what direction their team should move in.
My conclusion is that we have a much better chance of getting Berry than we initially thought. Quick summary below:
1. St. Louis - Rams will select either Suh or a QB if they decide they need a franchise QB leading up to the draft. Chance of taking Berry - 0%
2. Detroit - The Lions took a safety in the second round last year and their fans feel the biggest needs are either LT or DT. If Suh falls to them, he is automatically the pick. G. McCoy is also a good bet to go here. Okung could be a sleeper. Chance of taking Berry - 15%
3. Tampa - This is the spot that I think is the biggest threat to take Berry in front of the Browns. The Tampa fans would prefer a DT, but it's possible that Suh and McCoy go 1 and 2. There is actually a post over at the Bucs website on why the draft has good safety depth and drafting a safety at number 3 overall is too high. That said, if Suh and McCoy go 1,2 Berry seems like the Bucs' fans choice for a fallback at 3. A trade down is also possible. Chance of taking Berry - 65% (contingent on Lions pick)
4. Washington - Washington has made 2 first round picks on safeties in the past decade (Landry and Taylor), and the team also needs a lot of help on offense. Offense will almost certainly be the choice, and they will either decide to move on from Jason Campbell and select one of the QBs or address the offensive line which they need a lot of help on. I think it's about 50/50 between the top QB and the top LT at this pick. Some grumblings over at the Skins site feel that Shanahan thinks he can win with Campbell. Selecting a LT at this spot would probably help the Browns get Berry. Chance of taking Berry - 0%
5. Kansas City - Another risk spot for Berry being selected, but the majority of Chiefs fans seem to prefer either a DT, in the unlikely event that one of the top 2 DT prospects falls. Another name that a lot of Chiefs fans want is Rolando McClain. Pioli is an interesting case where he seems to value positional value a bit more than top prospect available as evidenced by his time in NE and his selection of Tyson Jackson last year over the highly-rated Aaron Curry. If this holds true, he would be unlikely to draft a safety at 5 overall, and may in fact rate someone like Joe Haden a bit higher assuming he grades out as the top corner. Chance of taking Berry - this is the biggest question mark for me so I will put it at 50%
6. Seattle - Seattle fans seem to think that Jimmy Clausen is a great bet since Pete Carroll heavily recruited him at USC, but ultimately lost out to the Irish. The question is whether or not Clausen is still available at this pick. Quarterback is an obvious need for the Seahawks, but the team overall needs help in a lot of areas so this is another team that could do anything and not surprise me. Ultimately, I think Carroll will want to go with his franchise QB at this pick whether it is Bradford or Clausen. Chance of taking Berry - 33%
The Browns best hope for landing Berry is that the 2 DTs do not go 1 and 2 to the Rams and Lions. If that is the case, Tampa will think long and hard about taking Suh or McCoy at that spot. Once this scenario plays out, our last big threat would be the Chiefs at 5, at which point we should be rooting for them to select a guy like McClain or Haden. I really think Seattle will go with a QB at 6.
Now, I know some of you are not as high on Berry, but at the moment he would be my favorite choice should he fall to us. The Browns will need a pretty specific sequence of events to happen for Berry to be sitting there at number 7, but a lot can happen between now and April, a time when you see QBs and LTs rise just because of the positions they play.
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