By the Numbers 2.0: '09 Browns vs. '10 Browns

Well, a few weeks ago, Kimble did a comparison article of the '09 browns compared to the '10 browns.  I figured we could make it a weekly thing.  This one will be more stats oriented (especially Football Outsiders stats).  the one thing I thought would be interesting would be to compare the browns of week 10 last year to browns in week 10 this year.

2009 Browns through week 9

Points Per Game: 9.75 (t-31st)

Yards: 221.1 (31st)  Passing: 121.5 (30th)  Rushing: 99.6 (22nd)

Turnover Margin: -11 (32nd)

Points Against: 26.1 (28th)

Yards Given up: 409.5 (32nd)  Passing: 239 (24th)  Rushing: 170.5 (31st)

Point Differential: -16.35 (31st)

We were REALLY bad for the first half of last season...possibly the worst team in football.  I think this is nice to see, just to show how far we have come.

When comparing these numbers, you do have to keep in mind (the totals) that this is only through 9 weeks.  However, its pretty easy to figure out the rate we are going for a whole season because we have played 8 games so you just double it.

2009 Browns Offense

Points Per Game: 15.3 (29th)

First Downs Per Game: 14.8 (30th)

Total Yards: 260.2 (32nd)    Passing Yards: 129.8 (32nd)    Rushing Yards: 130.4 (8th)

Yards Per Play: 4.3(32nd)

Passing Breakdown***

Comp/Att         Comp %          Total Yds     Yds/Pass        TD/INT     20+        40+   Sacks          QB Rtg
219/443            49.4%(32)         2076             5.1(32)          11/18     25(32)    4(27)      30(15)        55.8(32)

***(To make sure it all fit on the same line, the ranking doesn't include the letters...i.e. 15th is just 15) 

Rushing Breakdown

Attempts          Total Yds         Yds/Carry               TD             20+          40+
498                     2087               4.2(15th)          10(20th)      8(t-21st)          1

2010 Browns Offense

Points Per Game: 19 (25th)

First Downs Per Game: 17 (25th)

Yards Total: 306 (25th)    Passing Yards: 188.75 (25th)   Rushing Yards: 117.3 (13th)

Passing Breakdown***

Comp/Att         Comp %                  Total Yds        Yds/Pass         TD/INT         20+           40+        Sacks             QB Rtg

145/231              62.8(12)*               1510                6.8(20)*              6/8             21(20)     4(13)         14(20)          77.1(23)*

*This is something interesting to point out.  If you take away Jake Delhomme's stats this year, our Comp % goes up to 65.5 (5th), our Yards/Pass goes up to 7.3(t-10th), our TD/INT ratio would be positive, and our QB Rating would be 87.2(15th)

Rushing Breakdown

Attempts          Total Yds         Yds/Carry        TD      20+    40+

    226                           938                    4.2(14th)          9(3rd)     6         2

2009 Browns Defense

Points Per Game: 23.4(21st)

First Downs Per Game: 21(32nd)

Yards Per Game: 389.3(31st)   Passing Yards: 244.7 (29th)   Rushing Yards: 144.6 (28th)

Yards Per Play: 5.8(30th)

Passing Breakdown***

Comp/Att       Comp %          Total Yds    Yds/Pass      TD/INT      20+          40+        Sacks      QB Rtg
313/526           59.5%(15)        3915        7.9(28)          22/10       62(32)     13(28)     40(8)         90.6(24)

Rushing Breakdown

Attempts          Total Yds           Yds/Carry          TD               20+          40+
506                     2314                 4.6(29th)         15(19th)       11(21st)       3

2010 Defense

Points Per Game: 19.5(11th)

First Downs Per Game: 19(15th

Yards Per Game: 346.4(21st)   Passing Yards: 240.5(25th)    Rushing Yards: 105.9(15th)

Yards Per Play: 5.5(19th)

Passing Breakdown***

Comp/Att         Comp %        Total Yds       Yds/Pass        TD/INT    20+       40+      Sacks    QB Rtg

169/273                 61.9(20)              1924                      7.4(22)          15/9        27(t27)    4(t22)       14(22)      88.9(24)

Rushing Breakdown

Attempts        Total Yds         Yds/Carry            TD         20+         40+

218                           847                      3.9(11th)            1(1st)         7(t20th)      1

2009 Efficiency Stats

Turnover Differential: -12(29th)

Point Differential: -130(27th)

Offense (FO):  24th;   Passing: 29th;   Rushing: 12th

Defense (FO): 30th;   Passing: 28th,   Rushing: 30th

Overall DVOA (efficiency): 26th;   Special Teams: 1st;   FO Estimated Wins: 5.3;   FO Net DSR**: -.106(30th)

**(DSR or Drive Success Rate is a measurement of the % of drives that result in a 1st down or TD)

2010 Efficiency Stats

Turnover Differential: +2(14th)

Point Differential: -4(18th)

Offense (FO): 16th;   Passing: 17th;   Rushing: 16th

Defense (FO): 15th;   Passing: 22nd;   Rushing: 7th

Overall DVOA: 14th;   Special Teams: 6th; FO Estimated Wins: 4.8;  FO Net DSR**: -.031(23rd)

Observations

• Wow.  This team is a lot better than last year.  The numbers support a lot of what I have seen.  We have taken care of the ball better, been more competitive overall, let up less big plays, and had more big plays and better efficiency on offense
• These stats remind me of something Mangini said: "First you learn how to be competitive, next you learn how to win, and lastly you learn how to win consistently".  In 2009, the team was just learning how to be competitive near the end of the season.  You could see it carry over and they were competitive in each game.  Now we are learning how to win.  We just need to learn how to win consistently.
• Random Thoughts while Surfing Football Outsiders:  Their Estimated wins for us is almost as many as ours for all of last year.  We are 3-5, but based on FO's rankings (and record) we have the hardest SoS so far and FO ranks our SoS going forward, only the 23rd hardest based on DVOA (27th based on Record).  
• Random Thoughts Continued: Football Outsiders gives us a 9.5% chance of making the playoffs.  There is Hope!  They also predict us to finish with most likely, an 8.8 record, with our projected finish being with 7.7 wins.