FanPost

Draft Position Analysis - Browns Pick 8th (REVISED)

SEE BELOW FOR REVISION BASED UPON REALITY...

I just did a bit of research looking at the possibilities for the Browns draft position.  Things are starting to become more clear.  The following assumes that the Browns lose to the Steelers next week.

Here is the order as it can be analyzed at this point...(1st tie breaker is strength of schedule)

1.  Panthers - No guessing necessary here.  They are the undisputed 1st pick.
2.  Broncos - With 4 wins and the Chargers next, can Tebow cause them to fall down the draft?  I think not.
3.  Bengals - 4 wins and the Ravens... see Broncos.  Their schedule strength definitely makes them pick after Denver.
4.  Bills - 4 wins and the Jets.  I say they lose next week.  Their schedule strength is close to Cincy so 3 and 4 are close.
5.  49ers/Cards - Play each other so one will have 6 wins.  Weakest schedule of 5 win teams.
6.  Vikings/Lions - Also play each other so one will have 6 wins and drop while the other stays here.
7.  Cowboys - Will likely lose to Philly and get ahead of the Browns based on weaker schedule.
8.  Browns - I think the Browns are most likely to pick here.  The last of the 5-win teams.
9.  Texans - Just predicting they beat Jacksonville.  No reason for it but Jacksonville has not won when it counted.  If Texas loses they pick ahead of the Browns and the Browns drop to 9.

There is another weird scenario in which the Vikings beat the Eagles in the delayed game Tuesday and then lose to Detroit the following week.  This would put both the Vikings and the Lions behind the Browns in the draft.  I think this unlikely so I'm sticking with the Browns picking 8th as the most likely spot. 

*******************  4 Jan

I think it is really interesting how this ended up.  The Browns will pick 6th instead of my prediction of 8th.  First, the "weird" scenario occurred in which the Vikings beat the Eagles in the delayed game and then Detroit beat the Vikings giving both of those teams 6 wins.  Second, the Cowboys beat the Eagles in a game that the Eagles treated as meaningless as they sat Vick with a relatively minor injury.  The Texans won as I predicted.  So there was only 1 other 5-win team besides the Browns and that is the Cardinals who had an easier schedule and thus will pick before the Browns.  All in all it was about the best outcome for the draft we could have hoped for in a sometimes promising season thanks to the Vikings, Lions and Cowboys.

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