Draft Position Analysis - Browns Pick 8th (REVISED)
by Brownsyup on Dec 27, 2010 2:50 PM EST
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PrintSEE BELOW FOR REVISION BASED UPON REALITY...
I just did a bit of research looking at the possibilities for the Browns draft position. Things are starting to become more clear. The following assumes that the Browns lose to the Steelers next week.
Here is the order as it can be analyzed at this point...(1st tie breaker is strength of schedule)
1. Panthers - No guessing necessary here. They are the undisputed 1st pick.
2. Broncos - With 4 wins and the Chargers next, can Tebow cause them to fall down the draft? I think not.
3. Bengals - 4 wins and the Ravens... see Broncos. Their schedule strength definitely makes them pick after Denver.
4. Bills - 4 wins and the Jets. I say they lose next week. Their schedule strength is close to Cincy so 3 and 4 are close.
5. 49ers/Cards - Play each other so one will have 6 wins. Weakest schedule of 5 win teams.
6. Vikings/Lions - Also play each other so one will have 6 wins and drop while the other stays here.
7. Cowboys - Will likely lose to Philly and get ahead of the Browns based on weaker schedule.
8. Browns - I think the Browns are most likely to pick here. The last of the 5-win teams.
9. Texans - Just predicting they beat Jacksonville. No reason for it but Jacksonville has not won when it counted. If Texas loses they pick ahead of the Browns and the Browns drop to 9.
There is another weird scenario in which the Vikings beat the Eagles in the delayed game Tuesday and then lose to Detroit the following week. This would put both the Vikings and the Lions behind the Browns in the draft. I think this unlikely so I'm sticking with the Browns picking 8th as the most likely spot.
******************* 4 Jan
I think it is really interesting how this ended up. The Browns will pick 6th instead of my prediction of 8th. First, the "weird" scenario occurred in which the Vikings beat the Eagles in the delayed game and then Detroit beat the Vikings giving both of those teams 6 wins. Second, the Cowboys beat the Eagles in a game that the Eagles treated as meaningless as they sat Vick with a relatively minor injury. The Texans won as I predicted. So there was only 1 other 5-win team besides the Browns and that is the Cardinals who had an easier schedule and thus will pick before the Browns. All in all it was about the best outcome for the draft we could have hoped for in a sometimes promising season thanks to the Vikings, Lions and Cowboys.
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Wow. I don’t think anyone guessed that Denver, Cincy, Dallas, and Frisco would be drafting so high.
It’s not a lie if you believe it.
This actually has us picking 10th, 5th has two teams and so does 6th, so it’s really 5-8th.
his pick sexes put us over the top
by North Coast Flea on Dec 27, 2010 6:34 PM EST reply actions
10th it what ESPN’s North Division blogger has us at as well.
by Justin Kowalczyk on Dec 27, 2010 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
No… those teams play each other and each have 5 wins so one will win and end up with 6 wins, thus falling below us in the draft.
Brownsyup
Ok that makes sense, unless we beat the Steelers. Hey, you never know, it could happen.
his pick sexes put us over the top
by North Coast Flea on Dec 28, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
I’m already trash talking with all my friends that are Steelers fans. Win or Lose, doesn’t matter, I will continue my trash talking.
"They kept throwing it at me. I don’t know why. They just kept trying, and I just kept knocking it down." -- Joe Haden
AJ Green is a very real possibility if Cincinnatti passes up on him.
Mike Marra is the worst Division 1 Starter in college basketball
by TheRealSlimShady on Dec 27, 2010 11:37 PM EST reply actions
I’d think the Broncos, Bills and Cowboys would all have interest in Green and would likely not all pass on him. I’d sure like to see Green in orange but I think it unlikely unless the Browns move up in the draft.
Brownsyup
without looking at Miles Austin’s contract status, the Cowboys are too awful on D and more than content at WR with Bryant/Austin to draft Green that high.
Denver? Maybe, but they have Lloyd and invested a 2010 1st rounder in Demaryius Thomas and also have defensive needs, mainly in the secondary.
Buffalo possibly, but I’m guessing they’re a best-player-available team. Maybe that’s Green, maybe not.
I agree that Cincy is a likely landing point for him, with the possibility of both 85 and TO not returning in 2011.
You are reading my signature.
In theory I could too, but is Green really that much of an explosive, must-have WR talent? If he was I’d guess he doesn’t slip past 3.
And we’re not talking about Dallas sitting in the teens or early twenties and making the Felix Jones/Dez Bryant pick. If they’re sitting in the top 6 picks of the draft, they should be drafting best-player-available at any position other than WR.
You are reading my signature.
I could just because he is jerry jones. However even he has the sense not to spend that pick on a WR when you have an awesome player in Mile Austin and another awesome player in Bryant.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Cincy performed well without Ocho and TO last week. I think they’ll want to address their horrible pass rush before they go WR.
There is no way Jerry Jones will take Green. They have two first round picks tied up in Roy and Dez, and Miles is dominant.
I met a fairy today that granted me one wish. "I want to live forever," I said. "Sorry" said the fairy, "I'm not allowed to grant wishes like that!"
"Fine" I said, "I want to die after the Browns win the Super Bowl !"
"You crafty bastard," said the fairy.
by The Licensed Pessimist on Dec 29, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
Never overestimate Jerry Jones.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Jerry Jones is dynamic, he’s not retarded.
I met a fairy today that granted me one wish. "I want to live forever," I said. "Sorry" said the fairy, "I'm not allowed to grant wishes like that!"
"Fine" I said, "I want to die after the Browns win the Super Bowl !"
"You crafty bastard," said the fairy.
by The Licensed Pessimist on Dec 30, 2010 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
I think this is pretty much my point.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
But by him not being retarded, he’s not going to go a dynamic route unless it will be the best for his team.
There is simply absolutely no chance Jone will go for Green. Absolutely none.
I met a fairy today that granted me one wish. "I want to live forever," I said. "Sorry" said the fairy, "I'm not allowed to grant wishes like that!"
"Fine" I said, "I want to die after the Browns win the Super Bowl !"
"You crafty bastard," said the fairy.
by The Licensed Pessimist on Jan 1, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yup Al Davis has been much more successful (especially if you ignore the last ten years).
2010 Official DBN League Fantasy Football Champion.
"There are a lot of Steelers fans around the city so I hope people go to work and kick those Steelers fans.’’ - Josh Cribbs.
by TheDriveStillHurts on Dec 30, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
I mean the current Al Davis. Of course the Al Davis from decades ago knew football but he doesn’t seem to be around any more.
by Buckeye Brad on Dec 30, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
really? what about the teams Jerry Jones put together in the 90s? they have the same amount of SB wins as GM/Owner/President, but Al Davis has done it for 2 decades longer.
He did know football, but so did Jerry Jones.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Jimmy Johnson built those teams. Read about Al and hiw early years and the development of the AFL. There is no comparison.
2010 Official DBN League Fantasy Football Champion.
"There are a lot of Steelers fans around the city so I hope people go to work and kick those Steelers fans.’’ - Josh Cribbs.
by TheDriveStillHurts on Dec 31, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
I do know what Al Did. I just thought Jerry had much more involvement than he did. Comment redacted then.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
I think you mean “retracted.” Or maybe you should just “refudiate” it. ;)
2010 Official DBN League Fantasy Football Champion.
"There are a lot of Steelers fans around the city so I hope people go to work and kick those Steelers fans.’’ - Josh Cribbs.
by TheDriveStillHurts on Dec 31, 2010 4:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Instead of being obsessed with speed, he’s obsessed with star power and pizazz.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Romo and Austin being the exception though. UNTIL they became big stars.
ROHC THE SOHC.
by SpecialBrownie on Dec 31, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
except that I don’t see them getting 120 yard performances out of Jerome Simpson each week. To put it into perspective, that one game is 80% of his career receiving yards.
Without TO or Ocho, you are left with Shipley as your #1 and Andre Caldwell as your #2. that is not at all good.
I do think they probably go pass rush, but WR would be my next choice.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Bills have needs that are much bigger than WR. Stevie Johnson was very effective when God wanted him to be, and Lee Evans isn’t bad.
Cowboys have Dez, who will be very good, and also Miles Austin and Roy Williams.
Broncos need Defense to fix the D or the running game, and they drafted Demaryious Thomas last year anyway.
Mike Marra is the worst Division 1 Starter in college basketball
by TheRealSlimShady on Dec 28, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
I’d sure like to see Green in orange
I’ll second that.
Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing. -- Vince Lombardi
by burntorangeandbrown on Dec 29, 2010 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
Let’s make this comment green.
Never underestimate the powers of Josh Cribbs.
by RelapsingDawgCatcher on Dec 29, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Or red in the face?
his pick sexes put us over the top
by North Coast Flea on Dec 29, 2010 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
Broncos: No. They already have Lloyd, a 1st round WR from last year, and Eddie Royal who is a solid slot guy…oh and Jabar Gaffney isn’t too bad either. It would be utterly moronic for a team that loaded at WR to take another WR (especially since their D is so awful)
Cowboys: Same story. Cowboys drafted a 1st round WR and he is much more productive already than the broncos one. Miles Austin is pretty darn good too. The Cowboys also have a very good #3 WR in Roy Williams (he kinda sucks, but not as a 3rd WR) and an elite TE. Oh, and their D also is awful.
Bills: this is the only scenario that makes sense that you mentioned (the other 2 teams are not run by al davis). They do have Steve Johnson who is good, and they have a few other decent WRs. They could definitely use an upgrade at the other WR spot, but it is not a dire need (they can survive with Lee Evans starting and david nelson in the slot). They, like the other 2 teams do desperately need Defense though and also need O-Line so I don’t see them doing that.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
The Broncos drafted Tebow in the 1st round. I wouldn’t look past them to do anything.
Your friendly neighborhood Mangini apologist.
by North Coast Flea on Dec 31, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
McDaniels drafted tebow. Also, there is a difference between getting a project QB when your QB is good, but may never be great. Orton does not have a ton of upside right now and I think what we have seen the last couple years is about his ceiling. with
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Heckert
All I have to say is I am happy Heckert is helping draft again – last night’s game they showed 3 players that he drafted, Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Lesean McCoy and he has obviously had other great drafts (2002), but happy he is on our side.
Also Kevin Kolb.
2010 Official DBN League Fantasy Football Champion.
"There are a lot of Steelers fans around the city so I hope people go to work and kick those Steelers fans.’’ - Josh Cribbs.
by TheDriveStillHurts on Dec 30, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
He’s an amazing WR. But….
Did you see his hot dog move on his TD catch in the bowl game last night (ran parallel to the goal line taunting the defensive back chasing after him…). I have to say that kind of thing gives me a bad taste.
Also – couple of DUI charges while at OSU…
Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing. -- Vince Lombardi
by burntorangeandbrown on Dec 30, 2010 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
Give me Green (fingers crossed he is still on the board) or Jones.
Julio Jones might not be the best of the three, but I like what I’ve read about him. Aside from his great athleticism he’s apparently a hard working kid with character.
Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing. -- Vince Lombardi
by burntorangeandbrown on Dec 30, 2010 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
I saw it, didn’t mind. Desean Jackson does the same stuff and I would take him.
I like Blackmon over Jones, I haven’t decided between Green and Blackmon yet.
I hate Desean Jackson.
Wait—aren’t you the one who is anti-WR?
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
If Green is still available when we make our 1st round pick I think I’ll shoot my TV set.
Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing. -- Vince Lombardi
by burntorangeandbrown on Dec 31, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
when we make our 1st round pick
and we pass on him when we make our 1st round pick
Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing. -- Vince Lombardi
by burntorangeandbrown on Dec 31, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I worry about the DUI charges more than the showboating. I mean DUIs are serious, but I at least understand one…you are out drinking with your friends and think you are fine to drive but really aren’t. However 2 DUIs shows stupidity.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
by bross09 on Dec 31, 2010 5:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I tend to be forgiving / not highly judgmental when it comes to this kind of thing in general.
But its the unknown factor – just puts a question mark in my mind. I knew about his DUIs – ok, college kids do some dumb things… then I see him make the hot dog move – bad taste in mouth but still, on its own no really big deal.
But it just gives me pause – puts me over the fence to the Julio Jones camp, especially knowing he seems to be the antithesis of Blackmon in the ‘bad behavior’ department.
Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing. -- Vince Lombardi
by burntorangeandbrown on Dec 31, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Yep. I don’t like passing moral judgement – just makes you wonder how stable a character you’re going to have when he goes from BMOC to NFL rookie, and the real world / really hard work / week in week out confronts him down the road.
Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing. -- Vince Lombardi
by burntorangeandbrown on Dec 31, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
exactly. I am totally with you on this. I do agree with BOAB that I don’t generally like to pass moral judgement, but there is definitely something troubling about someone’s common sense if they get multiple DUIs…and are under 21. The guy doesn’t even turn 21 for another couple weeks.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
What do you all think about Front 7 guys like Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, Marcell Dareus, and Nick Fairley?
Mike Marra is the worst Division 1 Starter in college basketball
by TheRealSlimShady on Jan 1, 2011 9:23 PM EST reply actions
Is Smith eligible? Looks like a solid athlete, a little raw, looks a bit more like a 4-3 DE to me. They say sacks are one of the more transferable stats to the pros, and he’s setting records at Mizzou (I think?). Seems like a pretty mature and intelligent guy.
Quinn is obviously talented, I’d like to find out more about his character and also get a look at him dropping in coverage, even in shorts. He’s still pretty raw because he can just run around people in college. Could be seen as a minus or a plus. I think he’s a guy that would make a good 3-4 OLB, I’d like to know.
Dareus is very good but I think he’s a better one-gap player. I would love a guys like this on our DL to help make us a more hybrid scheme.
Fairley is killing it in the SEC, would like to see another year of consistent production out of him and I don’t know if he’s a good fit in our 3-4.
All talented guys, I don’t know if I’d take any one of them with our first rounder. Probably depends who is there.
My board is:
Luck
Peterson
Green
Dareus
Amukamara
I kind of don’t know what to do with guys like Fairley, Bowers, Jenkins who have had extremely good years but all weren’t as good until this year.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Smith is a RS Soph.
Mike Marra is the worst Division 1 Starter in college basketball
by TheRealSlimShady on Jan 2, 2011 1:17 AM EST up reply actions
That’s a good board, and I like Amukamara, but Fairley, Quinn, and Dareus just seem a level above him and Bowers would be a horrible fit for the Browns.
Mike Marra is the worst Division 1 Starter in college basketball
by TheRealSlimShady on Jan 2, 2011 1:19 AM EST up reply actions
I hate to say “This” or “I agree” but I do agree with a lot of this. Quinn would be great but I would want to see how he can drop back and his character issues first.
Fairley is really good, but I wouldn’t take him top 10 with only 1 year of that production.
I don’t know exactly about Dareus however.
That looks pretty much my board except I might put Quinn in that top 5 (near the bottom)
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
to me WR is still a luxury in the top 10 … i feel like we need a ton of young help on the DL / pass rush, and then we can go try to get an impact FA WR like santonio holmes to make an immediate difference in the passing game.
by DontCallMeJoey on Jan 3, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
I’d take AJ Green and no one else in the top-10. I like Jones a lot and I would put him somewhere in the teens probably.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
It’s hard to guage what Heckert will do since he rarely drafted this high with the Eagles, but a quick scan of their draft history would suggest he is a believer in positional value, taking linemen on both sides, QB and CB high. The other positions you take BPA in late round 1 and rounds 2-3. If this holds true, I bet we don’t take a WR at 6.
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