Draft thread: Pre-Combine Predictions
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 22, 2010 2:25 PM EST
157 comments
We have been without a draft thread over here in the FanPosts lately, so I decided to put one up for maybe my favorite week of the off-season. This is a place to discuss anything and everything related to the Browns and the NFL Draft.
If you come across a good link about the Draft, as usual post it as a FanShot on the lower section on the front page.
This is the week of the NFL Combine, and I expect the draft chatter to really start picking up this week. So not only is this a draft discussion thread, but I thought we could also make it into Combine prediction thread.
Here are some examples:
- How is the player who is going to "explode" at the combine? I am talking about a guy who goes from the late first or mid-20's up into the top 10. My guess is Jason Pierre-Paul.
- How is the small school guy who is going to make a name for themselves? Think of Vincent Jackson a couple of seasons ago.
- Who is going to lose the most at the combine?
- What test do you think is the most foolish?
- Who is the most over rated player, and under rated player?
- You knew it was coming, How does Tebow do?
- Best trade rumor of the week end.
- Best player rumored to be cut at the start of the new league year.
Feel free to add in any of your own predictions.
This is a fan-created post. Dawgs By Nature assumes no responsibility for the content listed.
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I can’t think of any predictions right now. however, I do not know how many ppl here have the NFL network. somehow, my cable package includes it and I feel lucky. if no one has it I can write updates every day (which still if ppl have it could be nice). I would focus more on players we have talked about/players at positions the browns might draft…so no kicker updates…we aren’t the raiders.
Damn, you stole my JPP pick.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 22, 2010 6:23 PM EST reply actions
2. That WR from Fresno State
3. Dezmon Briscoe
4. 60 yard shuttle/ Vertical jump
6. Tebow is an idiot and isn’t throwing.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 22, 2010 6:26 PM EST reply actions
Vertical jump is a useful test. It might not tell you who is going to win jump balls (because catching/defending a football is much different than hitting some plastic markers) but it can tell scouts something about a player’s “explosiveness”.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Just saw that on Tebow. Don’t understand why he wouldn’t take every single chance to show how much he has improved.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 22, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
Because, if he hasn’t, his stock will drop further.
And I predict that Thaddeus Gibson will put up sick numbers and become the talk of the combine. Besides Disgustingly Large Man’s 40 Part II (T. Cody.)
I like the Thaddeus pick.
I guess my thoughts on Tebow are this: If he throws at the combine and looks poor, then he still has a shot to look good at his Pro Day. If he threw great at the combine (as unlikely as that is) then he can start going up the draft boards ASAP.
He is placing all his eggs in one basket. He better hope he kills it on his Pro Day, because if he doesn’t he may drop even further than we originally thought.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 22, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I’m thinking Tebow knows he isn’t ready to show the improvement teams want to see so he’s going to continue to work and hope to show something on his pro day. They probably feel the book is already written on him and if he can’t show significant improvement he would be wasting his time going, when he can keep working and go all in on his pro day.
They gone have to stop sleeping on me one day.. I gotta be one of the best
About 3 hours ago by Eric Wright Cleveland Browns – Cornerback
I just read that Tebow is changing his throwing motion. That’s probably why he isn’t throwing for scouts until Florida’s pro-day.
If you're at the table and you don't see a sucker..... you're it.
by Brownie's Year on Feb 22, 2010 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
I just posted an interview from ESPN and he talks about why he isn’t throwing. Apparently he thinks he just won’t get enough throws to show his improvements.
by OSUMoneyball on Feb 22, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah, Jevan Snead will rise because of the combine cuz he can make all the throws when there are no defenders.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 22, 2010 7:23 PM EST reply actions
at quarterback??
He isn’t really a great QB prospect. as a WR I might take a shot at him. if we want to run the wildcat with a QB, don’t we have cribbs?
Your underating him. Not every player is ready on day 1. He would be a great pick up along with the proper training / developement. That’s the problem with this team, the player developement is way lacking. Get the experts in there and shine up those diamonds.
did you watch his production this year? he got destroyed by every halfway decent team he played.
the only teams where he was at least competent and the team had a winning record were georgia (and I don’t consider 6.1 ypa and 50% comp % all that great) and Iowa state (7-6 record…less than 6 ypa against Iowa st.)
he beat up on some pretty bad defenses. he put up gaudy numbers playing against bad schools such as rice, baylor, and grambling state.
Oklahoma state runs a spread style offense…still, for that offense, his completion percentage is horrible (less than 60%). he doesn’t have that strong of an arm, and still isn’t great at reading defenses. because hs is a good running QB, the offense ran a spread/option where there were a lot of short routes and he could take off with the ball. he still can’t read coverages, isn’t overly accurate, and doesn’t make the best decisions.
was he a great player as a junior or was he a product of a spread/option offense and the players around him? I am inclined to believe the latter. when he lost dez bryant and pettigrew, he couldn’t do anything with the ball against competent teams. It is obvious there would be some dropoff but consider that he was throwing to a first round pick (and a future possible first rounder). he also had a great running game going. this year, their running game was not as effective…looking at it, he looks like the product of the system and the players around him. the only positive I see with him is that he did take a significant amount of snaps from center.
he has made a name for himself by beating up on lesser defenses with great talent on his team but not coming through when actually playing a solid team.
YPA=bad way to evaluate a QB. So many things can affect YPA.
What was the defense doing?
How good are the WRs after the catch?
How good are the WRs at all?
What kinds of throws and reads does the offense ask the QB to make?
What was the running game like?
You point it out yourself, his running game was worse this year. Doesn’t mean he can’t be an NFL QB. A system can’t make accurate throws for you. A system can’t give you intangibles. How do you know he can’t read coverages?
I agree with your assessment that Robinson is probably not a day-1 starter and that he was overrated. But no one was talking first round picks, or even first day picks. A 5th rounder is a really small risk to take on a guy like Robinson.
I think we should take a QB high if at all, but I disagree with your reasoning.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
maybe some of it wasn’t the greatest reasoning.
He is in a similar system though to colt McCoy. he runs the spread in OkSt. the thing is, most spread QBs have a high completion percentage. for a spread QB this year, his was extremely low. I also worry about his interceptions. he did throw a significant number of interceptions.
I don’t know 100% that he can’t read coverages. However, I did watch some tape of him and he threw it into coverage a little too often and didn’t seem to always read the defense well.
Robinson has the one quality that I do not like to see in a mobile QB. he is too eager to run. even more so than tebow or lefevour, he scrambles when he doesn’t see his option. if he doesn’t scramble, he often throws it to one of his first options whether the guy is open or not.
For every 2.3 passes thrown, he scrambles once. yes some are maybe designed runs, but he does run it a lot, even for a scrambling QB. tebow has a smaller ratio, but locker is at about 2.6, and lefevour is just slightly higher (also around 2.6). it is just that he doesn’t look through all of his progressions enough and he is too eager to take off running and do it himself. this comes with time, but because of working in a spread, and these tendencies he still will be raw.
I don’t disagree with him that low, however, I just don’t think he truly has the arm or the elite accuracy to be even a solid backup QB in the league. I think he would be better off trying to do what some scouts say tebow should do.
“The spread” is not an offensive system. Teams spread the field horizontally as a means toward achieving many different goals. And even if teams run their offense from the spread, and they spread to pass, they can spread to pass in different ways.
Interceptions usually are a good way to measure a QB’s decision-making to this point in time. Obviously, proper film study and scouting are needed to see why and how those INTs are happening.
“The running QB” is effective in theory. The fact that Robinson runs is not a concern. The concern should be how he does on those runs. I would want Pryor or Vick running a lot in college if teams were dropping 8 in to coverage and they could pick up 8 yards at a time scrambling. If he runs often, then doesn’t pick up a lot of yards on those runs, and there are injury concerns too, then that’s a big problem. But I didn’t think that was the case. If you can’t throw at all, you can’t be a full time NFL QB, sure.
Robinson is the kind of guy with the kind of numbers that is going to be available that late. If he didn’t have any question marks, he wouldn’t last past the 5th pick. If I were a team with an established QB, or if I believed in looking for QBs late in the draft, there would be no reason not to take him in the 5th.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I don’t disagree…
However, one thing you mentioned does apply. how he runs. he was not all that effective of a runner. he had 2.7 yards per carry and a lng of 22 this year even though he ran it over 100 times. he just hasn’t been a great scrambler even though this is one of his best skills.
Then he’s making bad decisions.
Now is that 2.7 accounting for sacks, or only when he takes off? Because 2.7 is pretty bad.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by the way, on robinson.
I was watching him throw during drills and he didn’t look all that good. he overthrew receivers multiple times…and this is just a receiver running a simple route without any coverage. this worries me and without coverage guys, he looks the worst of all these QBs so far.
I don’t know what you were watching. He was one of the better QBs there. And this is coming from someone who isn’t a big Robinson fan.
Tony Pike was by far the worst.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 28, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
I didn’t really see pike.
The throws I saw though, robinson’s footwork wasn’t great plus he had some bad overthrows. these weren’t small overthrows but they were overthrows by like 5-10 yards it looked like.
Rob looked like he was pretty accurate. Pike on the other hand never gave his receivers a chance.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 28, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
1. im going to say iupati will explode at the combine, or everson griffin
2. i would say dan lefevour
3.taylor mays
4.dont know
5.most overrated imo is taylor mays, most under, kao misi from utah
6. who cares tim tebow sucks!!!!!!
Lifes A Dance, You Learn As You Go!
by findlaybrownslover on Feb 22, 2010 8:42 PM EST reply actions
Lefeuvor isn’t throwing
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 22, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions
If he were, I would predict that whoever’s announcing will call him LeFarve at least once, either on purpose or accidentally.
Is this the whale section?
1. I know I am being a homer here but Buffalo has some nice players in later rounds. although buffalo is a MAC school, it really isn’t at all prestigious. their RB, james starks was talked about at one point as a first day pick. however he had an injury and missed his senior season. Naaman Roosevelt is, after freddie barnes, the best receiver in the MAC. His career numbers match up well with barnes’
Barnes: 298 rec 3299 yds, 30 TDs
Roosevelt: 268 rec 3551 yds 28 TDs.
Also, when I look at the stats, Barnes only had one stellar year. that was this year. yes it was extremely stellar but he never truly reached his potential until this year. he had some good seasons and showed flashes but was not that consistent. barnes was also in a good offense with a great QB, Tyler Sheehan. Roosevelt DID have drew willy, who was a great QB in 2008, but his QB this year was inconsistent. even though Naaman Roosevelt only played in 10 games this year, and even though he had a shaky, inconsistent sophmore QB, he still put up almost 1,000 yards. He averaged about 100 yards a game. While he saw a dropoff in stats, he has shown more consistency than barnes. he also has underrated hands and is more of a deep threat than barnes. the last thing I love about him is when he catches the ball, he is like a returner out there. He started off in college as a running QB then as a WR/Return specialist. when he catches a ball, he is good at finding seams and finding areas to run. He is elusive and for his 190 pound frame, he is very good at breaking tackles. he is slippery and he is spectacular at setting up blocks after the catch. He is IMO and in many people’s opinions a 3rd rounder but he seems to go later in a lot of mocks. if he puts up good speed numbers at the combine he could be good.
oh..I forgot his routes are beautiful. He might not have elite speed or size but he has gluehands, can get separation, and runs pristine routes. he can be a surprising deep threat in the NFL.
Like Roosevelt, James starks is slightly slow and slightly small. also like Roosevelt he has great hands and is very slippery. ALSO like him, he was a former QB. Starks does not have Ideal size (6’2 218-220) but his size is at least solid. His projected 40 right now is about a 4.54-4.55. this is not amazing but running backs have been drafted with lower. starks though is very agile and slippery. Intersting: at the end of the regular season last year, if he came out, he was projected in the mid-late second round. However, he had a bad game in the bowl game and then in spring practices he got hurt. from what I have heard though he is perfectly healthy now. but because of this, his value has dropped. You can’t argue with his production though.
Before the injury he had 2 straight 1,000 yard seasons. he also had 3 straight seasons of at least a 4.0 YPC including a 4.9 his junior year. his career YPC is about a 4.5 this is very impressive, even against MAC competition. in about 2.5 starting seasons, he had over 3000 rushing yards. and 34 TDs. HE played about 32 games in college. so that is about 100 yards rushing a game (slightly less) and about a TD a game. he is also an excellent receiver out of the backfield.
He had about 130 receptions in about 3 seasons. his average receiving game was 4 receptions for 30 yards. he was a serious threat in the offense and could produce in many ways. However he will be downgraded b/c the mediocre competition, injury, and lack of elite speed. He is someone to watch though.
4.5 YPC isn’t impressive in college.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 22, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
1. It is not horrible.
2. He also didn’t have a senior year to show people. Like I said, after his junior year, he was considered a 2nd rounder by many people. His main problem was a lack of a senior season. For a true sophmore who wasn’t recruited as a RB and was in a more passing oriented offense, 4.4 yards per carry and 1.000 yards is still good. the next year he increased his YPC to about 5. this is pretty darn good and he was only a junior. Also, buffalo’s line at the time was still young and improving. they in fact ran ALL their backs for 4.5 yards per carry. the offensive line improved and if he was healthy, it is likely he would have run for at least 5 yards per carry again.
the point is, it is hard to judge overall production like that YPC without a senior season. He is someone I was saying could put in a good combine and surprise people.
Roosevelt looked bad in the senior bowl.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 22, 2010 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
The senior bowl counts for something but it is not the be all end all. yes, this probably dropped his draft stock but that doesn’t diminish the fact that he could be a good process. until we see him go at the combine, it is still just speculation. However, he is someone that could rise with a solid combine.
yep. That is why I said him. if he posts a solid 40 time and shows some other good skills he can rise. the thing is he is one of those guys where people see a lot of potential but a lot of questions. Like:
-Did he benefit from a good prototypical passing QB like drew willy
-What is his speed like?
-How can he perform against higher level competition. although he performed well in the bowl game against UConn he had a bad senior bowl.
-Is his production real?
and many others that often come with a productive player from a mid-major.
Starks could also be interesting b/c there are even more questions…because he missed his senior season. that dropped him in draft projections about 4 rounds. If he puts up a stellar 40 time (like 4.5 flat or under) compared to what scouts are expecting and show good skills in other areas (such as JUGS) he could rise too.
Taylor Mays has to be the guy with the most to lose at the combine. He’s been so talked up as an athlete if he doesn’t run something under 4.40 and weigh 230+ his stock will plummet because he clearly does not pass the test in a real football setting. He absolutely must prove he is a freak athlete amongst freak athletes.
Patrick Robinson could impress someone enough to boost his stock. I think he takes it easy on too many plays and has not been able to play at a level that matches his amazing speed. I could see him running some ridiculous times.
G. McCoy should look a lot better than Suh. Hopefully Eric Berry won’t look like a top-5 pick. Anthony Davis should look really good, provided he has his weight under control. I can see Sergio Kindle looking better than Brandon Graham.
The most pointless tests are the bench press and the Wonderlic. Eli scored better on the Wonderlic than Peyton. And the bench press doesn’t measure strength for a lot of linemen, who are the guys you want to be able to push others around:
Many players simply don’t need to press forward with their arms like that.
Even those who do don’t need to lie on their back while they press a bar upward.
Even those who do don’t need to repeat that action 25+ times in a row, a feat that probably requires more local muscular endurance than strength.
And at the combine, players get away with horrible form on their presses.
The bench press test simply is not functional as it is run at the combine.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I probably sound like a broken record, but one of my old coaches always used to ask why the linemen were doing straight bench presses. He made a pointof yelling at guys who blocked by pushing straight out because they weren’t low enough. A good blocker should be pushing on an incline. So I agree, the bench press is pretty worthless.
by Legoman0721 on Feb 23, 2010 3:22 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
i was always taught to block with my thumbs pointed straight up and my fingers pointed out, and that works completely different muscles than a bench press where you have your thumbs pointed in and your fingers pointed up.
I hate the steelers the way a mother loves a child.
by notthatnoise on Feb 23, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
Well, there is the inclined bench press.
If I hear "There's always next year" one more time...
by SpecialBrownie on Feb 23, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Wonderlic and Bench are useful generalizations. Wonderlic shows playbook intelligence, not necessarily on the field. success, and the Bench gives you strength plateaus for certain players, i.e strong for his position.
this article from yahoo! sports has an interesting take on the subject:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;ylt=AryaGI9NcOkuARipZrgnRlDubYF?slug=nfp-is_too_much_stock_put_in_the_combine_html-2010223&prov=nfp&type=lgns
I hate the steelers the way a mother loves a child.
by notthatnoise on Feb 23, 2010 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
The bench gives you good strength measurements for skill players, QBs, DBs, and maybe some LBs. Anything over 15-20 reps isn’t measuring strength, it measures local muscular endurance of the chest and triceps in a one-set environment. It doesn’t measure anything close to game conditions.
I think it would be useful in the case of a lighter player putting up a surprisingly large amount of reps, or a supposedly stronger player failing to reach something over 15-20. So yeah, you might be able to determine that a CB is strong for his position, but for the big guys it doesn’t matter if they put up 35 or 40 reps.
As for the Wonderlic, I don’t even know if it measures playbook intelligence. It isn’t a playbook test. And IMO you want players whose knowledge of the playbook is proven on the field, not just in a classroom. I am sure there are some brilliant students who are football-dumb, who are better in the classroom than on the field. Intelligence matters a lot, but it has to translate, which is why I think Mangini does all of the extra stuff at private workouts.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I was in the top 10% of my class and personally I had a terrible time comprehending plays and memorizing them sometimes.
If I hear "There's always next year" one more time...
by SpecialBrownie on Feb 24, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
I think Squat and Power Clean would be a much better gauge of football strength than the Bench Press.
Power clean would measure explosiveness. Which could be considered a football strength.
"Spartans never die Jorge. They're just missing in action."
by SpecialBrownie on Mar 1, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
Sure does. That exercise and squats more than anything helped me drop my 40 time about a full second during my HS career. Don’t know why the combine doesn’t measure it. Cleans and Squats have to be the two most important exercises a football player can do.
Why do you think Barry Sanders could cut and accelerate like he did? natural talent played a role but he was also freakishly strong. I think he squatted somewhere around 700 Lbs.
Interesting note here:
Adam Schefter is guaranteeing that the Rams will take Sam Bradford with the number one pick in the draft.
If this was anyone else, looking at you Mort, I wouldn’t even bat an eye at something like this. But this is Adam Schefter and he is not one to throw around crazy ass ideas just to “break” a story.
This just further helps the Browns. I said before that Eric Berry was going to drop to us, and the Browns damn well better make sure that we snatch him up.
Now if we can just get someone interested in Jimmy Clausen…
So you would take Eric Berry over Jimmy Clausen?
I think that´s ridiculous. What are we doing collecting college trophies through proxy?
so you think our defense is fine?
We take what is the biggest need. we need safeties much more desperately than QB.
I think Abe Elam is a great strong safety. And we shot ourselves in the foot by not moving Eric Wright to free safety. In the concussion context this may read as extreme, but he turned out looking like a total wuss at cornerback.
by mooncamping on Feb 27, 2010 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
We had Nate Ness in training camp too. If they don´t prevent him from playing to true form, we´ll be sorry. Oh, and me, myself and us, would never think of doing such a think, we have a deep wishing well.
by mooncamping on Feb 27, 2010 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
I think they take Clausen over Berry. They badly need a QB and that’s what I see Petey doing.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 26, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
John clayton also has them taking a QB.
It is the money aspect of it and this is a lot of the reason I feel a QB will go #1.
Its all well and good at the combine to find the best player but by draft day, you are thinking about money a lot more. do you really want to pay 10 million dollars a year to suh? that is elite DT money. it makes much more sense to pay that kind of money to a QB who will have more of an impact on the game if good and his impact is easier to see.
Yup. This happens every year. A QB might not be the best player on the board but when it comes to the draft it’s just so hard for teams to turn down a potential franchise QB if they’re in need of one. QB’s often end up going higher than they’re projected a month or two before the draft, when teams realize that you need a great QB to build your team around. Even though we all know the bust rate for QB’s in the top 10, we also know that’s where you find most of your franchise QB’s. And it’s very hard for a team in need of a franchise QB to pass on one for a DL or OT or anything else.
That’s why I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Rams and/or Redskins end up taking Bradford or Clausen (or both). That would obviously help the Browns’ chance of getting Berry. Of course, I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns took Bradford if he was there at 7 and Holmgren thinks he’s a potential star.
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 26, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think its impossible for STL to pas on Suh. During one of the last few games of the year, they punted the ball on 4th and short with under 2 minutes remaining and driving into the opponents territory. They were obviously playing for draft position and at that time the only 2 teams with records as bad as theirs was detroit and Washington. So they had absolutely no threat at another team the QB they wanted, but yet they still were playing for position. So they had to have their eyes set on someone. That had to be Suh.
by The Licensed Pessimist on Feb 26, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe the coach just had a terrible decision.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 26, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
I think it is impossible for them to take Suh IMO. you can’t just look at the best player is. you have to look at all the factors.
Past Drafts for the team: they have not drafted a QB high in a while. if they get a solid WR in the 2nd that is a fairly competent offense if the QB turns out to be decent. 2 of the past 3 years they have used picks along the Defensive line. what makes you think they will take a third?
Positional Value: DT does not have a high positional value. while an elite player still makes an impact, the player itself does not have an impact on the game as many other positions that more often go that high in the draft. Did mean Joe Greene himself make that steel curtain great? He did play a significant role but LC greenwood was just as key too (at DE) and Lambert and Ham were a force to be reckoned with too. the point is, an elite DT is not the game changer an elite DE or QB or RB or LT is…
Money: when it all comes down to it, it is a game of balancing the salary cap. the first overall pick will command likely 12 million dollars a year. to put it this way: Albert haynesworth with that massive contract for a DT made about 14.3 Million. so he would be payed the amount of an elite player at the position coming right out. Positions like QBs and LTs and even RBs are payed much higher in general so it seems like a much smaller cap hit when your QB is making that much than when your DT is making that much.
History: QBs just go #1. history shows this. when a QB doesn’t go #1 it is always because
A) it was a horrible QB class and none were even projected to go in the top 15 (and ended up not going in the top 15)
B) the team has already picked up their young QB of the future, or traded for a veteran who is a good player.
While a QB isn’t drafted #1 every single year, just about always, the team that passed had a QB that they were developing and grooming. Who do the rams have…Marc Bulger? Kyle Boller? Boller was really bad last year and is past the age where he can truly be groomed…Keith Null? Null was a 6th round pick from D2 football that looked completely overwhelmed when he got the chance…Do they need a QB? YES. is is a huge need for them? Yes. The only need I can think of that might be bigger is WR (that will be drafted that high). they have a solid left tackle in alex barron and have last years top pick (I’m pretty sure jason smith) that they are going to have play. they have a great RB. they couldn’t stop the run all that well but they also had massive injuries on the interior. they pressure the QB fairly well. they COULD use an upgrade in the secondary but there is no one with that pick that they truly could use. they have mediocre OLBs but a great MLB. By far though, their weakest area is passing in general. the O-Line is solid and the receivers are decent…they just need a QB.
The Rams have maybe the worst run blocking O-Line (Bears are damn close). Alex Barron is a joke of an OT and should be replaced ASAP.
I felt so bad for Steven Jackson last season (I had him in fantasy too which helped) and I have never seen a RB have to break a tackle on every play just to get back to the LOS. Steven Jax is aso good but rarely gets his props because of his horsesh*t offensive line.
Plus he gets so much credit from me when he was playing injured last season when his team was mailing it in around him.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 26, 2010 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
I agree.
Barron IMO is not horrible. he is not that great but he is definitely better than some starters. he is really a RT and started his career there. if Jason smith can develop, and they have him at LT, Barron at RT it is a decent line. they need interior lineman but you don’t get that with the first overall pick…
Speaking of Bradford, Yahoo! Sports reports that he might be moving up the draft boards after weighing in at 236 pounds, up from 223 during his playing days at Oklahoma. Adding that weight — mostly muscle — might quell concerns that he can physically hold up to the rigors of playing QB in the NFL.
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 26, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
I still would worry about his shoulder.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 26, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Why?
If James Andrews signs off, what is there to worry about?
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 26, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
I still worry he can’t take a hit
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
I totally agree…
it is that, combined with the money that you have to shell out for that first overall pick. if you shell that out to a DT, he would be among some of the top payed DTs as a ROOKIE. you want to give that kind of money more to a guy like a QB, DE, or RB, or LT.
Personal preference, but I would never give big money to a RB.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 26, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
Just the other day Schefter was guaranteeing that Bradford wasn’t an option. What an idiot.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 26, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting Height and Weights from the combine:
Spiller: 5’10 196lbs
Dwyer: 5’11 229lbs
Ryan Matthews: 5’11 218lbs
Joe McKnight: 5’11 198lbs
Gerhart: 6’0 231lbs
Blount: 6:0 241lbs
Jahvid Best: 5’11 199lbs
Golden Tate: 5’10 199lbs (He better run a real fast time)
Shipley: 5’11 193lbs
Demaryius Thomas: 6’3 224
Dez Bryant: 6’2 225lbs
Benn: 6’1 219lbs
Mike Williams: 6’1 221lbs (Dude is a sleeper, boom or bust)
Damien Williams: 6’0 197lbs (I don’t understand the love for this guy)
McCoy: 6’1 216lbs
Clausen: 6’2 222lbs
Sam Bradford: 6’4 236lbs (Reports out of combine is that Bradford is ripped at 236)
Tebow: 6’2 236lbs
A lot of the WR’s seem on the shorter side. If Tate doesn’t blaze a good time, he is gonna drop.
Ha, you posted this as I was posting an article about Bradford’s added muscle above.
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 26, 2010 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
Why does Tate HAVE to run a fast time. He probably will but it’s not like he is a lot shorter than what he was listed as. Every receiver there is an inch shorter than what they are listed at by their school.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 26, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
As are many other good receivers.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 26, 2010 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
yeah…he could be a desean Jackson type. I don’t know if he has desean jackson speed but he does have great speed…If he puts up maybe a 4.4 flat or slightly under, his stock might rise a bit. desean jackson put up a 4.35. while that is faster than the time I listed, tate is slightly more skilled overall and started off higher before the official measurments. also, tate has a lot more bulk and can take a hit better. if he can run a 4.4 flat at almost 200 pounds AND be 5’10’’, the height doesn’t matter as much. if he puts up a great vertical jump (like about 38 inches) he honestly could rise. Desean jackson fell b/c of height but he also had very little bulk (coming in under 170 pounds) and had a poor vertical jump (less than 35 inches). granted technically his vertical jump wasn’t that poor but was pretty average, but as a 5’10’’ receiver, you need to have a great vertical jump. steve smith is short, but he has a great vertical jump and can jump over DBs.
I see Tate being similar two both Steve smiths
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
yes. the one on the giants is a little better built so I think he could be more like that steve smith…
The Panthers’ Steve Smith is the better Steve Smith to this point. Hands down.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Oh. I agree.
I am saying tate might be a little more like the one on the giants…
It is hard to say though.
I missed the word ‘built’.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I thought you said:
the one on the giants is a little better
not
the one on the giants is a little better built
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Dude, he is 5’10.
Can you name a 5’10 WR that didn’t have blazing speed being drafted in the first two rounds? Harvin had it. Santonio had it. Sinorice Moss had it. Roscoe Parrish had it. Same with Lee Evans.
Antwaan Randle El, Troy Edwards and maybe Mark Clayton didn’t have it?
He is shorter than Steve Smith. Unless he runs a really fast 40, he is probably going to drop out of the second round. Benn, Thomas and Bryant don’t have to run like the wind because they have size.
That is why he HAS to run a fast time. No size and suspect speed equals 3rd round.
Don’t get it confused, I like Tate and to be honest I hope he runs slow, then we can grab him in the third.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 26, 2010 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
I should have noted, I went back 10 years.
I may have missed some, but my point stands. No size and suspect speed equals 3rd round.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 26, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
I think there are going to be some really good players when we pick in the second round.
Maybe an impact lineman slips (Dan Williams, Jared Ordrick, and hopefully Brandon Graham).
We should have our pick out of the RB’s after Spiller.
Maybe an ILB like Spikes or a guard like Pouncey falls to us.
I think Tate may be good but I would rather use a third then a second.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 27, 2010 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
I’m not a big Odrick fan. He disappears in big games a lot. I don’t think he had a tackle in the Ohio State game and as a 4-3 tackle there’s no excuse to not have some statistical impact. The other two are studs, though.
That Move the Sticks site I linked to in the Fanshots had a cool breakdown of Brandon Spikes. He views him as an average 4-3 linebacker but a great 3-4 inside linebacker. He’s definitely an option in the second round.
Pouncey is really a center. He is more of a technique guy, which is super important at center, but secondary to raw, functional strength at guard.
no way he falls to the third. Pats have 3 2nd rounders
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
Why are the Pats a lock to take him?
Since 2003 they have taken a WR before the 5th round twice (Chad Jackson and Bethel Johnson).
In fact, Belichick has shown a pattern of drafting defense early. He has used a first or second rounder on a “skill position” 3 times since 2002 (out of 16 picks).
Belichick has built that franchise with defense first and fills in the skill positions with free agents (all the RB’s) or trades (Moss and Welker).
I don’t think Tate ends up in NE unless it is later in the draft. Plus if we have learned anything for NE, it is that one of those second rounders will be flipped for more picks (possibly a first in next seasons draft, they already have two 1st rounders in ’11).
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 27, 2010 1:06 AM EST up reply actions
Moss has 1 year and Welker has a serious injury
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Couldn’t this also be:
Moss is disinterested and Welker has a serious injury
by Chief WaDrew on Feb 28, 2010 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, either way.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 28, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Steve smith though (the one in carolina) is 5’9’’
I agree he has to run fast. however, people HAVE seen his speed on film and he probably won’t drop out of the first.
I do agree he needs to run fast. if he runs around a 4.4 he stays put and possibly rises. he is projected as a late rounder and most places project his 40 around a 4.44-4.45. If he runs above a 4.5 yes he will drop. if he runs about a 4.4 flat, he will rise. I think for him, a thing that might matter just as much is vertical jump. if he can put up an elite vertical jump (close to 40 inches like steve smith) he can rise too. for his height though, he does have good bulk which is an advantage over guys like desean jackson.
Steve Smith (Carolina) lasted until the third round even with his elite speed.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 27, 2010 1:09 AM EST up reply actions
he had game speed not draft speed. he ran a 4.5 40 in the combine and measured in at 5’9’’…plus he didn’t have as much bulk as tate, and he also was from a smaller college (Utah).
If golden tate was about 10 pounds lighter, and ran a 4.5 40 he MIGHT slip into the third…however, I feel he is a more polished prospect coming out than steve smith was.
Link on the time? Only things I can find say Smith ran a 4.38 with the Panthers after rehabbing an injury (lists it as his fastest time ever), and a 4.40 coming out of college.
Tate plays fast. And he is a little bigger than Smith, probably a little slower off the line, and doesn’t have Smith’s character concerns. No one wanted Smith because of his attitude.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
actually. I found another source and it looks like that steve smith DID run a 4.38. My source was not that reliable.
true about the attitude concerns.
Tate might be slightly slower off the line, but we don’t really know until we see his splits on the 40 at the combine.
the one thing that surprises me about golden tate though is his bulk. for all this talk of him being a desean jackson type, he is built well. he weighed in at a similar weight to jordan shipley who is considered more of a possession guy who is a little bigger (in girth/size not height)
The 10 yard split would be a valuable number (because that sort of short-area burst is more valuable than ‘long speed’) but I just don’t trust anyone or anything to properly time that thing. The differences are so small…I just don’t trust those numbers. He plays slower off the line than the Panther’s Smith, building speed as he goes.
Tate is like Smith in that he is a lot better at coming down with deep balls than any of his measurables would indicate.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
if tate runs about a 4.4 he could shoot up draft boards. I have seen his projected 40 time many places around a 4.44-4.46. If he can do better than that, he solidifies his draft position. if he runs below a 4.5, because of his size limitations, he will definitely drop.
also, I was looking at walterfootball on his profile. the one guy they compare him to was steve smith on the giants (who ran a 4.44 at the combine)
Don’t get it confused, I like Tate and to be honest I hope he runs slow, then we can grab him in the third.
Tate did not run slow.
I just saw something on-line that said he ran a 4.42 and 4.37 40.
Wow. Dude made some money today.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 28, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
I would think that was about what was expected of him. He beats guys deep, its the short-area I think scouts would be concerned with.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I thought he was better in short areas and true deep speed was a little of a concern. from what I watched, he was like a RB working in space and was great at YAC. some did question his deep speed and his 40 is definitely faster than it was projected in some places I saw it.
He was a runningback in high school. I agree with bross’s evaluation of him; he seems better in space than over distance.
He did put up an excellent 40 time. its not that he can’t beat guys deep its that he doesn’t have elite deep speed.
He always looked good deep in college. I think his 40 time just helped prove that he does have the deep speed.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 28, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
I guess it was Golden Tate making Jimmy Clausen look good.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 28, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Sanchez had Damian Williams and Patrick Turner. Stafford had Massoquoi and AJ Green.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Mar 1, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t get what you are trying to do here, I was pointing out that Tate and Floyd are both great receivers. Do you disagree?
no
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by TheRealSlimShady on Mar 2, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
I thought I had seen Thomas listed at 6’3"…exactly the height he measured at the combine.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
He is the exception
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
Eric Decker, Dez Bryant, Lafell and Alexander are all guys I’d seen listed at their combine height at least when you round to the whole inch. And it isn’t like Tate was listed at 6’3".
Tate could be 5’6", it doesn’t matter. My point is that not everyone does it. You don’t need to make excuses for him and point to what other people do, you can just point to his highlights where I am sure he beats plenty of players taller than he is.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Ditto.
I am liking Dickerson from Pitt. Don’t know if he is a WR or TE in the NFL, but the kid can move well for someone his size, and he’s making some pretty good catches. I would like to see him work out amongst WRs.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
My brother texted me saying he ran a 4.4 flat.
Wow.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 27, 2010 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Thats the time NFL network had him at. You can see him move well during the drills, too.
He looks pretty small for a TE though.
Bruce Campbell ran a 4.85 at 315lbs, apparently.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
yes. he measured in at about 6’2’’ and slightly under 230.
While this is small for a TE, in his college career he showed solid skills at in line blocking. He also put up some of the better bench press numbers. I know you don’t like that stat (and I don’t think it extremely useful) but it does show at least a little bit that he has solid strength for his size.
also, even though he is a little under 6’6’’ he has some of the longest arms in the draft with 34 inches each. this means that in blocking, he has a longer wingspan and this could help with blocking and catching.
He doesn’t have polished hands yet but for a TE they were pretty good.
No matter where he plays he can be a matchup problem. as a TE he is an adequate blocker.
for all the criticism he gets for size, he is the same size shannon sharpe was in his playing career. not only that, but I don’t know if shannon sharpe had 34 inch arms, a 4.4 40 and a 42 inch vertical leap.
Here are his complete combine #s from what I have gathered
Height 6’1’’ 1/3 Weight 226
40 time: 4.4 flat then 4.43
vertical leap 42 inches
Winspan 68 inches
225 reps bench press: 24
Although he does not have a true position, from what I have seen he can play both TE and WR fairly well. he is not a true fit at either but b/c of his skills can cause matchup problems at either position. he is big and strong for a WR and has amazing leaping ability. for a TE he is extremely fast.
While this is small for a TE, in his college career he showed solid skills at in line blocking.
Sure, and he played strong too. But he also played in the Big Least. Is he going to be able to push Terrelle Suggs around like that? Could he block Aaron Smith at least enough to take him out of the play? Or can he be sudden enough to get open vs. NFL corners? He can certainly block a corner.
We need to find someone to work the middle of the field, but I don’t know if a weapon like Dickerson would be too much of a luxury at this point. He certainly fits the mold of “football player”.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I honestly don’t think he can block some of the guys you talked about. one thing they said is he definitely should not line up against a 5 technique guy like Smith.
He has great athleticism and might be able to occasionally get open against corners. He is versatile though and can fill the dallas clark type of role. clark lines up a lot in the slot. this is the kind of thing Dickerson can do a lot. as a slot guy who is a versatile weapon on your offense, he is dangerous. he could be a great player almost right away IMO matching up against nickelbacks, safeties and linebackers.
For if we could get him, it depends on if he is available in certain rounds. I would most likely take him with our 4th overall pick (the 2nd one in the third round) but probably not higher. if he is gone by then, so be it. I don’t think he is truly worth a first 2 round pick and he is way too much of a luxury before that pick. He definitely can work the middle and from what I saw, he will be a good “football player” wherever he goes.
He is probably an H-back at this level
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by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, Bruce Campbell ran a 4.8! He’s a Raider
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 4:05 PM EST reply actions
Jimmy Graham and Ed Dickson are putting up fast times. Some good TE prospects.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 4:06 PM EST reply actions
I know it isn’t an important drill, but Mitch Petrus, a guard prospect I like put up 45 reps!
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 4:08 PM EST reply actions
Tony Washington out of Albenine Christian and Alex Parsons out of USC look really athletic in drills. I wouldn’t mind looking at Washington later as a RT. He is definitely athletic enough to play RT but I don’t know if he can run block at the level we’d want yet.
Trent Williams and Campbell are continuing to put on a show. Campbell looks ripped at 315 lbs. I think both are boosting their stock, and scouts might start looking at their film through increasingly rose-colored lenses.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Trent should be a good RT, and Campbell will be good but he will always be hurt.
I haven’t seen Tony Washington but Alb Christian was good in the NFL last year.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Washington looks really good in the drills that work with pulling, cutting and running, but his technique got a little sloppy in the rabbit/mirror pass block drill. Kid is big and athletic but his technique could use work. I would not mind a later pick on him at all. Maybe our 2nd 3rd rounder or later.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I really doubt we would need to take him that early. His stock is low now.
Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.
by TheRealSlimShady on Feb 27, 2010 8:20 PM EST up reply actions
What would you try to extract out of Indy, if they wanted to trade into our 1st round spot? They are in dire need of a Stud LT, and we are in a sweetspot for LT’s.
Animadvertistine, ubicumque stes, fumum recta in faciem ferri?
1st, 2nd and next years first would do it for me.
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 2, 2010 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
I think I would take 1st, 2nd, 3rd all this year. Or 1st, 2nd, next year’s 2nd. Two 1’s seems a little pricey.
Provided Suh and Berry were not on the board, of course.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I think two firsts are fair because we are moving down 24 spots.
by Bernie19Kosar on Mar 2, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
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