ILB, S Most Fragile on D
Interesting article that breaks down career expectancy for different defensive positions.
Who would have known that ILBs wear down so much quicker than OLBs? Or that so many safeties were done by 30?
The author does point out that draft picks should be valued by how much of their rookie contracts are impactful, so he doesn't consider this a reason not to draft Berry.
about 2 years ago
danvail
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This is my concern with Berry. He leads with his head too often. As talented as he is, I can’t shake the feeling that he’s a short-timer like Poole.
Also: You’ve got an ILB where OLB should be in your post, danvail.
Dawgs By Nature -- where Hitler, apparently, 'did some good things'.
I disagree.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Was the first version of the sentence correct?
"Spartans never die Jorge. They're just missing in action."
by SpecialBrownie on Apr 7, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Heres why this is:
The ILB and safety positions make vastly less impact on the outcome of the game than outside pass rushers and CBs. So a veteran outside pass rusher or CB or even DT who is still a solid player can get that one extra veteran contract (costly for teams). Meanwhile their colleges who play ILB and Safety just don’t have the same impact on the game in general (except some certain rare examples, and even they don’t effect the game as much as the elite pass rushers) so the ILBs and Safeties are more replaceable with younger players who don’t cost so much.
Look what happened this year: the Giants basically told Antonio Pierce to get lost while the Colts nearly jettisoned Gary Brackett. And both those guys play for tampa 2 teams where the MLB actually has much more importance than a 3-4 ILB.
While I love Berry, even drafting him at #7 is a huge risk because you are putting a huge financial commitment into a player who would have to be literally the best safety in the league and have a rare impact on our defense to justify the cost of his rookie contract. If you are the Browns and you don’t think that Berry is a head and shoulders upgrade over Earl Thomas, then the prudent move is to trade down and get Thomas at a much lower price.
"Smokescreen."
Yeah. Let’s just run a 4-4 and have 1 safety in the backfield. They don’t do anything. Hell, let’s run a 5-4 and let more players have a better chance of making an impact in the game. That would leave us with only 2 guys doing nothing instead of 4.
Everything seems less funny to me since I quit drinking.
by Brownie's Year on Apr 7, 2010 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I still can’t believe what I just read. What position do you think leads the league every year in tackles? It’s the Inside Linebacker!!! How can you say they make less of an impact?? It’s just flat out dumb to say something like that. If you don’t have a good ILB/s, you’re D won’t be that great.
Everything seems less funny to me since I quit drinking.
by Brownie's Year on Apr 7, 2010 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d still take Berry over every player in this draft except Suh and maybe Bradford. Easily.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Absolutely. This data actually shows its safe to do so because even though they wash out sooner on average, their career expectancy more than covers their rookie contracts.
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