Talking Cleveland Browns With Football Outsiders
by Chris Pokorny on Jul 29, 2010 7:22 PM EDT
in General News
31 comments
I'm sure most of you have heard about Football Outsiders for their unique statistical breakdowns, providing the subtle details that might get overlooked on gameday. Their Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 is for sale now on Amazon.com. I've already read the Browns section and I was able to easily pick up on some interesting stats. I'm looking forward to catching up on a few of the other teams in the book to have some more insight on them when we play each other this year.
We asked Football Outsiders a few questions on the Cleveland Browns, including some tidbits about how the Browns in the secondary, what defensive coordinator Rob Ryan brought to the team last season, and what the best unit at inside linebacker would be. Our interview was conducted with Robert Weintraub, who wrote the chapter on the Browns in this year's Almanac.
Chris: "Opposing teams were able to pass the ball effectively last season. With Brandon McDonald leaving the starting lineup and Sheldon Brown taking his place, how will that change this season?"
Rob: "Statistically, Brown is an upgrade over McDonald, who wasn't all that terrible, surprisingly. We charted Brown as being even better than Wright, with slightly more Stops and Defeats (see the Almanac for precise definitions on the stats), and a better Success Rate. A CB quartet of Wright, Brown, McDonald and Haden makes the secondary a strength of the team overnight. Pass rush is still a crucial part of a team's ability to defend the pass, but strictly from a coverage standpoint, the Browns are in good shape."
Chris: "The Browns have a lot of linebackers that are considered versatile. From your statistical research and rankings, is there a "starting four" that would seem to work best, statistically?
Rob: "This is a tricky question given that several of the linebackers are going to be expected to play in multiple positions, but purely from a numbers standpoint, the best four on the roster are Bowens, Jackson, Roth, and Fujita, although the latter two are barely ahead of Trusnik. From a stats perspective, anyway, Gocong would appear to be the odd man out--but as we all know, much more goes into these decisions than just effectiveness from play to play."
Chris: "It is stated in your book that the Browns faced five or more pass rushers more often than any other offense in the league. Do you think that was a result of ineffective quarterbacks, a weak right side of the offensive line, poor receivers, or just a combination of everything?"
Rob: "Yeah, all of the above, plus facing the Steelers and Ravens for four games was a factor as well. As with most matters Cleveland-related, the overriding factor was likely the weak soup the Browns used for quarterbacks."
Chris: "The consensus is that QB Jake Delhomme has been awful since his playoff collapse against the Arizona Cardinals two years ago. Beyond his decision-making, is there anything statistically that stands out as having gone wrong last season compared to his better days?"
Rob: "Delhomme's accuracy is his main weakness. His completion % has always been at or close to 60%--never phenomenal, but passable (pun semi-intended). In 2009 it was 55.5%, which is not only awful but a particular no-no for a west coast offense QB. His DVOA plummeted from 18% to -19% as well, and at his age, it is unlikely to rebound."
Chris: "Another general opinion that has formed is that while Shaun Rogers is still a very good defensive lineman, the Browns didn't suffer too much of a dropoff once Ahtyba Rubin took over for him at nose tackle. Would the Browns be better off having Rubin at NT this year with Rogers moving to DE and having more freedom to rush the passer?"
Rob: "The Rogers-Rubin thing is quite simple--they are the two best players on the line, and thus need to be on the field as much as possible together. Since Rogers is a capable 3-4 end despite his bulk, and Rubin clearly will be a dependable NT, it's a no-brainer."
Chris: "The Browns recently added veteran receiver Bobby Engram to the roster. Can he help this team, or is he probably just a veteran presence for camp?"
Rob: "We didn't even bother writing up a profile for Engram for the book, and we did one for CFLer Weston Dressler, so that should answer your question."
Chris: "What did defensive coordinator Rob Ryan bring to the Browns' defense last season, especially toward the end of the season during the team's four-game winning streak?"
Rob: "Ryan did an excellent job of mixing and matching the newcomers he was forced to use with the few guys who weren't hurt, and even more so, he got them to play hard, reminding them that an NFL-future was a possible reward for a strong finish. With guys like Roth, Rubin, and Trusnik, it paid off. Ryan was given free rein to blitz often and creatively (the Browns were 6th in the NFL in sacks by linebackers, 5th in sacks by DBs), and it worked to disguise the missing pieces. Weak opposition also helped."
Chris: "Lastly, can you pick out one neat statistic or nugget about the Browns, or a new player on the team, that fans might find compelling?"
Rob: "One for each side of the ball--the Browns were dead last in the league in defending against 3-wide receiver sets, hence the secondary beef-up, which should prevent a repeat barring injury. On the other hand, Cleveland receivers led the league in dropped passes per attempt, even with Braylon Edwards exiled mid-season. And that position wasn't addressed this offseason to any great degree (barring Bobby Engram, of course)."
Thanks again to Football Outsiders for their time!
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Ugg. FO is straight garbage. DBN Heads> Robert Weintraub.
It’s not a lie if you believe it.
by Brownie's Year on Jul 30, 2010 12:20 AM EDT reply actions
While I respect Football Outsiders for their work in stats, there is usually far too much jumping to conclusions going on in their analysis. I think too often what a player’s job is within the scheme is overlooked when considering “effectiveness”, talent level, or impact on the game.
For instance, I like that phrases such as “but purely from a numbers standpoint” and “From a stats perspective, anyway” are used. But then he goes on to say “effectiveness from play to play.” as though better advanced stats equates more effective.
Football Outsiders have brought football stats a long way, and I am glad they are around to offer their perspective. But there is still a long way to go before they approach baseball or even basketball.
All that said, I agree with almost everything here. My only gripe is that I think a healthy Robaire Smith can be as effective as Rubin and that expecting some rebound from Delhomme is reasonable. Not a bounce back to his career averages, but a solid increase in his statistical production from the past season—say halfway between his career averages and last year.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I agree. I think Robaire smith is the forgotten man on the line and my honest opinion of Delhomme was about halfway between his career average and last year.
Stats can do a lot and I agree they have come a long way, but it is harder to Isolate a player’s true contribution in football compared to baseball or basketball which do focus more on individual play.
I did like some of the interesting stats that didn’t surprise me. We were terrible facing 3WR sets which I expected. I also thought it was interesting we were 5th in sacks by DBs and 6th by LBs. It just shows how Ryan is truly able to mix it up.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
I appreciate Male Beauty
I didn’t know we were that high in sacks by DBs, but I know Rob Ryan loves to send them. Glad we were at least kind of effective.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I think too often what a player’s job is within the scheme is overlooked when considering "effectiveness", talent level, or impact on the game.
This is why I don’t think football stats will ever approach baseball stats, it’s just too hard to incorporate things like this.
I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough.
by notthatnoise on Jul 30, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Isn’t football insider analyze every player for every play and assign a success rate depending on if they were effective or not effective?
I don’t think there is no jumping to conclusions at all with their stats. If anything, these sites like PFF and FO are the antithesis of people jumping to conclusions based on bias or not understanding a role.
This is because every player is judged on the same level as other players in the position and a players success isn’t judged on flashy stats like sack, sacks given up and yards. That’s why a player like Elvis Dumervile may be hyped by many because of his stats but these sites expose how he’s one of the worst in run defense.
While I respect you’re opinion, I’d rather have unbiased, unadulterated advanced analytical statistics over an opinion any day.
by The Licensed Pessimist on Jul 30, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d rather take the opinion of an informed scout or football mind who understands the complexity of roles and football talent over an unbiased stat.
"I spoil a lot of people with my play." -Lebron James
I’d rather take the opinion of an informed scout or football mind who understands the complexity of roles and football talent over an unbiased stat.
This post is kinda baseless. These unbiased football stat are based themselves off the understanding of roles and football talent. Who are you to say that these analyst, who do just as much research and analysis as an “informed scout or football mind” (who make huge mistakes themselves btw) don’t correctly apply the necessary diagnosis for these plays?
by The Licensed Pessimist on Jul 30, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
This is because every player is judged on the same level as other players in the position
This is the problem. just because someone is playing the same position, doesn’t mean they have the same role. for instance, in high school my job as a defensive end was to force the running back to bounce plays outside, not to contain, which is what most people assume all DEs do.
I’m sure FO tries to adjust for this type of thing, but the reality is they can’t possibly know what everybody’s job was on every play.
I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough.
by notthatnoise on Jul 30, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing is, Football Outsiders’ stats aren’t “unadulterated” or completely objective. Sometimes, a subjective judgement of how the player did on a particular play goes into the stat. At worst, FBO sets the definitions of the stats based on what they think makes a player/line/team/whatever they are measuring successful. A lot of the time, I see them as adding numbers to keep track of things that scouts would look at.
a players success isn’t judged on flashy stats like sack, sacks given up and yards. That’s why a player like Elvis Dumervile may be hyped by many because of his stats but these sites expose how he’s one of the worst in run defense.
This is really important, and something I love about advanced stats. They do a better job of filtering out all-flash, no substance players or guys who get overrated because of nothing they themselves did.
My problem is with this:
every player is judged on the same level as other players in the position
I belive FBO are smart enough to separate between things like the 3-4 and the 4-3 defenses, potentially recognizing that “DE” does not mean the same thing in both Ds.
The problem is that even separating players’ positions down to that level of specificity doesn’t mean you are making an apples to apples comparison. Generally speaking, teams like SD, GB and Dallas utilize 1-gapping 3-4 defenses. Meanwhile, teams like NE, pitt, and the Browns use 2-gapping 3-4s. But even that is an over-generalization because the 2-gapping teams use 1-gap principles on many plays.
Basically; even a “3-4 DE’s” responsibilities will vary from team to team and from play to play. Whether or not he did his job on a particular play can escape even the advanced stats.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
You’re side seems to be set on assumption of a process in which you don’t seem to know the details about. These statisticians know more about positional breakdowns than you do, and they base their stats on the success or failure of a particular assignment/play. Why do you think there are players like Aaron Smith and Rubin who don’t put up particularly well numbers, and play positions where they essentially have to hold a PoA, and yet end up at the top of the list?
A play is broken down to being either a success, or a failure, or somewhere in between. So if an assignment is to occupy 2 Olineman and allow a LB to make a play, it’s a success. If an assignment is to occupy one, and allow the LB to make a play, then it’s a success. That’s judged on the same plane as a player whose assignment was to shoot a gap, or fall back into coverage.
I think you’re essentially expecting it to have flaws because you want it to, and yet there is no evidence to support that claim. If these sites are accurate at diagnosing a play, then who is in particular? I honestly don’t know what you’re looking for.
by The Licensed Pessimist on Jul 30, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
So if an assignment is to occupy 2 Olineman and allow a LB to make a play, it’s a success. If an assignment is to occupy one, and allow the LB to make a play, then it’s a success. That’s judged on the same plane as a player whose assignment was to shoot a gap, or fall back into coverage.
I do not trust this to get into the stats. For one, no one watching from the outside can tell for sure on every single snap what every defender’s assignment was. No one. At best, you can be a genius and guess correctly 95+% of the time.
Second, I understand the statistics, insofar as their definitions have been explained on their website and previously on ESPN’s insider articles.
Third, I am seriously offended that you would accuse me of “wanting” these stats to have flaws and not providing evidence to support their flaws. Quite simply, the game of football is such that they are nowhere close to Baseball and can never be. Don’t believe me? Take it from them:
Football statistics can’t be analyzed in the same way baseball statistics are.
DVOA is still far away from the point where we can use it to represent the value of a player separate from the performance of his ten teammates that are also involved in each play.
The system is far from perfect. We don’t know when a guard is pulling and when a guard is blocking straight ahead. We know that some runners are just inherently better going up the middle, and some are better going side to side, and we can’t measure how much that impacts these numbers. We have no way of knowing the blocking contribution made by fullbacks, tight ends, or wide receivers.
This is an evidence-less claim:
These statisticians know more about positional breakdowns than you do
Not that I am quite sure what a “positional breakdown” is, I would have thought it would be something where someone breaks down a specific position on a team (say, CBs on the Browns) which has nothing to do with what I was talking about.
That’s judged on the same plane as a player whose assignment was to shoot a gap, or fall back into coverage.
Blocker occupation and penetration can’t be judged “on the same plane” because it is an apples to oranges comparison. They are two different jobs.
Another sentence you used that I don’t understand:
If these sites are accurate at diagnosing a play, then who is in particular?
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by rufio on Jul 30, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
One, you are vastly overestimating their ability to determine positional responsibility on any given play. On offense, they can probably pinpoint basic blocking schemes (Man or Zone), route combinations, and a general passing tree, but it is difficult to account for minor differentiations on plays. Offenses often adjust route depth, and even routes themselves, on sight. Individual blocking assignments can be adjusted off the base play, which will go unseen to the eye of anyone who is not intimately familiar with the play’s schematics
It is absolutely unbelievable that a small team of people, no matter how football educated they are, will be able to accurately decipher every individual play, and every individual responsibility within each play.
Two, over-specification of statistical analysis can be detrimental to useful conclusions being drawn from the data. Sabermetrical analysis works in baseball because of the nature of the game; it’s essentially a string of individual data points, all existing in a simplistic setting (pitcher vs. batter.) Football analysis is innately more context based, relying on both a varied definition of what "success" actually is, and an accurate way to measure it.
For this reason, I’m not a huge fan of the DVOA and DYAR statistics. They certainly work as a general comparative tool- that is, they work within the context they create. When reading the yearly Almanac, I enjoy the raw data that they provide much more than the statistics that they have created. Reading how often the Browns failed on converting on 3rd down with 5 yards or more to go is really helpful in pinpointing issues, and it’s meaningfully applicable to an actual football game.
Art Modell gives me a hard one
by gahnki on Jul 30, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
I’m a big fan of FO (though not keen on them becoming ESPN insiders) and it’s about time I bought their almanac, since my last preceded our 10~ season!
Although I agree on everything about “Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics” it’s a great bedside table book and the writing~ when not in full analysis mode~ is sometimes inspired. For example the humour in the essay on combined kickers/ punters in the Atlanta chapter of the 2006 annual is so re~readable.
Welcome Joe!
Go Seneca!
I blame the quarterbacks for many of the drops; Anderson was obviously a mess, but Quinn’s positional accuracy was very poor. While he may have technically hit the target, he often threw behind players, or at otherwise odd positions that affected their ability to catch the pass.
I believe one of the most underrated aspects of the great quarterbacks, especially Manning and Brees, is just how precise they are in getting the ball to a receiver in a catchable position.
Art Modell gives me a hard one
Hear, hear. Collapsable Quinn and Captain Knuckleball both pretty awful at delivering catchable balls.
Dawgs By Nature -- where Hitler, apparently, 'did some good things'.
I completely agree (a story Holmgren told about Bill Walsh stopping practice to tell Steve Young to throw the ball six inches further in front of Jerry Rice comes to mind) about needing to improve at putting the ball at certain spots on the receiver.
That said, I thought a lot of it was a lack of Chemistry. I saw several plays in Quinn’s second stint where he would try to put the ball on a receiver’s body away from the defense’s leverage, but the receivers either weren’t expecting the ball or weren’t expecting to have to move to get it.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Before I conducted the interview, I only read the team specific section on the Browns. Today, I started going through and reading the paragraphs provided for each player; it’s very informative. I’m going to try to read every player’s biography in the NFL (offensively) to see if it gives me any sort of an edge for fantasy leagues.
Also, the stats section in the appendices is nice. I’m not supposed to give too many stats away, but it was neat seeing Jason Trusnik being one of the league’s top 20 defenders in terms of not allowing offensive players to break tackles, while David Bowens was in the bottom 20 defenders (both categories are in terms of percentages).
Dawgs By Nature - Covering the Cleveland Browns on SB Nation.
If I remember correctly from an ESPN insider article, Elam was one of the better tackling DBs last year in terms of % of tackles broken.
Also, this is why I believe David Bowens is getting too old:
…now that’s just embarrassing.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by rufio on Jul 30, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Rolando McClain of all people.
Facepalm.
I can't believe Cribbs was considered the second best athlete in Cleveland.
LBJ. Lying. Backstabbing. Jackass.
by SpecialBrownie on Jul 30, 2010 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Tomato, Tomahto.
I can't believe Cribbs was considered the second best athlete in Cleveland.
LBJ. Lying. Backstabbing. Jackass.
by SpecialBrownie on Aug 1, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
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