Fantasy Football: Does Draft Position Matter?

by Chris Pokorny on Aug 9, 2010 12:12 PM EDT in General News

Looking at a few of the posts in a recent fantasy football post here on Dawgs By Nature, I noticed the topic of draft position in a snake draft come up.

If you've never heard of a snake draft, imagine there are four teams in the league. This is how the draft order would be set up:

Round 1: Team 1, Team 2, Team 3, Team 4
Round 2: Team 4, Team 3, Team 2, Team 1

The patten continues after that, with every odd numbered round being the same order as Round 1, and every even numbered round being the same as Round 2. Imagine a similar concept in the common 10- or 12-man leagues. If you're the first pick of the draft, you won't be picking again for awhile -- near the 20th overall pick. If it's a 12-man league and you have the last pick, you're upset that you missed out on the Top 11 projected players, but you also get back-to-back picks.

Depending on your draft position, you have to be extra-careful in terms of which players you select. With the first overall pick, it's hard to defend drafting a quarterback. Since running backs always go off the board first, being stuck with a quarterback and having to wait that long means that you'll have missed out on even the half-way decent running backs before you've even drafted your first one. Likewise, the final draft position in round one, which presents a back-to-back opportunity, might offer you a crack at a decent running back and either a top receiver or top quarterback.

2 years ago, I had the No. 11 and No. 14 picks in a 12-man league. I took receivers with both picks, which left me a bit depleted with respect to the running back position. With that said, I ended up making two great picks at No. 35 (Michael Turner) and No. 62 (LenDale White) for that season, which made up for my unconventional selections.

Last year, I had the No. 9 and No. 16 picks in a 12-man league. I took a receiver and a quarterback with those picks, again leaving myself vulnerable to not having a decent running back. I didn't have as much luck drafting backs late as I did two years ago, as I took backs with No. 33 (Joseph Addai) and No. 57 (Larry Johnson). Both were either injured often or tanked. I scrambled for a good running back every week, and luckily fell into Jamaal Charles late in the year.

Both seasons, I finished with the first seed before losing in the playoffs. It's been awhile since I have had a high draft choice, and quite frankly I don't know if I'd be comfortable with it. I'm always concerned that an early running back I draft might be a "bust" that season.

Feel free to share your experience and/or research regarding this topic in the comments section below!

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Agree completely with your strategy. If you are late in first round, far better off getting a stud at another position than to get the 11th rated RB. But if I get shutout early for RB – will flood rounds 3-7 with RBs. Will try to get several first and second round draftpicks RBs. Usually one develops nicely, and one is a home run every year.

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by realmccoy on Aug 9, 2010 12:39 PM EDT reply actions

Last Year: I had the No. 4 and No. 13 picks in an 8-man money league. This was what I thought to be one of my ideal situations. I decided to play it the way I usually do with a high draft position, and go with 2 running backs. I chose Jones-Drew with #4 and stole Chris Johnson at #13. Considering our league also had a flex which would allow for 3 backs, I even decided to pick Marion Barber with #20. Although this left me extremely thin at WR (which I would later regret, sort of). I also snuck in Tony Romo somewhere in the 5th round. Before the season started, I managed to work out a trade with one of the weaker running teams, giving up Barber for Greg Jennings (#26).

The biggest thing that season, was pulling Ray Rice and Miles Austin from free agency. After that was done it was basically over. I finished with the No. 1 seed, won a close victory in the first round, then won the championship game by 33 points.

As you might have guessed, I’m still a firm believer in RBs first in the top 7ish of a draft, and I still prefer to pick in the top 4. But, I live by free agency fleecing.

by Simmsinns on Aug 9, 2010 1:28 PM EDT reply actions

Another factor this brings up is the waiver wire rule in some leagues. For example, the CBS DBN League will give the highest waiver priority to start the season to the team that picks last in round one. If you pick first, you might lose out on a few players you wanted to claim.

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by Chris Pokorny on Aug 9, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, the waiver wire definitely comes into play when you have several people that keep up daily. Yahoo! has it based on where the teams are in the standings each week, the worst teams having the highest priority. Generally though, the worst teams are the ones least likely to make a good free agency pick up.

by Simmsinns on Aug 9, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I was near the bottom for part of one season though I was very active with the waiver wire. my internet connection crashed during the draft so I ended up with a very bad draft. for the first half of the season, I was doing a lot of playing matchups, then I picked up a few guys who got hot and rolled with them.

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by bross09 on Aug 9, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Completely agree with the free agency part. I picked up Favre pretty early on from FA in my league. I already had Peyton Manning, but figured why not. Between the two I could pretty much assume either would generate significant amounts of points for me.

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by Kimble_79 on Aug 9, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

You draft for the first four weeks of the season. You rarely win a league with a draft, but with the moves you make during the season by way of trade and waiver wire. Last year I had the first pick in a 10 team money league. I picked Dree Brees and ended up beig thin at RB because I took Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. But then I picked up Miles Austin off waivers and traded for Chris Johnson and MJD after they had down weeks (using White and Johnson as trade bait) and went on to win my league, helped by the addition of Jerome Harrison late in the season. How you draft is important but how you make decisions during the season wins leagues.

by Onyx Lightning on Aug 9, 2010 1:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

I don’t have the info in front of me, but I read somewhere that the best three positions to have are 1st, 2nd, and last.

I just wrapped up my other leagues draft yesterday and I had the 9th pick in a ten man draft. I love having picks back to back. Only way you get screwed is if a run on a position happens right after you make your second pick.

by Bernie19Kosar on Aug 9, 2010 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

I liked having back to back picks, too.

But this problem is…

Only way you get screwed is if a run on a position happens right after you make your second pick.

That happened to me a few times.

by emily522 on Aug 9, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

All you have to do is pay attention to ADP. That is average draft position.

Plus, TE is the only position I ever really worried about getting shut out of. But it seems that the NFL has so many more good TE’s than in seasons past. If you miss out on Dallas Clark, Gates and Davis, wait four more rounds and pick up a Finley, Daniels or K2 later on.

by Bernie19Kosar on Aug 9, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d be hesitant about K2, but I see a lot of folks calling for Finley as a sleeper. Personally, I like Jason Witten. I’ve had him on my team every year since 2007. He’s reliable and affordable.

by Simmsinns on Aug 10, 2010 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions

just replied in the original thread, but reposting here:

finally back in the office, and i thought I had bookmarked the article talking about the success of various fantasy football draft positions, but alas, I don’t. A good 10-minute google search didn’t come up with the result either, as I can’t even remember what website it was on.

But from memory, the research studied fantasy football seasons with 10 and 12-team leagues from either ‘05 or ’06 through ’09 (where the data set is from, I don’t know… I’d like to think if it was a Football Outsiders piece, it was based on ESPN leagues). In a 12-team league, the winning teams came from #1, #2, #12, #3, and #11, in that order. The benefit of drafting last decreases somewhat significantly when playing in a 10-team league (I think #10 fell behind #3, and #4 was the 5th most successful).

I’ll continue to keep an eye open for the study, as it was pretty informative. nothing that could be used for fantasy football purposes, but just an interesting read (and point of debate for using an auction instead of a straight draft).

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by rolub on Aug 10, 2010 1:20 PM EDT reply actions