Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers - Positional Breakdown

by Chris Pokorny on Oct 29, 2011 9:57 PM EDT

The match-up this week seems like a mirror image of what the Oakland Raiders brought to the table against Cleveland two weeks ago, with one big difference: the 49ers are very good at defending the run. Record-wise, this will be the Browns' toughest test this season. Does that mean things will be one-sided? Find out after the jump...

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Pos	Adv	Reason
QB		Alex Smith is on pace to have the best season of his career. His accuracy is up and his interception rate is down, and I never that the former first overall pick would get seven seasons to produce, but it's finally coming together for him. The 49ers offense isn't built to thrive on the passing game though -- Smith averages just 181 yards passing per game. I still have my doubts as to whether he can rally this team once they get behind. Out of all the games the Browns have played this season, this will be the most important one when it comes to accuracy for Colt McCoy. I'm thinking that he'll need to complete at least 65% of his passes for Cleveland to have a chance. One asset that has been somewhat missing from McCoy's game this year is his willingness to tuck the ball and run. It worked out well against the Seahawks last week, and with the pressure the 49ers bring, McCoy may have some opportunities to pick up a few tough yards himself.
RB		Frank Gore is an absolute beast, and I hope T.J. Ward is prepared to come up and help tackle this guy. Like many running backs though, the big key is to prevent Gore from getting that one big run. The first three weeks of the season, Gore averaged about 2.5 yards per carry with a long run of 16 yards. The past three weeks, Gore is averaging 7.86 yards per carry, with assists from a 55-yard run and a 40-yard run. With how good of a defense the 49ers have, those big runs by Gore are demoralizing. The thing that stuns me about Gore is how few receptions he is getting this year. He averaged 40+ yards receiving last year, but is only averaging 11+ yards receiving this year. Personal prediction, and you can call this a 'gut feeling' -- I think Peyton Hillis will be active against the 49ers, but either won't play at all or will only see work if an injury takes place. Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya will probably have a similar reps-ratio that they did last week. I think it'd be wise of the Browns to throw quick passes to the running backs in the flat. Even if they only lead to 3-4 yard gains, those can act as substitutes from what I project to be a less effective run game.
WR		Braylon Edwards has nothing to do with this ranking. In fact, if he plays (he is a game-time decision), I'd say the 49ers' receiver crew would be taking a hit. Right now, they have several receivers stepping up, and they don't need a guy like Edwards dropping a couple of passes. Vernon Davis could present a few matchup problems if someone like Scott Fujita has to cover him. Joshua Cribbs will move into the starting lineup again with Mohamed Massaquoi out. Tight end Benjamin Watson should get the start despite suffering a concussion last week. Wide receiver Carlton Mitchell should make his season-debut at receiver, and hopefully that means he'll record his first career reception in a regular season game.
OL		The Browns will have Shawn Lauvao back at right guard this week, even though I was very interested in seeing John Greco get some action there this week. The 49ers have the advantage here because their line is good in the power run game. If Cleveland gets some key defensive stops on early downs though, I think right tackle Anthony Davis could have some trouble.
DL		This is going to be a great match-up -- 49ers right defensive end Justin Smith going up against left tackle Joe Thomas. Smith has six sacks this year, and according to the Plain Dealer, he has 32 pressures this season. On top of that, rookie Aldon Smith comes in during passing situations and has added 5.5 sacks this year. This category could definitely go in favor of the 49ers, but I decided to make it even because of the different schemes played (3-4 vs. 4-3) and the fact that the Browns' front four has not been a liability.
LB		Patrick Willis is one of best linebackers in the NFL, and I don't think anyone will question that. On top of that, second-year man NaVorro Bowman is a solid linebacker playing next to him. This unit isn't built on creating sacks, but they are fierce when it comes to defending the run and making sure running backs don't break any tackles. For the Browns, I liked what I saw last week from Kaluka Maiava, but veteran Scott Fujita will return to the starting lineup.
DB		We saw the difference Joe Haden made in the starting lineup last week, and if he does end up guarding Braylon Edwards, it'd be nice to see another lockdown performance. It'd also be nice to see Haden shush a few of the 49ers fans who have been questioning his legitimacy. The greater confidence I have in the Browns' secondary stems from some slightly improved play by T.J. Ward, and some great coverage by nickel back Dimitri Patterson. It would be unfair to call the 49ers' secondary "weak" or anything of that nature, but I'd prefer Cleveland's group of players to their group of players.
ST		It's going to be a Brad Seely reunion, but I don't think he'll have any particular insights as to what the Browns' tendencies are since there are a lot of new players on special teams in Cleveland. As much as I liked Blake Costanzo in Cleveland, he is the enemy now and I'd love to see Joshua Cribbs truck over him. The 49ers have a great unit under Seely though, with Ted Ginn Jr. returning kicks, veteran David Akers kicking field goals, and punter Andy Lee getting impressive distance on his punts.

And this...this is where I sound crazy. Bye week teams are 3-9 this season, and while the 49ers are an efficient offense, they typically aren't a team that is going to jump out to a big lead. I think that plays to the strengths of Cleveland's defense, and I really think Cleveland's offense was a couple of steps away last week from putting a lot more points on the board (more passes to the running backs, among other things). I'll use my "reach" card this week and pick the Browns in a tight one.

FINAL PREDICTION: Cleveland Browns 17, San Francisco 49ers 16
CHRIS' OVERALL NFL PREDICTIONS RECORD: 70-33
CHRIS' RECORD AT PICKING BROWNS GAMES: 4-2

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Comments

Harbaugh doing a helluva job. Work with Alex Smith unbelievable.

Change isn't good or bad it just "is". Don Draper of Madmen

by realmccoy on Oct 29, 2011 10:20 PM EDT reply actions

I hate how our special teams used to be feared by every NFL team and now it’s our biggest liability. I think we’ll see how far we’ve fallen tomorrow. I really hope those changes they made were significant after how abysmal we’ve been the last two weeks.

Even Doug Dieken admits Joe Thomas is the real #73

by Doc's Kid on Oct 29, 2011 10:27 PM EDT reply actions

ST is our biggest liability? Our offense feels sleighted.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
— Winston S. Churchill

by JustBob on Oct 29, 2011 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Our offense isn’t scoring points for the other team.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Oct 30, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Exactly. We gave up 2 TDs against Oakland and Seattle should have had another. 3 TDs is horrible on the season and we’ve done it in two weeks. The offense isn’t great, but they aren’t turning the ball over and giving up TDs with the exception of the Titans game. That game was already over though. Remember, Delhomme was a pick 6 machine last year.

Even Doug Dieken admits Joe Thomas is the real #73

by Doc's Kid on Oct 30, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

3 TDs is at least bad on the season. through 2 games, even 2 TDs is just horrible

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by bross09 on Oct 30, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

You could have saved a few keystrokes if you had stopped after “points.”

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
— Winston S. Churchill

by JustBob on Oct 30, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I started Ted Ginn Jr. in my fantasy league- I feel like that is a pretty safe bet going up against our special teams.

by shep615 on Oct 29, 2011 10:51 PM EDT reply actions

Fujita needs to relax and sit on the bench. I probably could outrun him there.

by Johnnypronto on Oct 29, 2011 11:09 PM EDT reply actions

I wonder if the “Luck” tanking teams decide to quit the oddessy. While Andrew is a very solid pro-prospect, so is Barkley and several other kids that will becoming to the NFL in the next year. The NFL takes alot of learning and growing. Manning had the pedigree. Then we have guys like Rogers(and especially Brady) who were sorta pushed down and spit on.

Getting a franchise QB takes “Luck”(no pun intended).

by Johnnypronto on Oct 29, 2011 11:24 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t think any teams are tanking on purpose.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Oct 30, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions

I won’t be surprised if we see Miami playing some 2nd stringers down the stretch for no apparent reason (i.e. “we just want to take a look at a couple of these kids, blah blah…”).

Go, I say go away boy, you bother me.

by burntorangeandbrown on Oct 30, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

The coaches won’t do that, they’d like to keep their jobs.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Oct 30, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

miami was winning for a while against the Giants and they probably have the biggest desire/need for Luck out of the bad teams

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by bross09 on Oct 30, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Browns winning smh

Also Justin Smith will be going up against your LG Aldon Smith will be going up against Thomas.

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When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.

by manraj7 on Oct 30, 2011 1:02 AM EDT reply actions

Joe Thomas shuts down both because he is Joe Thomas

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by bross09 on Oct 30, 2011 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions

You silly

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When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.

by manraj7 on Oct 30, 2011 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions

It’s going to be a long, long day for Jason Pinkston.

My glass is always half full, b*tch

by The Licensed Optimist on Oct 30, 2011 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions

hopefully :)

Follow @manraj76
When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.

by manraj7 on Oct 30, 2011 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions

You do realize that depending on the protections we use that Thomas could go up against either, right?

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Oct 30, 2011 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions

So a TE on Aldon Smith?

He has longer arms than most OT. No way a TE will put a hand on him.

Follow @manraj76
When Jim Harbaugh says "more is more" I think he is trying to say Moore is more.

by manraj7 on Oct 30, 2011 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Long arms aren’t actually all that important.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Oct 30, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

I hope they are, this guy was seen in Berea this week…

Secret Weapon.

by Bernie19Kosar on Oct 30, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Link not working.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Oct 30, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm. Worked for me.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
— Winston S. Churchill

by JustBob on Oct 30, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

You’re right, it’s out of the realm of possibility. I did admit that it was my reach pick for the season.

Dawgs By Nature - Covering the Cleveland Browns on SB Nation.

by Chris Pokorny on Oct 30, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

not out of the realm of possibility, but I don’t think its probable.

Its not like calling an 0-6 Rams team beating the Saints…oh wait…

I forgot, this is football.

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by bross09 on Oct 30, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I think its a stretch to predict a win (or just optimistic) but it’s not ridiculous.

Stat of the Day: The 49ers are 27th in 3rd down % and the Browns are top 10 in 3rd down D. The 49ers are one of the better teams at limiting 3rd downs (getting first downs on two downs).

The Browns have a chance if they can load up the box against Gore and Patterson and Brown at least hold their own, the Browns have a chance. The 49ers offense seems to stagnate on 3rd down, though the Browns aren’t great at forcing 3rd downs.

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by bross09 on Oct 30, 2011 1:35 AM EDT reply actions

McCoy is better than Alex Smith.

My dog is a badass. His name is Kosar.
Why does the internet have political prisoners?

by Brownie's Year on Oct 30, 2011 2:58 AM EDT reply actions

I would say they’re about equal.

My glass is always half full, b*tch

by The Licensed Optimist on Oct 30, 2011 4:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Are you talking about the 2010 or 2011 editions?

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
— Winston S. Churchill

by JustBob on Oct 30, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions

McCoy isn’t performing better than Smith

by The Licensed Pessimist on Oct 30, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Browns winning but out played at every position.. You know what, I’m with you.

With or Without the H

by johnf34 on Oct 30, 2011 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

The sum of the parts is less than the whole? Hmmmm….

Brownsyup

by Brownsyup on Oct 30, 2011 10:30 AM EDT reply actions

I noticed Grossi is predicting a “big upset” for the Browns (not by a big margin).
My initial thought was “well, that’s it, we’re going to get blown out for sure now”.

Go, I say go away boy, you bother me.

by burntorangeandbrown on Oct 30, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions

We’re screwed.

Even Doug Dieken admits Joe Thomas is the real #73

by Doc's Kid on Oct 30, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Yup.

2010 Official DBN League Fantasy Football Champion

by TheDriveStillHurts on Oct 30, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ve seen this type of scenario before, I just have a feeling that one of those any given Sunday’s will come into play today.

Dawgs By Nature - Covering the Cleveland Browns on SB Nation.

by Chris Pokorny on Oct 30, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

The 49ers OL is not that good if you have seen them play. Im looking at pass protection. Smith has done a good job getting the ball out early and picking up his blitz reads (hmm the same things mccoy struggles mightily with…) But when you arent blitzing Smith has issues. I would leave 7 in the box and Ward/FS closer to the line to get any runs outside. Im confident that Haden shuts down whoever hes on (I think itll be Crabtree) and Brown can lock down the #2 guy from making big plays. Be physical with Davis and I think we have a D that can stop this running game.

by -bobby- on Oct 30, 2011 1:08 PM EDT reply actions

I would say SF has the advantage on the DL and even on DB's.

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by mikeinsp on Oct 30, 2011 1:39 PM EDT reply actions

Your a joke and dont know Joe Haden then.

by -bobby- on Oct 30, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Totally.

That’s why I said Haden is just terrible.

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"By now if u don't believe the Niners are for real ur probably not that good at what u do..." - Donte Whitner

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by mikeinsp on Oct 30, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I thinks it's even on DB's because

Rogers has been shut things down this year. Brown and Culliver have also done a pretty solid job.

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by mikeinsp on Oct 30, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Haden has been one of the best shutdown CBs in the league and Patterson has been great in the slot and Sheldon Brown is decent at times. If you take out Haden and Rogers, I’d say they are even, but Haden is doing better.

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by bross09 on Oct 30, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions