Fantasy Football 2011 Strategy - Cleveland Browns
Last year, I said that it was not worth drafting running back Peyton Hillis in fantasy football because it appeared it would be behind Jerome Harrison and Montario Hardesty on the team's depth chart. Sure enough, Hillis went on to become the 10th most productive player in all of fantasy football.
With fans across the country getting ready for their fantasy football drafts, it's time to take a look at the value of drafting players who are on the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland fans are bound to be more inclined to draft someone from the Browns, but who is actually worth a roster spot?
We're going to go position-by-position here, with players appearing in red being the ones to stay away from, and the players appearing in green being the ones I recommend drafting.
- QB Colt McCoy - The West Coast Offense might sound friendly for quarterbacks and I am confident in what McCoy can bring to the table in his second season, but there are much better proven fantasy options out there. McCoy threw for 6 touchdowns and 9 interceptions last year. You need multi-touchdown games from fantasy quarterbacks consistently, and that's not something that is going to be expected of him. He offers the upside of scrambling for some yards, but it is not enough yardage to take a flier on him. 14% of Yahoo leagues currently own him, so chances are you'll get him after the draft if desired.
- RB Peyton Hillis - I'm not quite sure why Hillis is ranked so low (25th overall, and 15th among running backs), except for the belief that our offense may take a step back given the fact that there has been less time to prepare for a new offense. If he stays healthy, Hillis could be more productive than he was last season. He is a drafter's best friend -- he runs the ball very well wherever he is on the field, and he catches the ball better than most of the team's receivers. Personally, I think he's worth a first-round pick, but Yahoo has him going close to the end of round two.
- RB Montario Hardesty - Not only is there uncertainty on whether this guy can stay healthy, we don't know how many reps he will receive. There's a chance he might not be the third-down back, but rather the guy who runs the ball when Hillis needs a breather. He will fulfill an important role, but not as a fantasy back.
- RB Brandon Jackson - He'll be a third-down and blocking back at best. Even when he started in Green Bay, he was never a fantasy threat.
- WR Mohamed Massaquoi - The team's No. 1 receiver had 483 yards and 2 touchdowns in his sophomore season last year. If you end up drafting him or putting him in your starting lineup, I'd certainly question the move.
- WR Brian Robiskie - I don't recommend taking any of the Browns' receivers, but if you really want to stash someone on your bench, it should be Robiskie. While he is not a burner, he seemed to show some more chemistry with McCoy toward the end of the 2010 campaign and is getting the most reps so far in training camp. He had 310 yards and 3 touchdowns last year.
- WR Greg Little - Massaquoi and Robiskie have had two years to show off if they are fantasy threats, and they have not delivered. The whole story behind Little (being a year off, having good size, drafted in the second round) makes him the biggest sleeper candidate on the team, but you'd still be taking a chance when we don't even know if he'll be in the starting lineup or not.
- WR Joshua Cribbs - The team might reduce his Wildcat role, and maybe even his role as a receiver. While he'll be out to prove he's still a special teams stud, he'll need something more than that to be a regular fantasy contributor.
- TE Ben Watson - He quietly gained 763 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, but I'm guessing that will end up being his most productive season as a member of the Browns. He'll still be the starter and was McCoy's favorite overall receiver last year, but the roles of the two backup tight ends are projected to increase. I think he's still worth a last-round pick if you don't feel like investing in a top-tier tight end early.
- TE Evan Moore - I don't think the front office would've tendered him if they didn't like him. Similar to Jayme Mitchell, I get the feeling that they didn't understand why Moore didn't receive more reps last year. He'll get some big yardage for a second tight end, but second tight ends don't belong on your roster.
- TE Jordan Cameron - Unless the Browns put Cameron in an Aaron Hernandez type of role in his rookie season, he shouldn't be a fantasy threat.
- K Phil Dawson - Picking the right kicker can be a big advantage, but the leading one usually changes year by year. If you don't care about monitoring kicker productivity, there's nothing wrong with making Dawson your token member of the Browns.
- DEF/ST Cleveland - Defensively, it's hard to value Cleveland's defense because there is a lot of uncertainty with the switch to the 4-3 defense. The value in taking them? They could still have a good special teams unit if Joshua Cribbs is healthy again. If you bank on their special teams helping year, any chance of the defense being surprisingly good is a bonus. They're still off my radar for the most part, but their Week 1 match against Cincinnati is attractive.
If you have any differing opinions, feel free to sound off!
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Phil Dawson is always my kicker regardless of league.
Smile big, hug bigger. Talk big, act bigger. Stop judging do something, shut the fck up do something.
by pwndabear on Aug 2, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 8 recs
too bad i can’t rec this a million more times….
Yvan Eht Nioj.
by Brownsbacker488 on Aug 2, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I generally have Dawson as my K as well unless someone snatches him up before me.
(If all the nachos are stuck together, it only counts as one nacho.)
by North Coast Flea on Aug 2, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m in this camp for one reason: I think Hardesty is going to be a much bigger part of this offense than people think.
I really think our backfield is going to be like Dallas last season. Three RB’s splitting time.
by Bernie19Kosar on Aug 2, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Last season there was a confluence of events that led to an abnormally high number of touches for Hillis. He was a much larger percentage of his team’s total offense than any one player usually would be. From a fantasy perspective, it’s not that Hillis is any less talented than he was last year, but the Browns offense will likely have a more balanced attack this year. If you believe that Hillis will have an average RB1 workload this season, and that Cleveland’s total offense will be in the lower third of all teams this season, then you will understand why he’s considered a second round pick at best.
I tend to think Ben Watson could surprise us as being a good choice this year… but I think only a couple games will allow us to tell. And in that respect, Watson will definitely be available for us Browns fans’ choosing.
Few things.
1. Hi, welcome to DBN. You seem to have been here a while but never posted.
2. The woman in your avatar is wearing a JT jersey. That is awesome considering most women go for the hunk jerseys, ala BQ.
3. You have awesome grammar. That’s good news on this board.
Classic mode button! =D
by SpecialBrownie on Aug 2, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you implying BQ is more attractive than JT?
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Aug 2, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
I participate in Auction drafts. Right now, the tier 1 fantasy backs are projecting to go for around $60 dollars. These Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, and Chris Johnson. In the mock auctions I have been doing, Hillis is usually going for between $25-$30. No other Browns player is going for more than a dollar or two. Hardesty is actually going for $2 or $3 in some drafts based strictly on being Peyton’s handcuff.
The person who doesn't scatter the morning dew will not comb gray hairs"- HST
Living in Northern Ohio and playing since 1995 there are really 2 strategies with Browns and Steeler’s players. 1) Ignore them- local fans will snatch them up way too early. or 2) snatch one early and trade them to those local fans.
If one slides, go for it. But they never do, which proves that they get taken way too early.
The snozberries taste like snozberries!
Hillis:
I think Hillis is rated so low because they expect him to share carries with Hardesty nearly 50-50.
But remember, the fantasy pundits don’t actually watch every game of a particular player though, and their also far from “NFL insiders” with connections to the scoop.
I think it’s wrong to assume the 50-50 split, especially given Hardesty’s injury troubles.
That said, I expect Hillis to be over valued by Browns fans, in that he will definitely go top 10 in most drafts consisting of mostly loyal Browns fans. At the same time, nationally he’ll be undervalued by the ranking slave type of fantasy owners that see him at around 20ish.
Dawson:
I do like reading about all the love for Dawson, but I actually have never had him as my fantasy kicker. I’m the kind of fantasy owner that leaves no love lost, but also all my homerism at the door, in it to win. Combine that with the fact that my fantasy kicker roster slot is like a revolving door. If I miss the run on kickers in the draft to grab a potential sleeper instead, I’ve got no problem playing it week-to-week.
"I want my unwarranted optimism back." -Dilbert
I think part of it is a fear on how he performed late in the year. I think Hardesty will get carries though. New coach and offense doesn’t guarantee as high level of performance. He’s not a sure thing.
My two leagues are made up of a Browns fans league and a all local one, so I doubt I’ll have him on any of my teams. Somebody will want him more than me.
I guess there's only one thing left to do.....win the whole ******* thing. - Major League
I’ve never really followed fantasy football. Frankly, I was surprised to hear that it was G-rated given the moniker it goes by, but that’s not important.
I was wondering if the fantasy rankings take into account fumbles. That’s something I’d really like to see Hillis get a handle on this year, and I was thinking that it might have something to do with the ranking that Chris noted.
"... you slay the chicken and you crack the egg ..." - Moon
In most fantasy formats a fumble is worth negative 2 or 3 points. A touchdown is almost always six and it is 0.1 points per rushing yard. So 100 yards rushing is worth 10 points. So you could have a monster day pretty much negated by two fumbles. 100 yards and a touchdown, which would be a very useful 16 points becomes a very mediocre 10 points, which Hillis was at risk for last year.
The person who doesn't scatter the morning dew will not comb gray hairs"- HST
I hope Hillis is productive…but Im not going to draft him unless he falls way, waaay low. To be honest I avoid browns players like the plague.
Just too many uncertainties with hillis this y earhardesty as an unknown quantity, a west coast offense, the fact that teams are going to commit to shutting him down as the browns only real weapon, and the injury possibility…not to mention the fact that as much as he was a beast last year…who knows…he could turn out to be Reuben Droughns 2.0.
I think there might be quite a long list of better late round sleeper potential. However, if Little has a great preseason, his value could rise quickly.
Hardesty I don’t see being worth a fantasy roster spot. Obviously, there is the Hillis factor, but also the guy is injury prone.
"I want my unwarranted optimism back." -Dilbert

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