The Cleveland Browns' Offense: Tendencies and Rufio's Notes
When work hasn't gotten in the way this week, I've been re-watching the Cleveland Browns' game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Normally when I look to chart plays I am scratching plays into scraps of paper and notebooks, but I decided to take a different approach this week and I am hoping I can keep doing it throughout the season. I have created a spreadsheet to keep track of down and distance, our personnel groupings, formations, a quick read of the defense, success of our offense (or lack thereof), and general notes on the plays.
I've uploaded the spreadsheet here if any of you want to look at what I've recorded, and I have just a bit of analysis after the jump.
On the spreadsheet:
- I was re-watching the game via my (medium-speed) internet connection and I am fairly sure I missed Moore in the game at least once. I may have missed Norwood too. It's probably best to consider the small sample size of plays and my (admittedly present) margin of error when making any conclusions from this data.
- I've never performed NFL-playbook-level rote memorization, and the football vocabulary I have is from widely varying systems. I've tried to describe the terminology I've used in the second tab but it is cobbled together from several systems/playbooks.
- I based "success" loosely on Football Outsiders' definition. I looked for plays to gain 4 or more yards on 1st or 2nd down between the 20 yard lines, to get a 1st down on any down, or to get into the endzone.
On personnel:
- We substituted WRs largely in groups. Robiskie and Massaquoi seemed to play together, while Cribbs and Little came into the game at the same time. Little also played the role of the 3rd receiver in 3WR sets, meaning he played the most snaps out of any WR.
- Evan Moore was almost exclusively split out wide as a receiver when he was on the field. As PFF noticed, we threw it to him often when he was in the game.
- We alternated Artis Hicks and Oniel Cousins at RT on every other series. Both got dominated in pass protection at least once. I saw Hicks get beaten badly at least twice, with one of those times coming at the end of the game when we had to pass the ball.
- Shurmur got RB Montario Hardesty a decent amount of snaps. I loved the use of Hillis and Hardesty on the field at the same time, as well as on play where we motioned Hardesty into the slot.
- If we can get creative with versatile players such as Hillis, Hardesty, Ben Watson and Evan Moore, we can create favorable matchups in the passing game. But we can only do this if we also constrain the defense with the threat of the run.
- RG Jason Pinkston looked able to play the part physically. But there were at least two times he made rookie mistakes that hurt the rest of the line and the offense. One was in pass pro (helping out Joe Thomas when he should have stayed inside) and one was in the running game (leaking up to the 2nd level too soon on a zone run).
On shooting ourselves in the foot:
- We saw a glimpse of the offense I think we can be in the 2nd-3rd quarters. But in the first quarter, we were horrendous. A stat line from the CBS broadcast said it all: "McCoy 1st qtr: 15 yards, 0 TD, 2nd quarter 103 yards, 2TD"
- One big reason for that first quarter was the situations we put ourselves in with penalties. Even with success here and there, you are never going to be able to sustain drives if you are in 3rd and long. Our first two 3rd down plays were 3rd and 16 and 3rd and 24.
- Our first success on 3rd down came on a 3rd and 7. It was our fourth 3rd down play of the game, with our third 3rd down play being another 3rd and 7.
- Our 3rd down woes continued in the fourth quarter, where we failed on 3rd and 17, 15, 10, and 7. We succeeded on 3rd and 3 as well as 3rd and 7.
- We had several (at least two) plays where either Owen Maceric or Peyton HIllis went the wrong way on running plays. Luckily, only one of these plays went for negative yardage.
- We simply have to reduce the amount of running plays that go for <2 yards. If we can count on our running game to consistently get us yardage--even minimal yardage--we can put ourselves in better 3rd down situations.
On strategy in general:
- I noticed this tendency with Shurmur in St. Louis, and it continues here: he will run one play and then run either the same exact play or a different look off of that original play on the very next down. An obvious example of this would be a run and then a play action pass off of that run on the next down. We will also run pass concepts that look like one another back to back.
- I am openly an Owen Maceric defender. But he had one pretty awesome block down near the goal line. We were also running him deep repeatedly on a seam route after a lead draw play action fake. This was in large part to keep defenders in the middle of the field away from our WRs, but I expect us to try to hit him deep down the middle at some point.
- When we are in singleback ("Ace") formations, our favorite run is the power O play. Look for a guard pulling to the playside of the run.
- Cincinnati played Cover-5 (Cover 2 man under) very sparingly against us. The one time I noticed them playing 2 deep man under before our 2 minute drill, Colt McCoy was able to escape the pocket and scramble for a big 1st down. If he is able to limit opposing defenses' use of this defense with his legs that will be a big plus.
- Cincinnati played a lot of MoFC (single high safety) coverages against us, often in Cover 1 Robber with tight man coverage underneath. They were trying to flood the underneath areas with 6 defenders (5 in man + 1 "robber" in zone) and I expect this trend to continue until we prove we can shake that tight man coverage for chunk plays through the air or burn aggressive defenders with play action more consistently.
That's all I have for now. Even if you don't want to try to decode my spreadsheet I hope you enjoyed my observations.
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Solid work here indeed. Thanks Ruf.
In theory there is no difference between theory and practice.
In practice there is. -- Yogi Berra
by JustPlainBrowns on Sep 16, 2011 9:17 AM EDT reply actions
Great breakdown as usual Ruf. Did you happen to notice which WR set was in for the majority of our run plays? I’m wondering why they decided to pair MoMass, coming of injury, with Robo, our worst playmaker, together. My only thought was maybe we ran the ball more with that group. Any insight?
I think it had to do more with who was familiar together and who knew what position. I’d say our “x” and “z” receivers are probably distinct positions (left WR is a different position to us than right WR) and Robiskie and Massaquoi just happen to be the "1"s at that position.
Sometimes we brought Cribbs in to the game for his unique abilities (very good blocker for WR, probably our only guy who is scary on a reverse, etc.) and we just brought Little in at the same time to not give it away when we were or were not going for those types of plays. But Shurmur might still have more tricks up his sleeve.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
You deserve props just for watching the game a 2nd time.
Change isn't good or bad it just "is". Don Draper of Madmen
by realmccoy on Sep 16, 2011 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 8 recs
Did your overall perception of the teams performance improve after a second veiwing?
What does that MEAN - TO PLAY US OUT?!!?!?
A little, but mostly it stayed the same: we looked really good for about 1 1/2 quarters of football. We really hurt our own chances of winning the rest of the time. Best words I can find right now are sloppy and inconsistent.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Very nice.
Do you see it as a bit of a problem that Shurmur’s tendancies (like running the same play twice in a row with different variations) are so obvious? I would think that most NFL coaching staffs would pick up on that and a loot of them could find ways to rip us to sheds because of it…
by shep615 on Sep 16, 2011 10:14 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
He did it last year to make the WCO more palatable for Bradford: same set could audible to a different play.
by chitown browns fan on Sep 16, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
By the way, I agree that the pattern could be noticed by DCs doing their homework, I imagine.
by chitown browns fan on Sep 16, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
This is a difference philosophically between Daboll and Shurmur. Daboll wanted to have no tendencies. Shurmur is happy to let other people pick up on this but will attempt to burn them if they start guessing. If I picked up on it, NFL coordinators will definitely see it, but Shurmur is already planning ahead.
Even if you pick up on “oh hey they like to go to PA pass after a first down run” he doesn’t do it every time, he does it with different plays, and he will also go back to the very same run twice in a row. So if you get caught anticipating PA after every time we run for a first down, you are out of position for any number of other plays.
I think at best for DCs it’s a guessing game.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
It’s like saying “I am going to eat your knight with my knight next turn.” You might do it next turn, you might not. Your opponent might believe you, they might not. Daboll just wouldn’t talk in the first place.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
the browns have a defensive coordinator position opening up soon rufio, you should apply.
Smile big, hug bigger. Talk big, act bigger. Stop judging do something, shut the fck up do something.
I saw your comment pop up a minute before I finished my suggestion below. Agreed.
by chitown browns fan on Sep 16, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
At the end of the year, Rufio, assuming you continue to populate this spreadsheet throughout the season, you may be able to make some statistically significant observations on Browns offensive strategy, defensive adjustments made to that strategy coming out of halftime, and offensive counter-strategy to those adjustments, all of which I am sure you know, otherwise you would not have undertaken the effort.
As entertaining as it is for the DBN community to read your stuff, you should attempt to share your end result with the Browns coaching staff. I’m sure I’m not alone when thinking this when you produce stuff like this, but people who don’t get paid to do this for a specific team generally don’t spend the time and effort that you do in watching film and producing it. I know that there are people who know X’s and O’s better than you do; and there are those who may be more adept at the specific terminology used by our Browns; and there are those who may have a statistics background; and there are those who love the team; but, how many of them have that specific combination and choose to sit down in their free time and produce spreadsheets to share with a blog of fans, most of whom, like me, are pleased when they understand half the analysis.
I envision you the football version of Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting, mopping floors (blogging) at MIT (DBN) and correcting erroneous complex mathematical proofs (creating and populating season-long spreadsheets) at night in an unconscious effort to get the attention of the Fields Medal-winning professor (Holmgren/Heckert/Shurmur).
If your real name is Pat Shurmur or Dick Jauron, ignore the above. Otherwise, nice work, man, whether you choose to take my suggestion seriously or not.
by chitown browns fan on Sep 16, 2011 10:39 AM EDT reply actions

Smile big, hug bigger. Talk big, act bigger. Stop judging do something, shut the fck up do something.
by pwndabear on Sep 16, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 8 recs
I’m skimming for greens right now. Saw this a laughed my ass off!
golan 3:16
by Brownie's Year on Sep 17, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
LOL I know nothing about mathematical proofs.
While I would love the chance to talk to any of our coaches, I would be ridiculously surprised if I could share something with them that they don’t already know.
NFL teams have the resources to be able to self-scout, so they look at themselves as other teams will try to look at them. This will not only help them evaluate our own players but also begin to think about what opposing coaches will do and what they’ll face the next week.
If Chris or SBN could set something up, I might give it a shot, but I’ve got a lot to learn before I could actually bring some new observations to an NFL team.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I know some people who work for the Browns. Unfortunately they don’t have anything to do with player management/coaching/scouting. They either are trainers, doctors, or work in more of a PR capacity. If you legitimately want to give this a shot, I could see if the people I know know the right people to talk to about this sort of stuff.
Even Doug Dieken admits Joe Thomas is the real #73
this is awesome stuff, rufio, seriously. i’m really impressed, and this is really educational for me.
but i think you’re likely right … if the browns don’t scout and record all of this stuff (with the benefit of actually knowing each and every call down to the word), i would be surprised.
by DontCallMeJoey on Sep 16, 2011 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
The benefit of actually knowing the call is huge. So is having footage where you can actually watch the matchups downfield, which I do not have. I wanted to look more at is Colt not throwing into tight coverage/are the WRs open at all/should the read have been quicker but I can’t.
Glad you enjoyed it, hope I can keep doing it.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I love how much I learn from these posts. Plus, I looked up cover 1 robber and I found a really informative post on smart football about coverages.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Chris Brown has tons of good stuff. He tends to stay with college Xs and Os because of the wider variety of things you can do in college.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I have seen you link to there a few times and its funny that one of your posts inadvertently took me there. You are right, I was reading more and its really interesting stuff.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Good stuff. Have you used pivot tables?
If you keep this up, by the end of the year, you could do a cross tabulation on the down & distance. I bet we get a great idea of the play calling.
I have no idea what a pivot table is. Is that a way to look at only one set of data at once? So like all of our run plays or all of our 1st down plays?
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
It’s a way to group discrete rows in a spreadsheet and display statistics aggregated over each group.
For example, suppose you had one row for every offensive play, and each row contained two columns: the first column contains what down it was (1, 2, 3, and 4), and the second contains the number of yards gained on that play.
You decide to group on the first column, the down. There are four distinct values for this column, 1, 2, 3, and 4. Therefore, all rows that correspond to plays ran on first down would collapse into one row. All rows that correspond to plays ran on second down would collapse into another row, etc.
You could then perform [i]aggregate[/i] functions on the second row. For example, you could calculate an average. The resulting pivot table would tell you how many yards you gained on average on first down plays, second down plays, etc.
You could also decide to sum the data…. e.g. “this season, the Browns gained 2424 yards on first down.”
Now your spreadsheet is different. It’s got a column for the down and distance. I was thinking you could group by down/distance, so you could figure out things like, “this season, on first down, we went with a 212 personell 60% of the time. We passed the ball 51% of the time” etc.
Hope that makes sense, it’s kinda hard to explain.
I think so. I can try going to down in one column, distance in another, then figure out this sort of thing as we go along?
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
That’s a good idea. If you just collect as much data as possible, you’ll be able to play with it later. In terms of grouping, you want to group on columns with a lower degree of cardinality.
Say you have 10,000 rows in your spreadsheet, and 3 columns, called “A,” “B,” and “C.” Suppose you count the number of unique values for all the columns, and you discover that column A has 9000 distinct values, B has 534, and C has 12.
When you group on column A (which has a high cardinality, 9000 unique values amongst 10000 rows), you’ll wind up with 9000 rows in the pivot table. When you group on column B, you’ll wind up with 534 rows, and when you group on column C you’ll wind up with 12.
If you continue throughout the season, what I see being helpful is to have several groups of down and distance that represent “ranges.”
E.g. 1st down, more than 10 yards to go. Or 3rd and 2-4 yards. That way you don’t wind up with an unmanageably large pivot table, but still have enough precision to draw meaningful conclusions.
Ok I gotcha now. I’ll think about it and probably look at how other advanced stats people do it and try to come up with some ranges.
Unfortunately, our formations will probably end up with a high cardinality because of the sheer amount of unique ones that we will use. Personnel/packages, D&D, and run/pass/draw/PA should all look good.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
RT
I hope that you realize that Pachos would have dominated at least 2-3 times if he had manned the RT spot on Sunday. He is not the answer either. Hopefully one of the two (Hicks, Cousin) will be sufficient until the next draft. You know we must spend one of our 1st three picks on a RT in the next draft?
I disagree, from what I’ve seen Pashos has been great for us when he’s on the field. He’s much stronger than either Cousins or Hicks, and the three times I saw them get destroyed Dunlap more or less just ran them over.
The problem is that he’s never on the field.
We absolutely need to draft a RT, and we probably need to do it in this year’s draft. I have previously been against drafting a RT in the first round, but I am beginning to say “screw it, let’s just get somebody” but our (presumably high) pick is still off the table in my eyes. The Falcons’ pick might be a good one to spend on a RT, though.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
he’s too fragile to be a professional offensive lineman, period. get rid of him.
by DontCallMeJoey on Sep 16, 2011 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Rufio, first things first, great post. Perhaps on the penalties you could also cite the players drawing them to look for trends. I don’t know whet the ratio of tedium (or te deum) to value would be, so do what you will with that suggestion.
As far as when to draft a RT, now that there is a rookie pay scale does that change your idea of where one should be drafted. I have to say that after the last two years I have come to the conclusion that it can’t be a position for which we just hope that there is someone serviceable in the later rounds. It seems that not having a good RT is nearly as crippling as not having a good RB. ( I was gonna say QB, but don’t want to get into value wars with anyone.) As long as that position stinks we’re going to have trouble with the run and the pass.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
— Winston S. Churchill
at this stage, the position is such a black hole for the org as to require a high pick.
by DontCallMeJoey on Sep 16, 2011 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks, I don’t think adding the specific offender would be too much work. I probably could even find it in the play by plays if I miss one. Then we could look at who are the worst offenders as the year goes on.
As for RTs, I don’t think the new pay scale does a lot to sweeten the pot in my eyes. I still don’t think we should spend a top 10 pick on a RT, and it’s mostly because I think the position lacks value as compared to other ones. While the cap value is now different up there, we would still be spending a pick up there where we could draft a pass rusher, CB, WR, or even a QB if that’s where the front office wants to go. Adding any of those pieces to our team makes us better than we would be by adding a RT up there.
Additionally, RTs have less positional value. LTs have to not only block the blind side of the QB (much bigger risk of injury for your franchise if your LT sucks vs your RT), but also are more frequently have tougher blocking assignments. They have to go against the other team’s top rusher, and they often get less help from the TE. Even teams like the Colts with two great pass rushers still have their best DE on the QB’s blindside.
Lastly—and mostly because of the things I mentioned above—there are more human beings on this planet that can play RT in the NFL than can play LT. This higher supply means there is less demand, and we can wait a little bit on a RT.
I do disagree about RTs and the running game, though, as a lot of the guys we’ve had who can’t pass protect have been very good at run blocking. Both St. Clair and Womack were able to pave the way for Jerome Harrison and Hillis, for example. Pashos is very good at run blocking but just can’t get on the damn field.
But as long as that position is bad, we can’t protect our franchise QB, who is the most important person in the organization. That’s why I don’t think we can draft a late-rounder (or even several late-rounders) to try to fill the position. Let’s just get somebody who can come in and take the position from day 1 and get him on the field. Preferably, we could do that with a 2nd rounder, but if we need to use the Falcon’s pick, let’s do it.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
If I were a betting man, I’d bet that if the Falcons lose this next game at home against Philly and start the season 0-2, that 2012 pick might be worth a heck of a lot more than anyone originally thought when the Julio Jones trade was made. It might be even more valuable than our pick. I could see them going 8-8; that division’s not easy. Yeah, I said it.
by chitown browns fan on Sep 17, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
a healthy Pashos is definitely better than Hicks+Cousins
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
How much would it cost to keep him healthy, then…?
In theory there is no difference between theory and practice.
In practice there is. -- Yogi Berra
by JustPlainBrowns on Sep 17, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
If defenses are playing a lot of Cover 1 robber on us, then we need to make them pay by completing passes down the sidelines. Massaquoi had a big one and Moore missed one. If we can do that somewhat consistently, then we can force them to play some middle of the field open coverage. We should have success running the shallow series plays with the robber out of there. The guys on the outside need to keep the defense honest…or make them pay.
Obviously, though, this won’t happen if we keep committing penalties or do a poor job blocking.
In the end ruf, just don’t forget about alll us little peeps. Buy us a damn suite or something when you’re def coord.
Smile big, hug bigger. Talk big, act bigger. Stop judging do something, shut the fck up do something.
by pwndabear on Sep 17, 2011 1:17 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

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