The Cleveland Browns' Offense: Rufio's Notes Week 2
I've updated the spreadsheet and per a suggestion by scrumm I have begun separating things into further columns.
Shurmur's trend of running the same or countering plays back to back continued--including three different inside zone plays on our last three offensive plays of the game.
Another place where we saw the back-to-back tendency was in an area of our offense that we put in specifically for teams like the Colts:
The Screen Game
While many commenters on DBN seemed upset at our screen game, I enjoyed seeing it as a counter to a Colts' defense that emphasizes speed and athleticism. Shurmur knew he would have to slow down the Colts LDEs, and we attacked by using draws and screens.
By my count, we ran six screens with two of them going for little to no yardage. I graded a third screen as not successful because it only gained 4 yards on 2nd and 15.
One of the screens to Josh Cribbs happened to be one of our biggest offensive plays of the game and it also happened to be a part of Shurmur's back to back tendency:
Trailing 7-9 late in the 2nd quarter, we faced a 2nd and 10 from our own 32 yard line. Our offense came out in a 2x2 receiver formation with TEs Alex Smith and Ben Watson split wide, and WRs Greg Little and Josh Cribbs in the slot.
We brought Cribbs in motion to the left, which revealed the Colts were in zone coverage.
With two high safeties at the snap, we had a numbers advantage on the left side, out-leveraging the Colts there.
This situation was set up perfectly because Mike LB, who would be the third underneath defender to that side, was constrained by his run and pass responsibilities and because his zone drop took him out of the play. A play fake to RB Peyton Hillis ensured that the Colts had to worry about the run.
If we get this ball to Cribbs, he's in space and running with the ball (this = good for us).
Instead we faked the screen to Cribbs, and threw a screen back the other way to Hillis. This play doesn't work because the Colts have the leverage advantage in that area of the field. The Will LB is not only faster than C Alex Mack, he's further to the (offense's) right sideline. The Mike LB isn't out-leveraged by Hillis the way he is by Cribbs.
Even if Watson can keep the CB occupied, there is too much pursuit too close to Hillis:
On the very next play, we again came out in a shotgun formation with our TEs split out as receivers to the left. We again put Cribbs in motion and ended up in a trips (3x1) alignment. This time, the Colts showed a single-high safety look (note: I think the coverage was actually 2-high, with S Melvin Bullitt ready to bail deep at the snap).
We ran the same play fake to Hillis, which froze the defenders in run support, but this time we did throw the screen to Cribbs. Again constrained by their run responsibilities, the Colts were not in position to get out to stop the WR screen.
With the defense out-leveraged, Cribbs ran for 25 yards and a huge first down.
My beef with these two plays is that the one only worked because of luck. If the Colts happened to be in man or happened to have a hard corner rolled up on Cribbs, neither play would have worked. If we continue to run plays like this, we will continue to get lucky occasionally, but we shouldn't rely on luck. We should know that we will beat the defense every time.
The only real way to ensure that the play will work is to give Colt an option read. In the first situation (Cover-2 vs. 3x1) let Colt see how the defense rolls after the snap, and then let him choose the screen to the side with the better numbers. In the second situation (single-high) let him choose between the screen to Cribbs and a quick slant to Little, who has to win if the Colts are singled-up and playing tight man.
Facing a stacked box
If you've had the pleasure of listening to games with Bernie Kosar announcing, you've undoubtedly heard about run plays that are "never going to work" because of a defense's numbers advantage in the box. It's simple arithmetic: if the defense has more guys to stop the run than you have blockers, you're at a disadvantage.
We were committed to running the ball against the Colts, despite the fact that they repeatedly stacked the box to stop Peyton Hillis. By my count, the Colts played with a single-high safety for 44 snaps, and two high safeties on only 16 snaps. Consider that the Colts are known for their "Cover-2 defense", and that's a lot of plays with a safety walked up.
Peyton Hillis' 3.5 YPC were actually a testament to his bruising running style, as he was often hit at or behind the line of scrimmage. This is a structural problem for our offense, not simply a case of our line underperforming (though they did this as well at times).
However, Bernie is only mostly correct. An offense can run the ball while it is outnumbered in the box--if it can out-flank the defense and achieve the numbers advantage to one side of center. One of few times we did this as a team was on Peyton Hillis' 24 yard touchdown run.
On this play we saw EIGHT in the box vs. our 3 WR set. With only 6 blockers, the Colts had a body for every gap plus one extra guy:
But because of our ability to move the gaps by using a FB and a pulling guard, we were able to achieve a numbers advantage to our left:
And when we get everyone blocked for HIllis, good things happen:
Random/personnel notes
- Coach Shurmur continues to line up our offensive players in multiple positions. Hillis was wide to the left on Moore's TD, we all know about the Hardesty/Hillis backfield, and above I mentioned Smith and Watson being split wide.
- When Hillis was being subbed in for Hardesty in the goal line series, I could swear I saw the coach subbing him in saying "it isn't going to be a run play, do you want it anyway?" This is why coaches cover their mouths with the playcall sheet.
- Little played more than the other WRs. He took some of Robiskie's playing time, so instead of platoons of Little/Cribbs, Massaquoi/Robiskie like last week, Little was in with many groupings. He also played occasionally as the sole WR when we were in a big set.
- Cousins got more PT than Hicks, but both were beaten badly at least once. I don't think either of them landed on their back this game, though.
- Colt still isn't 100% comfortable with the offense. He's holding on to the ball a bit less, but he still needs to improve in that area. I'd like to see him take more chances to "throw receivers open"
- We are going to have to win when opposing teams stack the box to stop Peyton Hillis and single up on our WRs. Whether that's the "back shoulder" fades that we saw in the preseason, the play-action deep passes we saw against the Bengals, or even a receiver like Greg Little beating opposing CBs on a slant, someone has to get it done or we're going to see a lot more 8 in the box.
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The center lines up over the ball, obviously, but the other OL are allowed to align staggered off the line.
I’ll just quote the rulebook:
A Player of Team A is on his line:
…
c) if he is a non-snapper, he is not more than one foot behind the neutral zone at the snap. (For a non-snapper to be on the line of scrimmage, the guideline officials will use is that his helmet must break a vertical plane that would pass through the belt- line of the snapper.)
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
When was this rule modified. The neutral zone, begins immediately behind the line of scrimmage, the tip of the ball, facing the defense. You wanted to take it there, you are mistaken, indeed they are in violation of the rules. They do this every play? Do the math, how many fouls committed. Add it up, I would say our season is over.
It’s been that way for a long time. Lining up that way is legal and every team does it on almost every play. Sometimes OL will get up really close to the actual line of scrimmage in short yardage situations.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Colt still isn’t 100% comfortable with the offense. He’s holding on to the ball a bit less, but he still needs to improve in that area. I’d like to see him take more chances to “throw receivers open”
This is a good point, but I hope they don’t take it too far too soon with Colt this season. I’d rather have a QB playing conservative ball and opening it up only gradually as he gets comfortable with his guys, limiting himself to surefire throws along the way. I’d even rather see us lose a couple games and be consistent but improving than see us win by taking chances and lucking out.
I’d be really happy on Sunday if we ran a couple long 80-yard drives, mostly with underneath passes, screens and nicely-designed Hillis runs, gaining a consistent average of five or six yards and not turning the ball over.
After we can do that, then let’s start thinking about opening up the passing game and going deep to Little maybe. That’s my view, at least.
yeah, i’m hopeful that as colt evolves in this offense he will be given the freedom to run a “choose” play on these screens, as rufio suggests.
by DontCallMeJoey on Sep 23, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you making fun of a typo? I’ve been through it too many times to see it.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
DID SHEARD THROW THE BALL OR WHAT, IT’S EATING ME ALIVE TO KNOW.
Pittsburgh is just jealous. We got Cudi and they have Wiz.
by SpecialBrownie on Sep 23, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha oh yeah, I watched it like 50 times and I am still not sure.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Just kidding; at first it just looked like it bounced out of there when his arm hit the ground. Kind of like dropping a tennis ball on top of a basketball and watching the tennis ball get launched. But when they really slowed it down, it did look like Sheard was beginnning to turn to try to lateral the ball.
I think he started to try to throw it and bailed out halfway through, but it was too late and the ball went flying.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
While acknowledging the superiority of rufio’s efforts, here’s another spreadsheet I slapped together on last week’s game that goes through each play and includes a subjective assessment of players’ mistakes and good plays. Is anybody interested in more of this sort of thing?
We should start talking about the upcoming Miami game. What are their weaknesses? What are the Browns expected to do, and what will Miami’s gameplan be?
Your spreadsheet is the color commentator version of Rufio’s coach’s observations. Pluses: It’s a quick read with color-coding and assignment of blame on a per play basis, including offense, defense, and special teams. There is no question that this took time and serious effort. This is really nice for those of us who missed the game and would like to know what happened. I know if I had to miss a game, this would be wonderful to have on, say, a Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest for it to be relevant.
Minus: While it’s not a flaw of the analysis itself, the fact is that most of us watched or heard the game Sunday and probably heard one commentary during.
Overall, well done, Batard. If you’re willing to put the effort in to do this weekly, I doubt anyone would complain. This sort of analysis would be particularly relevant for those of us in out-of-Cleveland markets who can’t just DVR the game if we miss it or for those Clevelanders/Ohioans who didn’t/can’t/forgot to DVR the game. It’s also relevant for those who just can’t get enough analysis and want to compare who you assign blame versus Rufio’s thoughts on a play-by-play basis. Again, timeliness of this sort of spreadsheet is important.
by chitown browns fan on Sep 23, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the critique. I’ll try to do one for the Miami game a bit quicker – perhaps that’ll make it more relevant/useful for people.
I miss a lot of stuff seeing games live – especially a couple beers in – so it’s fun to go through and see what actually happened and who really screwed up or did well.
If you are looking at defense, something easy that you could do (that I would find interesting/useful) would be to take note of how many safeties are high on the snap. It’s either 1 or 2 so it’s pretty simple, but they are often off the screen so it might involve counting the players on the screen.
Another would be how many we rush against the pass.
Don’t know how complicated you want to get.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Very well done, Rufio. Just wondering – how do you get the screen shots of the game for your posts?
by chitown browns fan on Sep 23, 2011 10:19 AM EDT reply actions
Good stuff! I like the new spreadsheet. I would only make two changes:
1. Down and distance get to be separate, strictly numeric columns. That way we can do two things: look at all stats on a particular down, e.g. 3rd down, as well as do stats on distance — e.g. “when we were < 5 yards from the 1st down marker, we had a 60/40 run/pass ratio.”
2. Include a numeric column for the number of yards gained on the play. This column, subtracted by the “distance” column I mentioned above, would be a good indicator of “explosiveness” when taken in aggregate.
What should the numeral be for goal to go? 0? 1000?
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
why not make it distance from the goal line?
by DontCallMeJoey on Sep 23, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
In fairness to Bernie, the example you give for how we were able to take advantage of 8 in the box with 6 blockers overlooks the situation (highly likely passing down AND we had 3 wideouts). The 8 weren’t just in the box, but at the line, so two defenders were negated simply by avoiding their side of the line. Heck, they were assuming play action and went straight for Colt…
I guess I’m more concerned that the successful running play seems to be due to “luck” more than the successful screen pass – and we were expecting to have an edge in the running game!!!?
Not to take anything away from the post. GREAT stuff. This is what makes DBN awesome.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Sep 23, 2011 12:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Well we had the advantage of it being a passing situation in terms of down and distance, but the disadvantage of the time and score dictating a running situation. We could run the ball, take another 40 seconds off the clock, kick the FG, then make the Colts score a TD and go for 2.
And it doesn’t matter a whole lot that the defenders are at the line vs “just” in the box. Even if the Mike and Will are off the line and one of the DTs is in his normal 1 tech, we still have a blocker for every person on that side of the line.
The blocking angles might not be as good, and the defense might force a cutback that doesn’t allow 24 yards of virtually untouched rushing into the endzone, but we can get Peyton beyond the line of scrimmage before he gets hit. The fact that we had so much success with this play was luck, the fact that it worked (i.e. got us significant yardage) wasn’t.
One of the unblocked guys’ job is contain on the opposite side of the play. If he does his job and we are running this play, he’s out of the play unless we mess up on the frontside and get a huge cutback. If he’s “freelancing” then he’s guessing. And we should have plays in the playbook like a naked bootleg or a WR end around to keep him at home (I believe the deep pass to Massaquoi last game was one of those nakeds). If he guesses right, there isn’t much we can do. The only real way to ensure that he is wrong is to option him, but that’s another debate. The other unblocked guy on that side is defending a gap that no longer exists because we’ve moved it to the other side of the formation.
We are in 3WR sets a lot, and the Colts simply don’t care. They know we throw a lot, and they still don’t care. They spent an inordinate amount of resources stopping the run (extra safeties, the attention of every zone defender on the team, etc.) and teams will continue to do this against us. And it won’t matter to the defense what the situation is unless we are down by 4+ with under 2 minutes.
If we want to get Peyton significant carries, we are going to have to run the ball into a numbers disadvantage at times. I’m not advocating going 3 wide and running it every down because if it were up to me we’d force to take a guy out of that box or we would burn them in other ways. With Little still a true rookie and Massaquoi still facing #1 CBs, I don’t think we have the guy that we can count on for 80+% complete on a one-step slant for 6 yards.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
This is highly motivational. Can we get this in poster size?
by BornAKardiacKid on Sep 23, 2011 1:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Look at the size of Hillis. Damn, it sure is nice to have the leagues only Offensive FullTackle RunningBack.
What does that MEAN - TO PLAY US OUT?!!?!?
You forgot white.
Pittsburgh is just jealous. We got Cudi and they have Wiz.
by SpecialBrownie on Sep 23, 2011 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
In the first situation (Cover-2 vs. 3×1) let Colt see how the defense rolls after the snap, and then let him choose the screen to the side with the better numbers
great point. i didn’t see either of the screen plays, but it sounded to me from this recap (and looked to me from the screen shots) that the better play to get the ball to cribbs was actually the first one, w/ the two high safeties. the fact that the play to him went for 25 yards is a testament to luck and cribbs’ inherent beastiness with the ball in his hands.
get the ball to cribbs fast (i.e. screens, quick slants), and let him operate.
Getting trips vs. C2 is like catching them with their pants down. That’s definitely the better play to get Cribbs the ball (though if the second play was indeed a disguised quarters coverage, that’s not a bad option either, it’s just that the Colts hadn’t backed off into quarters yet). My guess is that Shurmur saw the play and tried to catch them in the same defense (but if that’s the case I don’t know why we didn’t use the same motion)
Any time we can get a 20+ yard play, it is largely due to the ballcarrier. Cribbs is awesome and I want the ball in his hands if we can get it there. But we can get guys 5+ untouched yard chunks.
Also one thing I didn’t mention is that it might have been less of a guess and more of a hypothesis on Shurmur’s part about what coverage they’d see. If he’s studied the tape of that situation and the Colts almost always go to X defense in a given situation, he can make a pretty good bet.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

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