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Talking Cleveland Browns With Football Outsiders

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With the NFL season starting today, it is time for our annual interview with Football Outsiders! Every year, the 2011 Football Outsiders Almanac is worth a good read to familiarize yourself with all 32 NFL teams, and to gain some insight on various statistical categories. Per Football Outsiders, the Almanac is "the essential guide to the 2011 season, the book that correctly predicted 9 of 12 playoff teams last year, fully updated with post-lockout free agency and trades."

We asked Football Outsiders five questions about the Cleveland Browns, including why the team is projected to do so well this year and how effective Peyton Hillis can be depending on who else is in the game. Our interview was conducted with Aaron Schatz, who wrote the chapter on the Browns in this year's Almanac.

Star-divide

Chris: "In your preview for the Cleveland Browns, it seems as though there is a confidence that the team is going to enter the month of December with a winning record. I know Cleveland has an easy schedule up until that point, but is there anything besides the soft schedule that gives them an optimistic projection?"

Aaron: "How about the fact that they really weren't that bad last year? They had -3.1% overall DVOA, which was 20th in the NFL. They had bad luck in close games, 3-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less. And they have a lot of young, maturing players like Colt McCoy and T.J. Ward who should be better this year with more experience."

Chris: "Much has been made among some Cleveland fans over the loss of fullback Lawrence Vickers. Do you think his absence (not including other factors) will affect Peyton Hillis' production this season?"

Aaron: "Well, I can give you a disappointing statistic. Last year, the Browns were much better running with two backs (4.1 yards, 4.5% DVOA) than with one back (3.8 yards, -21.7% DVOA). However, that's not necessarily because Vickers is a great blocker. It could be because Hillis' running style works better with a lead blocker than it does in more spread-out formations."

Chris: "Since free agent safety Usama Young has missed most of training camp, it's uncertain who will be the opening day starter between he and Mike Adams. If you were going based on previous production, who should start?"

Aaron: "Honestly, I have no idea. Safety is the most difficult position to judge based on advanced statistics. So much of what they do is a) off-screen and thus difficult to chart and b) dependent on scheme."

Chris: "Tight end Evan Moore has been having a great camp and preseason, and fans loved the mismatches he created with the few reps he had last season. Was there anything that showed an advantage whenever Moore was in the lineup?"

Aaron: "Well, Moore himself had great numbers in our play-by-play analysis, with a DVOA of 41.4%. That was fourth among all tight ends with at least 25 passes."

Chris: "It seemed like the Browns' backup running back situation was terrible last year. Were there any other teams in the league -- who had one primary back who stayed healthy most of the year -- that had a similar lack of productivity from their backup running backs?"

Aaron: "St. Louis is the most obvious example."

Thanks again to Football Outsiders for their time!

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Wondering how TLP will take this seemingly positive, yet “objective” view of the Browns as “really weren’t that bad last year” and “had bad luck” and “they have a lot of young, maturing players…who should be better this year with more experience” and “there is a confidence that the team is going to enter the month of December with a winning record” and turn it into reasons that we are horrible.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Sep 8, 2011 3:34 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

With a grain of salt and a pound of pessimism, would be my guess…..

What does that MEAN - TO PLAY US OUT?!!?!?

by DaveDawg09 on Sep 8, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dirty rotten lies!

but I laughed.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Sep 8, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s really not that hard, if you ask me.

"really weren’t that bad last year" and "had bad luck"

Great! So, what do we do? Clean house. The whole coaching staff that created a decent team out of inferior talent? Gone.

"they have a lot of young, maturing players…who should be better this year with more experience"

You know what stunts the progress of young players better than anything? Asking them to learn all new schemes during an off-season where they are not allowed any contact with an all new coaching staff. Everything they were asked to do previously is now different.

I’m not even a pessimist either. I’m excited about plenty of the young guys on the team and of course, today is opening day, so its impossible to not be excited and shamelessly and irrationally hopeful about the Browns as at the beginning of every year.

But honestly, how relevant are last year’s team numbers towards projecting this year’s team? Sure, we have a lot of the same young promising players on the team. But it remains to be seen how much of last year’s relative success was a product of schemes or actual individual talent, or how well they will adapt to new responsibilities and expectations.

by TKilbane on Sep 8, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Run Hillis, Run Hillis, Throw to Stuckey or Hillis, punt is not a scheme.

by HenryDawg on Sep 8, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hear you. I guess with the scheming, I’m much more worried about the loss of Rob Ryan, who I believe was the main reason that opposing coaches and qb’s considered our D one of the toughest to figure out, despite not having the talent to be a top level dominate D when it came to total numbers.

And while I expect our offense to be better this year with an “offensive” HC now combining with Holmgren, the point remains that everything Colt learned about scheming and how to attack defenses last year as a rookie has changed.

by TKilbane on Sep 9, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we will see a step back on D, for sure. Ryan elevated our defense.

But whatever Colt learned isn’t all of a sudden irrelevant in this new system. NFL coaches are all very similar, and it’s still the same game. Some of the philosophy will be different (i.e. how they treat the added risk of passing the ball, how aggressive to be, how much a play that gains nothing hurts the offense, etc.) and the terminology will be different, but it’s still football.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Sep 9, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

whatever Colt learned isn’t all of a sudden irrelevant in this new system…

Yeah, not to mention the experience last year of facing the Jets, Patriots, Steelers (twice), Saints and Ravens with real bullets flying. That’s what you call the “school of hard knocks” and should serve him as well as every minute of education he gets in practice from the new coaches with the new system.

Go, I say go away boy, you bother me.

by burntorangeandbrown on Sep 9, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

(i.e. – rufio I agree with you completely)

Go, I say go away boy, you bother me.

by burntorangeandbrown on Sep 9, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was a pretty good job. I think someone else can do better though.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Sep 8, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I get what your saying. Honestly though, I think some of the “bad luck” and these close losses had a lot to do with the coaching decisions made in game.

by -bobby- on Sep 8, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then why did we fire Mangini?

The spin around here has gotten pretty fast lately.

Mangini apologist by default.

by Villeslgr on Sep 8, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Because he didn’t win enough games and the pressure of the lack of comforaibility with Holmgren’s system finally did him in.

I liked Mangini, I just think Shurmur will do a good job too. If I am building a franchise I’d take Mangini over Shurmur, but I would take Holmgren over all of them.

The bottom line in the NFL is Ws, and Mangini didn’t get enough of them. Since when have I complained about Mangini or the product on the field? I even loved his non-talk to the media.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Sep 8, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wasn’t he involved in those things that are giving you confidence for this year?

Mangini apologist by default.

by Villeslgr on Sep 9, 2011 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

He absolutely was. I liked Mangini a lot as a coach and I think he did really good things for us. The media was riduculously harsh on him because he didn’t feed their gossip train and I loved it. I loved the toughness and discipline he brought to the team. I loved the simulated noise at practice, the running laps punishments, and the information he didn’t release about injuries. I loved that he demanded intelligence from our team and made us tough for anyone to beat, even when the talent disparity was against us.

The problem was the organizational structure. I was not comfortable with Mangini as the “czar” or whatever you want to call it—and I don’t think Lerner was either. And the guy we brought in happened to be of a different football background than Mangini—if it would have been Parcells I think Mangini might still be here. I think Holmgren was willing to let Mangini do things differently than the WCO Walsh tree does as long as he saw an improvement in the record and he didn’t. Not to mention the complete reversal of the previous year’s end of season trend. It’s like Rich Rod letting Ryan Mallett go; Mallett was a great college QB, Rich just needed Denard Robinson.

Our poor record was probably due to luck and untimely mistakes that were out of Mangini’s control as much as anything else, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. If Chansi doesn’t fumble, if we don’t let MJD go 90 bajillion yards at the end of the game,if Eric Wright gets burned only twice and breaks up one pass to Boldin, if Seneca doesn’t throw a pick-6 against KC, etc. many of the games we lost could be said to have come down to one play. Mangini didn’t screw up, he actually had us in position to win around 12 games last year—and that’s damn good considering where we were when he took over. But fairly or not in this league, the HC is responsible for wins and losses when all is said and done. We didn’t make the plays and the other teams did.

I don’t like that we fired Mangini, and I do think it was a bit unfair to him, but I can see why they did it. And I think it might be best for the organization long-term to have the familiarity that we now do—if we can win enough games to keep this regime intact, I expect great thib. I wish Holmgren would have done it a year earlier if he was going to do can Mangini anyway, but hindsight is 20/20.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Sep 9, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I agree with almost every single word here — especially the great thib. Allow me to add two additional comments that are sure to raise a stink with some on this site:

1. I am still mystified by Mangini’s unwavering support and apparent fascination with his hand picked OC (whose name shall not be mentioned here).

and, here goes…

2. IMO, Rob Ryan is over rated as a DC. He’s all hoo-ah and no do-ah. If our defense can get off the field on at least a couple 3 and outs this season each game, I’ll be ecstatic. You could prolly count those on one hand for all of last year’s games combined. My only wish is that some owner on there (preferably someone like Al Davis) would be dumb enough to give him the head coaching opportunity he’s been yapping about so he’ll finally shut up about it.

The relevance of these previous comments points back directly to what concerned me most about Mangini. It wasn’t his lack of football knowledge, innovation or organizational ability. As far as general coaching, to me, he was always at least average. But, his personnel, scouting and interpersonal skills were so weak that his failure to quickly identify and address them ultimately resulted in his removal. The back to back 5-11 records were just the pretext that Holmgren needed to give him the hook.

Ok.

Ready – Fire – Aim!

In theory there is no difference between theory and practice.
In practice there is. -- Yogi Berra

by JustPlainBrowns on Sep 9, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rob Ryan is overrated and I do think Jauron is underrated, but Rob Ryan is still probably a bit better.

I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!

by bross09 on Sep 9, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

This seems reasonable to me.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Sep 9, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Our poor record was probably due to luck and untimely mistakes that were out of Mangini’s control as much as anything else, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. If Chansi doesn’t fumble, if we don’t let MJD go 90 bajillion yards at the end of the game,if Eric Wright gets burned only twice and breaks up one pass to Boldin, if Seneca doesn’t throw a pick-6 against KC, etc. many of the games we lost could be said to have come down to one play. Mangini didn’t screw up, he actually had us in position to win around 12 games last year—and that’s damn good considering where we were when he took over. But fairly or not in this league, the HC is responsible for wins and losses when all is said and done. We didn’t make the plays and the other teams did.

I think I agree with all of this and I also don’t think Mangini should be excused for losing due to “bad luck.” I just get a snake oil feeling about the organization lately.

Mangini apologist by default.

by Villeslgr on Sep 9, 2011 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

You are definitely allowed your opinion on that, but I haven’t flip-flopped on this stuff.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Sep 9, 2011 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t completely agree with firing mangini but I don’t mind shurmur. If you are going to put scheme associations aside and connections and coaching trees, he probably deserved another chance based on how the team played. I understand going to a Heckert guy from the Reid/Holmgren tree who also knows the WCO, though I think there should be more reasons than that to hire a coach (and maybe there are, we haven’t seen him coach yet).

I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!

by bross09 on Sep 10, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

The bottom line in the NFL is W’s… I get that. But the biggest problem with using them as the most important evaluation tool is that gives us only 16 data points each year. With such a small sample size, the variations of strength of schedule, injuries, fluke performances and just plain luck create way too much noise in the W-L record from year to year (see: Romeo Crennel’s tenure).

The W-L record may have been a convenient excuse to let Mangini go, but it was not the real reason.

by TKilbane on Sep 9, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

It was definitely a part of it. If Holmgren didn’t like Mangini from the get go, he could have fired him—in fact that’s what everyone expected. People were surprised he gave Mangini a chance to prove himself.

Eric made the team competitive, but he just didn’t win enough games. I think Holmgren would have overlooked the coaching background differences if Mangini would have proved that the odd marriage could have worked by winning. It would have been insanely stupid to keep him on for that second year if there was no long-term chance of him staying.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Sep 9, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

See what I’m talking about?

Not many people round here actually hold any stances. Their opinions are contingent on whatever the FO does

by The Licensed Pessimist on Sep 8, 2011 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

You still haven’t decided if the preseason is meaningless or if it means all of our players suck….You still haven’t decided if Colt McCoy performing like an above average QB is the most ridiculously optimistic thing you’ve ever heard or if it’s perfectly within reason…

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Sep 9, 2011 3:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Seriously, WTF man? Where have I said that we were not a competitive, if unlucky team last year who lost a lot of close games and could have had a lot better W-L record with a few more bounces our way? You are acting like I fired the man. I didn’t like that we fired Mangini—especially because it wasn’t immediate upon Holmgren’s arrival—but I understood why they did it. When has that not been what I have said? And furthermore, how does my opinion get thrown together with that of FBO? What am I spinning?

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Sep 9, 2011 3:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Honestly, I must have misread the tone of your comment.

Mangini apologist by default.

by Villeslgr on Sep 9, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

SHOULD HAVE KEPT VICKERS.

"Quote goes here."

by Adrock2099 on Sep 8, 2011 3:58 PM EDT reply actions  

That’s what I read too.

"I want my unwarranted optimism back." -Dilbert

by Simmsinns on Sep 9, 2011 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

What record did Football Outsiders predict for us this year?

by Bumblyjack on Sep 8, 2011 7:40 PM EDT reply actions  

I think it was 8-8

by HenryDawg on Sep 8, 2011 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

GWE will be late. Huge SoCal power outage. Sorry guys

My dog is a badass. His name is Kosar.

by Brownie's Year on Sep 9, 2011 2:03 AM EDT reply actions  

Feces occurs. It’s no problem.

I really don’t really think... - Tom Heckert

by North Coast Flea on Sep 9, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

It was a tad scary. Two nuclear reactors shut down around mid day. We were hearing that we wouldn’t have power for a couple days. But it came back on this morning.
I had fun with it though. A bunch of people from my street came over to use my BBQ. We just got drunk and played pool all night.

My dog is a badass. His name is Kosar.

by Brownie's Year on Sep 9, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds like an emotional roller coaster.

I really don’t really think... - Tom Heckert

by North Coast Flea on Sep 9, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Feces has it’s ups and downs.

My dog is a badass. His name is Kosar.

by Brownie's Year on Sep 9, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wait until you hear “Emergency shut down of Reactor Number One” followed twenty minutes later by an identical announcement for Reactor Number 2 … on an aircraft carrier … underway. That will definitely turn your FA RTs to Sheards.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
— Winston S. Churchill

by JustBob on Sep 9, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

No thanks.

My dog is a badass. His name is Kosar.

by Brownie's Year on Sep 9, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

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