Draft Pick Value

I started thinking about how the Browns straight robbed the Falcons in the 2011 draft and it got me thinking about the value of picks in the draft. How do you determine draft pick value? How do you trade picks without giving up too much like the Falcons? What is the value of our picks this year? And, if and when we make a trade this year (up or down) how can I decide if it was worth it?
After searching for answers to these questions on the internet I found this article and thought I would share.

4 months ago crazyL80 11 comments 7 recs |

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Great article.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by rufio on Jan 20, 2012 11:18 AM EST reply actions

What a cool way to look at this. Huge REC

by Bernie19Kosar on Jan 20, 2012 12:05 PM EST reply actions

Based on his draft values, we gave up 342.4 (6th overall) points, and got 214.7 (27th) + 135.1 (59th) + 78.7 (124th) + 232.1 (22nd) + 82.6 (118th) = 743.2 points for the Falcons trade. We knew we came out ahead in that trade, but according to this Atlanta got completely ripped off.

by VolkovNB on Jan 20, 2012 1:59 PM EST reply actions

Heckert on draft day

Yow, ripped off is right. This is how I will picture Heckert from this day forward.

by mister serious on Jan 20, 2012 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 13 recs

This is appropriate in more than one way. Rec.

by S.NM.Brown on Jan 20, 2012 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

This math does not work because it does not take into account the time value of draft picks. Next year’s first is not worth the same as this year’s first at the same position. You have to discount the future picks at the time they were given.

2010 Official DBN League Fantasy Football Champion

by TheDriveStillHurts on Jan 21, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

Cut next years values in half and we still come out way ahead.

by VolkovNB on Jan 23, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

I agree that it’s a great way to look at things. I wish it was as simple as this because if we gave up our 1st (376.9) and 2nd rounder (167.7) this year (not even including our 2nd 1st round pick!), we could swap picks with Indy (494.6). Even then we’d be losing out on 59 points.

by S.NM.Brown on Jan 20, 2012 2:07 PM EST reply actions

REC REC REC

Makes me want to do a Six Sigma project/post on the Browns. Though I would need to run a few polls first. It would be better if I used DBN numbers than my own opinion.

by Brownie's Year on Jan 20, 2012 6:10 PM EST reply actions

By using this new formula for draft pick value we doubled our pick value by making the trade. Our 1st pick last year was at 6th overall valued at 342.4 pts. If we just took the Falcons 1st and 2nd it would have been a good deal value wise with their picks adding up to 369.9 pts. Instead we took their 1st, 2nd, and 4th plus this years 1st and 4th totaling 766.6 pts according to these stats (almost double our original value).

This is the type of trade that changes franchises. If we trade down again (with any of the picks we aquired) we will probably get even more value out of the trade. Because we traded down last year we have enough picks that we can afford to trade down again. Holes will be filled on our roster and we might start winning games.

by crazyL80 on Jan 21, 2012 4:34 PM EST reply actions