Pro Football Focus: Trending Players on the Browns
by Chris Pokorny on Feb 8, 2012 11:58 PM EST
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PrintIn what appears to be an annual feature now on Pro Football Focus, they reviewed the players on the teams in the AFC North in a feature called "Trending in the AFC North" (note: last year, it was called "Movers and Fallers). There were three categories for each team, including "Most Improved," "Biggest Drop Off," and "More Snaps Needed." Last year, the players that filled those categories were LB Chris Gocong, RT John St. Clair, and LB Marcus Benard, respectively. Well, we all know Benard didn't get more snaps because of Eric Mangini a motorcycle accident. Which players fell into the categories this year?
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Most Improved - DT Ahtyba Rubin: Rubin has always seemed solid to me. PFF says that his previous best year was in 2009, but that he suffered an unusual drop off in 2010 during Rob Ryan's final year with the team with a 3-4 defense. The switch to a 4-3 defense this year allowed Rubin to have a career year, while playing a "ridiculous" 945 snaps (nearly 60 snaps per game). His ranking improved from -19.4 to +8.9 from 2010 to 2011.
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Biggest Drop Off - LB Chris Gocong: After being last year's most improved player, how does Gocong get the biggest drop off nod? I know he played quite well this season, although maybe I'm just focusing on a few high impact plays/series that he had and not looking at the big picture. PFF doesn't say he was terrible, just not as sound as he was in the 3-4 defense, particularly in coverage. His ranking fell from +18.4 to -5.7 from 2010 to 2011.
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More Snaps Needed - TE Evan Moore: Everyone just has to use the more/Moore reference, don't they? From PFF:
"It’s almost criminal that Moore has had just 94 balls thrown at him in the last three years. With the depth chart ahead in its current state, it shouldn’t be that way."
Forget almost. It is criminal.
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I appreciate what PFF does, but I just find it so hard to believe their system is good when you get such wide variation among players from year to year. It’s probably one of the best systems out there for now, I just don’t think their goal is one that they can accomplish.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
why is it hard to believe that players play differently from year to year?
by The Licensed Pessimist on Feb 9, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think that is what he is saying.
The huge swings from year to year do seem odd.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 9, 2012 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t understand whats odd about this. These are the two biggest swings, and don’t represent the swing from every individual player.
I would think it would be more odd if every single player played the same every year
by The Licensed Pessimist on Feb 9, 2012 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
I’m just saying I find it hard to believe that one year a guy is amazing and the next year he sucks. Players don’t change that fast. I get that you love PFF, but just look at how they describe their grading:
A typical line of analysis will describe an offensive and defensive player being graded for a one-on-one confrontation. This will include their names and grades as well as a comment describing the play. So for example, a match-up between a right guard and left defensive tackle could result in the following comment:
.
"The RG drove the DLT down the line of scrimmage opening a wide hole off his outside hip for the running back (##) to pick up the first down on 3rd & 3."
That would result in a negative grade for the DT and a positive one for the Guard. But what if the guard was supposed to kick his player out and the running back just bounced it outside? The problem here is they are assuming they knew what play was supposed to be run. As another example, what if a QB throws over a receiver’s head on a timing route? Was it a bad throw, or was the receiver in the wrong spot?
That’s just one example. I have a lot of other problems with their grading system, but I don’t want to write a fanpost here. Like I said above, it’s a good step, but it still isn’t all that reliable. It’s a bit like UZR in baseball. Interesting, and usually a good indicator, but still not reliable.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
I’m just saying I find it hard to believe that one year a guy is amazing and the next year he sucks.
What’s so hard to believe about that? You don’t think that players can have down years? Look at Jake Long. He was the 2nd best LT in the world every year since he was drafted, but was one of the worst this year.
McCourty in NE was rookie of the year last year, but this year he gave up over 1000 yards in coverage. Asomaugh was the best CB in the league last year, but started off the year horrible and despite getting better, still wasn’t able to match his previous success. BJ Raji sucked this year despite playing like a pro-bowler last year.
What I find it hard to believe that a person who can think logically could find it hard to believe. Considering that opponents change yearly and injuries happen, there is no reason not to.
That would result in a negative grade for the DT and a positive one for the Guard. But what if the guard was supposed to kick his player out and the running back just bounced it outside? The problem here is they are assuming they knew what play was supposed to be run. As another example, what if a QB throws over a receiver’s head on a timing route? Was it a bad throw, or was the receiver in the wrong spot?
1.They’ve stated many times in their comments and in their articles that they usually take different situations into account for their grades.
2. I think you over-emphasis the need to know the precise movement in order to justify whether a player was successful or not. If a LT takes a DT out of the play, regardless of what either of their assignments were, then that was an unsuccessful play. If the LT allows a DT the backfield, then it would most likely be an unsuccessful play. But If the RB bounced it to the outside because his gap closed, that would probably fall on the lineman who allowed that to happen. These people have been watching every play in the NFL for the last couple of year. I think they have a handle on NFL plays and expectation more than anyone. Of course they can never be perfect, but I don’t think perfection is even needed, and regardless those looking for perfection are looking for excuses.
3. Most importantly, I think what makes the rankings the legitimate and makes all of your questions nit-picky is simply the fact that every player is graded on the exact same standards. So even if some of the metrics were skewed one way or the other, you can at least say that every player is held to those skewed standards and over the course of the season they even out. So if one G is punished for their RB taking the wrong gap, then every G is punished for their RB taking the wrong gap.
by The Licensed Pessimist on Feb 9, 2012 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
They’ve stated many times in their comments and in their articles that they usually take different situations into account for their grades.
Can you elaborate on this? Because the timing route example is one they use in their very own FAQ. According to them, a play like that would receive a 0 rating, because they can’t be sure what was supposed to happen. I hope you see how that is a huge issue.
If a LT takes a DT out of the play, regardless of what either of their assignments were, then that was an unsuccessful play.
Unsuccessful for the team maybe, but what if that DT was doing his job? Why should it count against him that the run was designed to go away from his gap? This is alto a direct contradiction of this statement:
If the RB bounced it to the outside because his gap closed, that would probably fall on the lineman who allowed that to happen.By the logic you used above, this should still count as a successful play for the offensive lineman, and I hope it’s obvious that it should not.
I think what makes the rankings the legitimate and makes all of your questions nit-picky is simply the fact that every player is graded on the exact same standards. So even if some of the metrics were skewed one way or the other, you can at least say that every player is held to those skewed standards and over the course of the season they even out.My problem isn’t that the metrics are skewed, it’s that they’re inaccurate. Every player is not judged on the same standards. At the end of the day there is nothing objective about what they are doing. They do their best to make it look objective, and they do a damn good job, but they are still subjectively determining whether or not a play was a success without knowing what everyone’s responsibilities were.
I also find your assertion that it evens out over a season ridiculous, to be perfectly honest. One of the main reasons people do this type of analysis is because the sample size is incredibly small. You can’t just assume everything evens out, that’s absurd on it’s face.
So if one G is punished for their RB taking the wrong gap, then every G is punished for their RB taking the wrong gap.
This is the most important part, so even if you’re all riled up at the rest of my reply please make note of this part. The statement quoted above is not correct. The reason it is not correct is because the people at PFF don’t know what the correct gap is. So on one play a guard might get penalized for a back taking the wrong gap, and on another they might not. This is the source of my apprehension. Please remember, I think PFF is very, very good. I just think they should include some pretty wide confidence intervals.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Feb 9, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
My problem isn’t that the metrics are skewed, it’s that they’re inaccurate.
Substitute “imprecise” for inaccurate. I think their team stats are a lot better than their individual stats, but I think all of it should come with some sizable error bars.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Feb 9, 2012 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
My problem isn’t that the metrics are skewed, it’s that they’re inaccurate. Every player is not judged on the same standards. At the end of the day there is nothing objective about what they are doing. They do their best to make it look objective, and they do a damn good job, but they are still subjectively determining whether or not a play was a success without knowing what everyone’s responsibilities were.
You haven’t come up with any specific real life example that can legitimize your opinion. You haven’t shown they’re innacurate through your own breakdown, you haven’t shown their play diagnosis can’t estimate the gap assignments, or even most important you haven’t explain why correct gap assumptions would be important to the way they compile their stats in the first place.
All you’re really doing is taking your own assumptions which, in context, mean very little for the lack of knowledge and analytic capacity of these individuals, and posing lazy “what-if” scenarios which mean absolutely nothing. How is every player NOT judged by the same standard? How is what they’re doing not objective? Do you want to actually want to do the leg work to answer these questions, or do you want to continuously throw conjecture and hope one sticks? I suggest you go to the comments sections and ask them yourself!
by The Licensed Pessimist on Feb 10, 2012 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
During the SF game, specifically, they confused a FB leading outside on a sweep with a pulling RG. If they credit either player in that case, they are inaccurate because they are giving credit to the wrong player. That’s example 1.
Example 2 is that they criticized Jabaal Sheard on a different big run in the SF game for getting pinned inside and allowing the run to bounce outside. Sheard had C gap responsibility on that play, meaning he should have been playing the gap inside the TE—which he did. He could have done a better job of penetrating and blowing the play up in the backfield, but he did an adequate job against the run by controlling his gap. The major gaffe on the play was by second-level run support who simply did not flow outside quickly enough to set a good edge against that sweep
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
by rufio on Feb 10, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
During the SF game, specifically, they confused a FB leading outside on a sweep with a pulling RG. If they credit either player in that case, they are inaccurate because they are giving credit to the wrong player
Proof?
Sheard had C gap responsibility on that play, meaning he should have been playing the gap inside the TE
How do you know this? After all, isn’t the criticism here correct play diagnosis?
by The Licensed Pessimist on Feb 10, 2012 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
Why do you hold rufio to this standard and not PFF?
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Feb 11, 2012 12:11 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
why correct gap assumptions would be important to the way they compile their stats in the first place.
Have you read a single one of my posts? I ask this in all sincerity. The fact that you can’t figure out why that would be important on your own is troubling as well. Do you work for PFF?
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Feb 11, 2012 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
The problem here is they are assuming they knew what play was supposed to be run.
And from a limited sample size of me reading their stuff then re-watching the plays they were talking about, they don’t. Especially not which gaps DL are supposed to cover. They also confused a FB with a OG.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
I would think that in the cases of a LB and a DT on a team that switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 there could easily be some big swings. If they have players who stay within the same system that are getting pitched port and starboard from one year to the next, then it’s definitely time to question whether it’s a system or a random number generator.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
— Winston S. Churchill
I have the best wife - ever.
Especially when their results do not match the opinions of professionals. I don’t think many people would argue that Jake Long had a down year. I do think they would take issue with the statement that he was one of the worst tackles in football this year.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Feb 9, 2012 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
Jayme Mitchell also didn’t get many snaps.
When you consider more things from all angles, you'll get more things from all angles. We'll be kicking ourselves if we don't get Burflict.
by The New Kardiac Kids on Feb 9, 2012 12:43 AM EST reply actions
Did Marecic get any credit for catching balls out of the backfield?
I take this optimism shit seriously.
"Who gives two shits about Matt Roth besides Matt Roth and Matt Roth’s mom?" - LocalMan
by The Licensed Optimist on Feb 9, 2012 7:35 AM EST reply actions
Wait a second here. There’s a licensed pessimist AND a licensed optimist?! Mind = blown
"When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." -Paul Brown
by macdowellm03 on Feb 9, 2012 1:17 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Gocong came on quite strong in the second half of the season. No way can I say that he is the guy with the biggest drop off.
by Les Fleurs Du Mal on Feb 9, 2012 10:39 AM EST reply actions
He struggled playing the Will. When Fujita went down he played much better.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 9, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
He is a natural SLB but so is fujita. The only “natural” WLB we may have is maiava/
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Great observation Flowers of Evil (big Baudelaire fan here too). Gocong came on very strong at the end, whether it was a growing comfort level in the scheme or just more snaps as injuries took their toll I don’t know.
I’m not nearly as high on Moore as most. Maybe it’s selective memory, but I recall quite a few games where I saw real lapses of effort from the guy. I know effort is sometimes hard to accurately gauge by watching, but I saw him jogging on alot of plays where he should have been sprinting, losing focus on passes thrown to him, and giving up on blocks prematurely. I can forgive a lot of shortcomings, but lack of effort is not one of them.
I love his physical presence and the threat he potentially poses, but given his level of effort this past season, the only reason I would feel sorry to see him go is a lack of good alternatives on the roster.
I think when you see guys playing slowly and tentatively its an indication they’re not sure what to do. The more I think about it, the more I realize that was probably true for a lot of the offense, which gives me hope that with more off-season and an OC they can start to speed things up.
Which players in the offense are you referring too?
A bargain is something you don't need at a price you can't resist....
If I agreed with you we'd both be wrong!
My mother never saw the irony in calling me a son-of-a-bitch!
Once you start agreeing with TDSH, you know that you're wrong.
It seems likely to me that there’s more to it with him than just tentativeness. Two different coaching staffs have kept him on the sideline. The Packers even cut him. To me, Moore seems similar to Jerome Harrison.
by Legoman0721 on Feb 9, 2012 3:19 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Anyone in here as intrigued by Jordan Cameron as I am? I think he’s a potential addition to this passing game for 2012 without even making a move.
Steel Nick
I want to be, I just haven’t seen anything from him in terms of production at any level to warrant it. That’s not to say he can’t or won’t develop into a real threat. The low number of snaps and looks he got this year tells me he didn’t show his coaches and qb enough to trust him.
Who knows whether that was his fault or just a natural learning curve that takes time. So, while i’m not really holding my breath on a guy that’s never shown much, I do see his athletic potential and hope he can learn to apply his basketball skillset to get open and fight for the ball ala Gates & Graham
I like the upside potential. The coaching staff seemed to put him out there a lot at the end of the season (injuries played a big role in that), but I am excited to see what we do with him next season.
by Bernie19Kosar on Feb 10, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking that too.
I think mine would be more like this:
Most Improved – DQ (he showed up big even compared to his last full season he played)
Biggest Drop – Hillis/McCoy (either would take the cake on this I think)
More Snaps – I agree with Moore being on this one
"They kept throwing it at me. I don’t know why. They just kept trying, and I just kept knocking it down." -- Joe Haden
A lot of the drop off on offense was do to our run game gong to crap.
A bargain is something you don't need at a price you can't resist....
If I agreed with you we'd both be wrong!
My mother never saw the irony in calling me a son-of-a-bitch!
Once you start agreeing with TDSH, you know that you're wrong.
Biggest Drop – Hillis/McCoy (either would take the cake on this I think)
McCoy wasn’t good enough last year to be considered a drop off
by The Licensed Pessimist on Feb 9, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
I guess it just seemed like there were times he was flashing the “it” factor. I didn’t see that at all this past season.
"They kept throwing it at me. I don’t know why. They just kept trying, and I just kept knocking it down." -- Joe Haden
Good point. Even last season in the 3-4 there were plenty of plays where Tuba was shooting to the outside to make a play. I sometimes wondered if I just missed the fact that he didn’t line up at NT.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
— Winston S. Churchill
I have the best wife - ever.
For those looking for a bit more background on PFF
This ran in the WSJ online edition on the Saturday of the Super Bowl. I’d say if its good enough for the NFL team involved in the article its good enough overall….
“PFF Wall Street Journal”http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203889904577199781897959096.html?KEYWORDS=neil+hornsby
I’m trying to make this very clear: I like pro football focus. A lot. I think it’s a very valuable tool. I just don’t think we should throw it around as if it was the final say on player performance. Every system is flawed. Every stat has its shortcomings. That doesn’t mean they aren’t useful in some way.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Feb 9, 2012 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree with Moore needing more snaps. I thought this early on in the season, but when trying to keep an eye on him out on the field it seemed he just ran lazy routes. Also I can think of at least once (I know once, but he wasn’t thrown to a ton and I bet theres more) where he just lazily threw a hand up to try to catch a ball instead of trying to fight and get 2 hands in there even if that meant he fell and couldnt get any YAC. I know this is all limited, but I really feel he’d be on the field more if he was more productive. Please correct me if Im wrong, because this is based on small glimpses I remember of him out on the field later in the year. I tried to keep an eye out for him, but its easy to miss someone without the ball.
My vote for needing more snaps would either be Buster Skrine or Jordan Norwood. I would have him penciled in as the #3 guy right now unless we bring in 2 guys to start, which I am not sure we’ll see. Buster, from what I saw, had generally good coverage and was aggressive going after the ball. I’d like to see him line up on the outside more often, and hopefully start opposite of Haden.
by -bobby- on Feb 10, 2012 12:17 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Well said on Moore, I completely agree. I remember at least three awful examples of lazy routes/catches, and a couple of them were in the end zone. Extremely disappointing.
I like norwood better than any of our wrs outside of little, and skrine definitely has potential with a little added muscle and development.. It would be great if he could overtake brown on the depth chart and maybe move him to FS next to ward. I thought patterson played well enough to keep as a nickel corner as well.
Rubin plays a ton of snaps.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
Especially for a DT.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Feb 10, 2012 9:07 AM EST up reply actions
He’s in good shape for a big boy. Still sprinting around in the 4th quarter.
by Brownie's Year on Feb 10, 2012 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
It is quite impressive, but I wonder if he’d make more plays if we had better depth behind him so we could give him more breaks.
"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein
With the drop-off in talent behind him, it’s no wonder. Its a credit to Rubin though, that he pairs his talents with tremendous hustle and a good deal of football smarts. Let’s hope some of his work ethic and drive rubs off on Big Phil.
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