The Indianapolis Colts are the most difficult team in the postseason to get a pulse on. They began the season with one of the most impressive resumes in football: a 5-2 record, but three of their wins came against the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos. They then went 3-3 over their next six games, and when they lost, it wasn't even close: we're talking 30-point blowout losses. Two of the games they won during that stretch involved overcoming huge deficits. The Colts then went 3-0 to finish the season, outscoring opponents 78-20 during that stretch.
One of those three wins was a 23-7 win over the Chiefs in Week 16. That game took place in Arrowhead, and just two weeks later, the teams square off against each other again, this time in Indianapolis. The Chiefs began the season at 9-0, but were 2-5 over their final seven games to finish with the same record as Indianapolis (11-5).
Despite what happened two weeks ago, I like the Chiefs to win this game on the road. They have the right veteran quarterback to lead the team in Alex Smith, and Jamaal Charles would be the league's MVP if it weren't for Peyton Manning. The Chiefs are also set to see the return of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, their outside pass rushers who got hurt earlier this season (right around the time the Chiefs started to stumble). Andrew Luck struggled last year in the postseason, and I don't see him ready to take that jump without a receiver he can fully trust. (Of course, in Cleveland's world, Trent Richardson will probably have a career day for the Colts). Chiefs 24, Colts 20
Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts
Date/Time: Saturday, January 4, 2014 at 4:35 p.m. EST
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Television: NBC - Dan Hicks and Mike Mayock
NFL Odds: Chiefs by 1.5