FanPost

Prudent Points of Import to Promote Prosperity: Bengals (Rd 2)


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The red jersey is off for good, metaphorically speaking. Johnny Football has had a handful of NFL snaps, including one touchdown drive (or as Brian Hoyer calls them, "Septembers.") Most of his NFL action so far has come either in the preseason, or when the defense was playing fairly conservatively with a lead in the 4th quarter. Now we get to see what Johnny Football looks like when an NFL defense takes off the kid gloves. Are you as freaking excited as I am? Probably. We're all excited I bet. And I'm a pretty chill dude. But I'm definitely excited.

I'm going to focus on the progression of Johnny Football on the field, so there's probably going to be less jokes in this one. Hopefully you can tough it out and it make it through. It's worth it. Trust me; I proof read it. It's pretty good. So strap on your thinking cap. Of course, I can't be all business. I always believe in sniffing out a little fun to be had.

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Just like Ol' Johnny Boy

But this week, I am changing it up a bit. I already wrote an article poking fun at the Bengals and their questionable city, which can be found here. And I already wrote an article explaining how the Browns need to use Johnny Manziel, leading up to the Colts game (in case you missed it.) No need to beat a dead horse.

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"You rang?"

So, instead of laying out points that the team should follow, this week I'm turning my attention to you, Browns fans. I'm going to lay out some prudent points you should keep in mind as you watch Johnny Manziel in his first start this weekend and for the rest of the season, in order to avoid you looking like the fool that deep down we both know you are. Why should you listen to me? Because I accepted long ago that I was a fool, and have had time to grow into the Manly Man before you. Take heed!

1. Ignore the Stat Line

"But wait, haven't we been killing Hoyer for his monumentally awful stats over the second half of the season?"

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"Don't you mean 'our' awful stats? It takes 11 doing their job to..."

Shut up, Brian.

It's true; we have been lambasting Brian for his historically rotten stretch of quarterbacking of late. And I have no doubt some of his errant throws were the fault of Josh Gordon or Jordan Cameron or whoever else Brian threw under the bus, um, named, when talking to the press before finishing with, "but, you know, I still gotta identify that this asshole wasn't doing what he was supposed to do before I heave it into a crowd off my back foot."

On the other hand, spin his lack of starting experience however you like, Brian Hoyer was not a rookie. And at this point in the season, there were no excuses for his regression. If he was going to be the guy going forward, he had to be that guy over the last 6 weeks. And he wasn't. The fact is, Manziel gets more rope. That's not unfair; that's just how it shakes out. Hoyer is an older (sort of...maybe I'm just focusing on his hairline) vet that was undrafted and spent his career as a backup until recently. Manziel is a rookie, first-round pick that won a Heisman (for whatever that's worth), and excited the panties of many a college football fan. I'm saying it's different, and it's going to be different until Manziel has a decent amount of games under his belt (yes, more than 3. more than 4. or 5 even. Ok, I'm thinking 12 probably). And then we can start to view Manziel's numbers with the same cold, quantitative scrutiny as we have recently viewed Hoyer's.

In the meantime, fans need to try to focus on how Manziel looks throughout the game, not how his numbers look after the game.

2. Show me them guns

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Brady Quinn showing us the pinnacle of his athletic achievement

Manziel's arm looked pretty decent on a limited amount of throws against Buffalo, and looked shaky on some deeper throws in the preseason. Part of the problem that I personally have had with Brian Hoyer's play this year has been his deep balls. We can look at the numbers that say he was one of the better deep ball passers in the league this year, although I'm sure that stat has declined since we haven't had as many wide open receivers standing around waiting on a pass lately. On those times that the receivers weren't so open that he could have punted it to them, Hoyer's accuracy and deep ball ability was an issue. The general consensus is that Johnny Manziel has a stronger arm than Brian Hoyer, but personally I have small concerns that I would love to see simply exposed as my inner Manziel-hater. I never thought his arm has looked that spectacular. It's ok from what I've seen, but he is going to need to make the big boy throws at this level, and until I see it with some consistency, I will remain reasonably skeptical.

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It's been my nature as long as I can remember

To use my boy Derek Carr as an example, here are some throws I'd love to see Johnny make. Carr has plenty of detractors, but I'm using some of his throws because I've watched him a lot this year, he's also a rookie, but has displayed the ability to make some great NFL throws that Manziel will need to make to have sustained success. These are not necessarily the best/most difficult passes you'll ever see, but they are placed where the receiver can make a play, the ball gets there quickly enough, and the receiver is able to catch the ball without having to significantly alter their stride. Also, they are mostly vertical throws down the sideline, the types of throws that Hoyer doesn't have the combination of accuracy and arm strength required to make with regularity. Does Johnny? We'll see. I hope so. You have to be able to throw the ball downfield in this offense. (I'm not sure what the official definition of "downfield" is, but for my purposes it is throws more than 15-20 yards past the LOS.)

Again, I would like to point out that I don't have the first clue about how to scout or analyze QB play other than my own personal feelings on what I think are important traits. I could be viewing this all wrong. But I think I do alright.

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Here's a throw I'd love to see from Johnny Football to Flash Gordon.

This plays shows the ability to place the ball downfield in a spot where the receiver can go up and get the ball, while only having to make minimal adjustments to be in position to go up and make a play on it. As an added benefit to being extremely hard to defend, this type of throw often gets you some defensive pass interference calls as well. Also, it would be great to see Flash go up and get a ball like this instead of catching it at waist or chest level as we so often see.

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Here's another example of the same throw.

Beautiful. Enough zip on it that a single-high safety has almost zero chance to affect the outcome of the play once the ball is out of the QB's hand.

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Here is a throw from the Raider's preseason game against Seattle. The receiver, Denarius Moore, is very open, but notice how Carr does a good job of moving up in the pocket to avoid pressure, and hits Moore in stride.

For this next one, there is no doubt that this is exactly the type of throw we hope to see Manziel making with regularity. Bullet to the sideline on a PA rollout.

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Notice how, unlike what we've often seen from Hoyer and Manziel, Carr sets his feet and really steps into this throw? Johnny can make a living off this. That pigskin has some goddamn mustard on it.

One more. Really like this one.

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This final one is another example of using arm strength and accuracy to place a ball where only the receiver has a chance to make a play, this time in the red zone.

Johnny doesn't need to be able to make the gloves on receivers' hands disintegrate upon impact, but having enough throwing power will afford him the chance to make some of these types of throws consistently. If his arm is strong enough to get the ball to his receivers downfield without having to put everything he's got into it, he can be more accurate and will really terrify defenses when he moves around. It's one thing to be able to move outside the pocket, it's another to be able to move, and once you see an opening, have the arm to get to a receiver that comes open down the field when the defense starts to break down.

3. Confident feet

Johnny Football electrifies with his improvisation. We all know that. We all want to see it. But we also need to see him display confidence with his feet. By that, I mean he needs to trust that proper footwork will alleviate some of the instances in which he needs to go all backyard-scramble on us.

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This play would have turned out okay if Agnew comes down with the ball, but does Manziel turn and leave the pocket too soon? Is it the right thing to do, or is it just more comfortable for Johnny?

There aren't a lot of gifs available of Johnny's throws for the Browns. I wanted to find a few from the preseason, but that didn't pan out. Here, against New Orleans in Week 2, it's hard to know exactly what he's seeing downfield, but if he waited another second before taking off, he may have been able to hit Agnew in the flat while Agnew still had room to run. I'm not really blaming Manziel here; a rusher comes free after looping around the interior of the O-line, but I want to see how Manziel reacts in these type of situations over the next few weeks. People love Manziel's ability to get away from defenders in the pocket, but I feel he sometimes likes to turn and run before it's necessary.

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This play ended well, but all the "Johnny magic" was completely unnecessary.

Here's an example. About three and a half seconds into this play, a receiver comes running horizontally on a drag route onto the left side of the screen at the 5 yard line. If Johnny throws it, it's a walk-in touchdown. He still has a great pocket when he starts to take off. Yes, his moving around caused the defenders to lose track of the player that catches the touchdown pass, but Manziel has to trust his protection and the play call more than this at the NFL level. He can't be of the mindset that the play will only work if he moves around enough to get guys open. He's got to trust that Shanny is going to call plays that will get guys open, then see it and let it rip. If that's not there, then hell yes, run around like a spaz and do your thing.

4. Avoid the stupid shit

Look, I have no problem with Manziel making some mistakes. We have to expect it. He's a rookie. His play style is erratic at times, and it makes him who he is. He plays with a certain...god forgive me...swagger. He believes he can make plays and isn't afraid to put his neck out there. That's great. But, he has to be disciplined in his chaos. He can't be too risk averse, however, (although I really, really doubt that will be an issue with Johnny Football), because I want him to trust that he can get the ball where it needs to be. He'll learn what he can and can't do, which balls he can and can't throw. But he doesn't need to be overly reliant on in his play-making ability to the point he stops playing within the scheme and allows that to switch his brain to full-on dummy mode.

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In case you needed a reference point of what "full-on dummy mode" looks like

I think there are usually two kinds of bad plays for rookie quarterbacks. It's similar to young dogs and cats. There are the "and now you know you can't do that" moments they can learn from:

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Porcupines: Putting that one in the "no" column

And then there are "what the hell were you thinking" moments that are dumb regardless of experience-level. Johnny has had a few of those in his time. Let's take a peek at an example or two.

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I would have kicked him in the balls as he came off the field.

Did Johnny decide he had other places to be halfway into this play? What the hell is he doing? That throw is awful. It actually looks like his receiver is trying to cover the defensive back. The only way his little strut after he releases this pass is ok would be if he immediately knew it was going to be an interception and he's taking a mini-walk of shame.

Either this receiver needs to have his scholarship taken away, or it's a ball Manziel cannot throw. We haven't had a QB that can throw a decent fade in a while. That is not a step in the right direction.

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Here (above) is an example of Manziel trying to force the ball to his favorite target. Evans is a great talent, just like Josh Gordon is, but Manziel has to trust the other guys on the field to make plays. In this gif, if Johnny throws the ball to #84 as he is going into his break, it's an easy first down. Instead, he tries to get the ball to Evans, who is covered. Evans had such great size and ability that Manziel could sometimes get away with throws like this. Won't be the case in the NFL the majority of the time, regardless of the attributes of the intended target. Take what's there, Johnny.

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I got nothing. Don't do this. Just don't.

These things are hopefully just manifestations of a young player with lots of success learning the hard way, and not symptomatic of the player we can expect. His "wild" streak can be titillating, but plays like this, in which the QB walks away from a pass like he just hit a game-winning three pointer as time expires, or almost throwing the dumbest interception possible, can be pretty deflating. Keep the confidence; lose the arrogance.

Johnny is no doubt a smart guy. He is good in a press conference. He knows what he is doing off the field.

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On the field...not even God knows what this boy is doing sometimes.

It also isn't that difficult to see how someone with his level of success on the collegiate level would have a bit of an ego. That's fine, I just hope the rumors about him being a quiet professional inside the Brown's practice facility are true, and not just things the Browns are pushing now that Manziel is in the driver seat.

The three games left in the regular season should give us a glimpse into where Johnny Manziel is, and how he deals with the ups and downs will give us a glimpse into who he is. Is he the finger-rubbing, smack-talking douche many love to hate, or is he the electrifying player we saw in college with some new-found maturation? We'll find out. Honestly, I didn't want to draft Johnny Manziel. I'm a man, so I don't want to talk behind Johnny's back. Someone forward this to him.

JFF, I didn't want my favorite team to draft you. I'm not being a dick here, just trying to come clean. Honesty and trust are the foundations of lasting relationships. I never thought your ceiling was that high at the NFL level. I hope I'm wrong, but I thought you were too risky, Johnny. I'm not risk averse (I wanted Carr for pete's sake), and it's not that I thought you were too risky in a "but he's so unruly!" way, but more in a way of, if we're going to take a risk on a guy with loads of talent but some big question marks, for me that guy was Derek Carr all day long. I just don't know about you, Johnny Boy. I can tell your a smart guy, but I can't tell if your smarts allows you to get away with being a douche, or if you're using it to troll all of us into making you the most anticipated college quarterback since the last time there was a really anticipated college quarterback (so, what, like, two years maybe?).

Either way, you're now the quarterback of the Browns. We are all excited to watch and cheer and overreact and debate. Hopefully fans will remember that you're a rookie, that you're going to make mistakes, and that we are in your corner. Hopefully you'll remember those things as well. Good luck, Johnny, I'm rooting for you.

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Oh, don't patronize me, asshole.

Go Browns.

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