Just got a chance to catch up on some draft prospects, and to be honest - the more I look at the big 3 QBs, the less I like them. So I put together a list of what I do not like about them, and have some predictions on what will happen in the 2014. Apologies in advance - got my 5 predictions but they are all related on these facts:
- These QBs as a group are risky with no true stud in the mold of Luck etc.
- There have been only 3 occasions where 3 QBs went in the first 8 picks. Never have all 3 been very good QBs, featuring Plunkett, Archie Manning, and Pastorini in 1971, the infamous Couch, Akili Smith, and McNabb draft of 1999, and the 2012 draft with Luck, RGIII, and Tannehill. I have sort of written off Tannehill at this point and that may be unfair.
- The Browns 2012 first round was an absolute disaster. Some folks think it is very likely that Mingo is a bust. I am going to guess that Farmer will be risk averse with that first pick. He is an sharp guy, and he doesn't want a roster with no first round talent from 2012 thru 2014.
Now here is my beef with the QBs:
- Teddy Bridgewater. Love the guy. Love how his leadership comes across in huddles, interviews etc. I got bad news for you - contrary to popular belief, he can't make all the throws. The ball will flutter on the out route on the lakefront. In my mind, he has gone from someone I was Jonesing to get to someone I hope we pass on. Good news for him - I have no training as a scout and am likely wrong.
- Blake Bortles. He is my new number 1 QB. He has the size, plus athleticism, and attributes. Everyone says he is raw His mom just called to say he is raw. They say his arm will be really good when he develops his mechanics. That bothers me a little. Talking heads make it sound like you can take these guys to Grease Monkey - hook him up to a diagnostic center - and fix him. Tim Tebow is a damn fine athlete. Over 20 years and counting and still no "fixed mechanics". Still - he represents the safest QB pick in the draft IMHO.
- JF. (Read this in your inner Jim Rome voice) Electric. Playmaker. Short. No Vick speed. Short No Cannon. Short. If we get this guy - I will be so geeked. But to me, he is the ultimate risk reward guy - I am afraid to pick him and afraid to pass him up. His measurables = 3rd round and his playmaking says 3rd overall. But again - I don't think Farmer takes the risk.
So here are my predictions:
- Not all of these 3 QBs will be taken in the first 8 picks.
- These 3 QBs will not be the first 3 QBs selected. I am predicting one falls, and Carr jumps ahead of one of them.
- The Browns will pass on either JF or TB with the number 4 overall pick. They would select BB (and or possibly Carr) there.
- Because they may only see BB as a possibility - they will trade up in the draft or die trying. If they love Carr they will hold at 4.
- Regardless - Bryan Hoyer is your starting QB in 2014.