My comrades in misery,
Im always reading, but rarely posting.
I have a pretty serious problem with Fanspeak.
I find myself running the simulation instead of doing things like working, taking out the trash or washing dishes. I feel like around the 50th time I ran the simulation, my philosophy started to shift from taking the players who filled the biggest needs on our team, to maximizing the value of the 10 picks. This lead me away from taking a qb at the top of the draft, and looking at impact players at different position who may be all pros that would generally increase the talent level of the team.
Really, in this draft, picking at 4 is pretty good spot. I feel that there are 7 top tier players. Clowney, Teddy, Bortles, Mathews, Robinson, Watkins, and Mack. At 4, at least one of the Non Tackles is going to be available. I dont think our board will include those guys. So you are looking at Bortles, Teddy, Clowney, and Mack.
I guess it depends on what you think about Teddy Bridgewater. If you feel like he is the Franchise, and he falls to 4, it makes sense to take him. Im not really convinced. Im not rufio or anything, but the more tape that I watch on him the more I feel like im looking at Geno Smith. He looks better in the pocket, but he doesnt WOW you with his physical attributes. He seems like at QB with an average ceiling. Bortles, seems like the biggest risk at the top of the draft. He certainly looks the part. He stands tall and delivers. I just dont feel like he dominates his competition like you'd expect from a top 4 pick.
I just dont see the value with him at 4 that some do. There are so many good receivers in this class. While he is probably the best, im not really sure how much better he is than his teammate Bryant. I cant really see drafting a #2 at 4.
Mack or Clowney:
Watching Mack on film is a thing of beauty. He seems like the best player on the field on either side of the ball. Even though Clowney is a once in a generation type athlete, Mack looks like that protypical dominate player who would be the lynchpin of a defense for years. I think that represents the best present and long term value. If they went with Clowney, I get the sense that Pettine would be the type of coach to get the best from him. I would not knock this pick.
So by now, after a couple hundred simulations, I feel like the best drafts I have made have been the ones where I looked first at value, then need. However, the Browns have a serious need a Quarterback.
Once you give up on taking on at the top of the draft, you have to look later on at ones who jump out as potential sleepers. I dont like McCarron,or Mettenberger, Carr will probably be over drafted. I think Garropolo will also be over drafted. Logan Thomas for all that talent might be the worst decision maker I have ever seen.
I like Boyd -- Late. I think that people are sleeping on Taj. Someone will steal him in the 6th, and he is an intriguing prospect to be sure.
But the one that I have fallen in love with is Brett Smith. That guy is a MONSTER. He has some funky hitches in his delivery, but he is great in the pocket, buys himself time with his feet and when he decided to put the ball down field, it gets there in a hurry. Let a guy like this develop for a year and see where you are.
Check out his you tube and tell me what you think: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vetTlu5FpFo