(I've been walking the streets at night, just trying to get it right)
A little patience, yeah (It's hard to see with so many around. You know I don't like being stuck in the crowd)
Could use some patience, yeah (And the streets don't change but maybe the names)
(I ain't got time for the game 'cause I need you)
Gotta have more patience, yeah (Yeah, yeah but I need you)
All need some patience (Ooh I need you, whoa I need you)
Just a little patience is all you need (Ooh, this time, ah)
- - Guns N' Roses 1989
Brett Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Zach Mettenberger. Let's face it. Every one of the top six QB's has some serious questions to his game. Each candidate carries legitimate questions as to whether he can really become at least a capable NFL starter. Poor footwork, inability to read the field, too short, too light, too immobile, too mobile, weak arm, poor accuracy, character defects, light competition... unfortunately, some combination applies to each draftable QB this year. It did not apply, however, to the 2011 draft where Andrew Luck and RGIII were consensus top flight QB prospects and have arguably have proven their worth in the NFL. Just our luck.
The pressure to draft a QB with at least one of the two first round picks is enormous. This team is prepped and ready to win now. Several free agency signings over the age of 30 were added to the roster. Alex Mack was retained at high cost at least in part to help shepherd a potential rookie QB through his first season. The team, the management, the owner, and city are flat starving for success. The culture of losing ultimately can only be cured by winning.
The perils of reaching for a QB early have been well documented. The success rate of QB's taken in the first round hovers stubbornly around 50%. Even with the best talent evaluators in the world, with jobs on the line, success is nothing more than a coin flip.
For these reasons, I recommend keeping emotions to the side, taking the best position players available with the first two picks, and at the earliest, consider drafting whichever QB falls to us at 35. Holding off until the top of the third round risks being left with McCarron on down, as non-QB needy teams start considering QB's later in the second.
For example, running through several draft simulations, first and second round pick combinations like Watkins-Dennard-Garoppolo or Mack-Beckham-Bridgewater are likely to be better than Manziel-Cooks-Jean-Baptiste or Carr-Roby-Allen Robinson. #4 should be an immediate starter with Pro Bowl potential, #26 should be an immediate starter, and #35 a hopeful starter in the first year.
If the QB choice doesn't wow you, consider taking multiple bites at the apple. With surplus picks this year and not that many holes to fill, I don't see a problem with taking two or even three in this draft. Players like Brett Smith, Tom Savage, Aaron Murray, or Logan Thomas might surprise. Be humble and let the pure numbers approach work for you.