FanPost

Grading the Cleveland Browns Drafts with Draft Efficiency Rating System


Since the rebirth of the Cleveland Browns in 1999 we have seen a variety of GM's botch drafts to one degree or another. I am of the opinion that our best drafting has occurred since Tom Heckert took over in 2010, with the exception of the 2013 draft, and that is what is laying the foundation for our future success. A recent article on draft regrades by Bucky Brooks gave the Brown's 2011 draft a grade of C+. This seemed a little low to me since that draft gave us 4 current starters of pretty good quality in Jordan Cameron, Jabaal Sheard, Phil Taylor and Buster Skrine as well as a capable backup and previous starter Jason Pinkston.

I decided to devise my own draft grading system that would essentially grade on a curve taking into consideration what draft capital a team spent compared to the value that they purchased. I drew on two statistical works from Pro-Football Reference.com. The first is the AV rating or Approximate Value which seeks to give each season that a player plays a numerical value and a career AV that weights the individual seasons. Chase Stuart developed a draft value chart by looking at every draft from 1970-99 and the player value drafted at each position to come up with an AV for each draft position from 1-224. The intent was to develop a draft value chart of the approximate career AV that each draft slot would yield. I used these values for my formula, expressed as a percentage, which I call Draft Efficiency(DE):

Draft Efficiency=(Career AV/Expected AV)*100

Let's look at Tim Couch as an example. Drafted first overall his expected career AV is 73 but the actual AV from his injury shortened career was 30. This gives the draft of Tim Couch a Draft Efficiency of 41.1%. The entire set of picks from the 1999 draft had an expected AV of 219. Only 3 of the 11 players drafted reached or exceeded their expected AV (Kevin Johnson, Daylon McCutcheon, Wali Rainer) and the total career AV received from that draft was 143 making the Draft Efficiency of Dwight Clark's first draft of the "New Browns" a very disappointing 65.7%.

My draft grades have built in the expectation of full value (100% Draft Efficiency) being the average. I assigned the following letter grades to draft classes:

Grade Draft Efficieny
A >140
B 115-140
C 85-115
D 60-85
F

It does not matter if all of the career AV accrued to the Browns it is included in the tables. The following tables are the Browns drafts with Dwight Clark as GM.

Player year Pos Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency Grade
Tim Couch 1999 QB 1 1 73 30 41.1%
Kevin Johnson 1999 WR 2 32 30 32 106.7%
Rahim Abdullah 1999 LB 2 45 25 6 24.0%
Daylon McCutcheon 1999 DB 3 62 21 35 166.7%
Marquis Smith 1999 DB 3 76 19 7 36.8%
Wali Rainer 1999 LB 4 124 13 26 200.0%
Darrin Chiaverini 1999 WR 5 148 10 5 50.0%
Marcus Spriggs 1999 DT 6 174 8 2 25.0%
Kendall Ogle 1999 LB 6 187 7 0 0.0%
James Dearth 1999 TE 6 191 7 0 0.0%
Madre Hill 1999 RB 7 207 6 0 0.0%
Totals 1999 219 143 65.3% D
Courtney Brown 2000 DE 1 1 73 28 38.4%
Dennis Northcutt 2000 WR 2 32 30 41 136.7%
Travis Prentice 2000 RB 3 63 21 4 19.0%
JaJuan Dawson 2000 WR 3 79 18 5 27.8%
Lewis Sanders 2000 DB 4 95 16 14 87.5%
Aaron Shea 2000 TE 4 110 14 6 42.9%
Anthony Malbrough 2000 DB 5 130 12 1 8.3%
Lamar Chapman 2000 DB 5 146 10 1 10.0%
Spergon Wynn 2000 QB 6 183 8 2 25.0%
Brad Bedell 2000 T 6 206 6 5 83.3%
Manuia Savea 2000 G 7 207 6 0 0.0%
Eric Chandler 2000 DE 7 209 6 0 0.0%
Rashidi Barnes 2000 DB 7 225 6 1 16.7%
Totals 2000 226 108 47.8% F
Gerard Warren 2001 DT 1 3 59 52 88.1%
Quincy Morgan 2001 WR 2 33 29 20 69.0%
James Jackson 2001 RB 3 65 21 9 42.9%
Anthony Henry 2001 DB 4 97 16 41 256.3%
Jeremiah Pharms 2001 WB 5 134 12 0 0.0%
Michael Jamison 2001 DB 6 165 9 3 33.3%
Paul Zukauskas 2001 G 7 203 6 9 150.0%
Andre King 2001 WR 7 245 4 2 50.0%
Totals 2001 156 136 87.2% C
Dwight Clark Totals 601 387 64.4% D

It is easy to see why the how the foundation for futility was set. Clark managed to get a return of under 65 cents on the dollar with more draft capital to spend than any other GM since 1999. After the 2001 season Clark was fired and Butch Davis assumed the GM role as well as HC. Butch's gut feelings resulted in the following drafts:

Player year Pos Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency Grade
William Green 2002 RB 1 16 38 14 36.8%
Andre Davis 2002 WR 2 47 25 24 96.0%
Melvin Fowler 2002 C 3 76 19 24 126.3%
Kevin Bentley 2002 LB 4 101 15 22 146.7%
Ben Taylor 2002 LB 4 111 14 14 100.0%
Darnell Sanders 2002 TE 4 122 13 1 7.7%
Andra Davis 2002 LB 5 141 11 46 418.2%
Joaquin Gonzalez 2002 T 7 227 5 9 180.0%
Totals 2002 140 154 110.0% C
Jeff Faine 2003 C 1 21 35 45 128.6%
Chaun Thompson 2003 LB 2 52 23 17 73.9%
Chris Crocker 2003 DB 3 84 17 42 247.1%
Lee Suggs 2003 RB 4 115 13 8 61.5%
Ryan Pontbriand 2003 C 5 142 11 8 72.7%
Michael Lehan 2003 DB 5 152 10 11 110.0%
Antonio Garay 2003 DE 6 195 7 14 200.0%
Totals 2003 116 145 125.0% B
Kellen Winslow 2004 TE 1 6 51 36 70.6%
Sean Jones 2004 DB 2 59 22 33 150.0%
Luke McKown 2004 QB 4 106 15 7 46.7%
Amon Gordon 2004 DT 5 161 9 5 55.6%
Kirk Chambers 2004 T 6 176 8 9 112.5%
A. Echemandu 2004 RB 7 208 6 1 16.7%
Totals 2004 111 91 82.0% D
Butch Davis Totals 367 390 106.3% C

Whatever your opinion of Butch he had some of the more successful drafts. More than 50% of the players drafted by Butch, 11 of 21, returned full value. Fifth round pick Andra Davis had a career AV of 46, equivalent to the ninth overall pick in the draft, great value in the fifth round.

Phil Savage assumed the GM role after Butch stepped down. Some of the players in these tables are still active most notably Joe Thomas, D'Qwell Jackson and Ahtyba Rubin. Phil's drafts are presented in the tables below.

Player year Pos Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency Grade
Braylon Edwards 2005 WR 1 3 59 41 69.5%
Brodney Pool 2005 DB 2 34 29 29 100.0%
Charlie Frye 2005 QB 3 67 20 8 40.0%
Antonio Perkins 2005 DB 4 103 15 0 0.0%
David McMillan 2005 DE 5 139 11 2 18.2%
Nick Speegle 2005 LB 6 176 8 1 12.5%
Andrew Hoffman 2005 DT 6 203 6 0 0.0%
Jon Dunn 2005 T 7 217 5 0 0.0%
Totals 153 81 52.9% F
Kamerion Wimbley 2006 DE 1 13 41 43 104.9%
D'Qwell Jackson 2006 LB 2 34 29 46 158.6%
Travis Wilson 2006 WR 3 78 18 0 0.0%
Leon Williams 2006 LB 4 110 14 9 64.3%
Isaac Sowells 2006 T 4 112 14 1 7.1%
Jerome Harrison 2006 RB 5 145 11 13 118.2%
Demario Minter 2006 DB 5 152 10 0 0.0%
Lawrence Vickers 2006 FB 6 180 8 3 37.5%
B Oshinowo 2006 DT 6 181 8 0 0.0%
Justin Hamilton 2006 RB 7 222 5 0 0.0%
Totals 158 115 72.8% D
Joe Thomas 2007 T 1 3 59 59 100.0%
Brady Quinn 2007 QB 1 22 34 2 5.9%
Eric Wright 2007 DB 2 53 23 33 143.5%
Brandon McDonald 2007 DB 5 140 11 15 136.4%
Melila Purcell 2007 DE 6 200 7 0 0.0%
Chase Pittman 2007 DE 7 213 6 0 0.0%
Syndric Steptoe 2007 WR 7 234 4 1 25.0%
Totals 144 110 76.4% D
Beau Bell 2008 LB 4 104 15 0 0.0%
Martin Rucker 2008 TE 4 111 14 0 0.0%
Ahtyba Rubin 2008 DT 6 190 7 30 428.6%
Paul Hubbard 2008 WR 6 191 7 0 0.0%
Alex Hall 2008 LB 7 231 5 4 80.0%
Totals 48 34 70.8% D
Phil Savage Totals 503 340 67.6% D

Joe Thomas already accounts for more than half the value of the '07 draft and will likely end up with a HOF career AV of around 100 bringing that draft up to a C. Rubin will account for over 90% of the value in the '08 draft and bring that grade up to a C and has an outside shot of bringing it up to a B. The remainder of DQ's career will likely not affect the D Grade of the '06 class. Overall the active players are unlikely to accumulate enough AV to change Savage's overall D grade.

Savage left the cupboard pretty bare. Out of 30 draft picks in his 4 years 19 of them did not accrue enough career value to warrant a 7th round pick. That is nearly 2 out of 3 picks that shouldn't have been drafted at all!! This group includes a first round pick, Brady Quinn, that accrued a Career AV of 2. Ahtyba Rubin stands out as the best value pick since '99, currently having returned 428% of the value of his draft position.

I will include one more draft in this piece, the Mangini draft of '09 with it's infamous second round.

Player year Pos Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency Grade
Alex Mack 2009 C 1 21 35 30 85.7%
Brian Robiskie 2009 WR 2 36 28 3 10.7%
Mohamed Massaquoi 2009 WR 2 50 24 13 54.2%
David Veikune 2009 LB 2 52 23 1 4.3%
Kaluka Maiava 2009 LB 4 104 15 12 80.0%
Don Carey 2009 DB 6 177 8 8 100.0%
Coye Francies 2009 DB 6 191 7 1 14.3%
James Davis 2009 RB 6 195 7 1 14.3%
Mangini Totals 147 69 46.9% F

Four of the eight players drafted that year had career AV's less than a 7th rounder and unbelievably 2 of those were drafted in the 2nd round. Alex Mack is the only active player likely to contribute significant AV. Maiva will probably add a few points and I'm not sure if MoMass and Robo are officially out of football yet but they are unlikely to add much. Mack may be able to push this grade up to a D from an F.

In Part Two of this series we will look at the Heckert and Lombardi drafts to date and some ways that we can see what the eventual value of these drafts will be.

This is a fan-created post. Dawgs By Nature assumes no responsibility for the content listed.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Dawgs By Nature

You must be a member of Dawgs By Nature to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Dawgs By Nature. You should read them.

Join Dawgs By Nature

You must be a member of Dawgs By Nature to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Dawgs By Nature. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker