FanPost

Cleveland Browns 2010 Draft compared to the AFC North


This is Part Two of a series about Drafting Efficiency based on the Draft Efficiency Formula that I developed the formula is outlined in Part One. In this part we will look at the 2010 draft of Tom Heckert. Obviously these drafts are incomplete as many of the best players from these drafts are at the very beginning of what could be long careers with an opportunity to add significantly to their AV. We will look at the Browns 2010 draft in comparison to other teams in the AFC North to gauge how we are competing at drafting players that will form the nucleus of our team and our divisional rivals.

Player year Pos Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency YR1 Draft Eff YR2 Draft Eff YR3 Draft Eff
Joe Haden 2010 DB 1 7 49 24 49.0% 5 12 17
TJ Ward 2010 DB 2 38 27 24 88.9% 7 11 17
Montario Hardesty 2010 RB 2 59 22 4 18.2% 2 4 4
Colt McCoy 2010 QB 3 85 17 11 64.7% 5 11 11
Shawn Lauvao 2010 G 3 92 16 16 100.0% 1 6 13
Larry Asante 2010 DB 5 160 9 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Carlton Mitchell 2010 WR 6 177 8 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Clifton Geathers 2010 DE 6 186 7 2 28.6% 0 0 1
155 81 52.3% 20 44 63
12.9% 28.4% 40.6%

This table shows the 2010 draft to date and the Efficiency % at the end of each of the first 3 seasons. Obviously TJ Ward and Joe Haden will contribute significantly to this draft grade over the years. Shawn Lauvao has already returned full value on his draft position and TJ will exceed his value barring injury this year. Joe Haden will likely exceed his value also it will just take a few years due to his high draft slot. Other than those 3 none of the others appear to offer any significant upside to the value they currently have so 5 of the 8 players drafted will likely not give a return equal to their draft slot. Comparing this draft to the Browns drafts of 1999-2009 in terms of Draft Efficiency after year 3 it falls in sixth place just behind the '99 draft which finished with a D grade and 65.3% Efficiency rating and just ahead of the '06 draft which finished with a D grade on 72.3% efficiency with 2 players still active (DQ and K Wimbley) which are unlikely to alter the final grade. This draft will likely end with a D grade although there is a chance it could improve to C with a great career from Joe Haden. To make it a B would require great careers (and long careers) for both Haden and Ward as well as 5-7 more years for Lauvao as a starting OL in the league. I think that scenario is pretty unlikely. Ward is likely to injury prone and plays with to much disregard for his body to have a long career and Shawn Lauvao is, well he's Shawn Lauvao.

How did the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers drafts of 2010 turn out compared to ours?

Player year Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency YR1 Draft Eff YR2 Draft Eff YR3 Draft Eff
Gresham 2010 1 21 35 19 54.3% 4 9 16
Dunlap 2010 2 54 23 18 78.3% 2 4 9
Shipley 2010 3 84 17 7 41.2% 5 5 7
B Ghee 2010 3 96 16 2 12.5% 0 1 1
G Atkins 2010 4 120 13 38 292.3% 2 16 29
Muckelroy 2010 4 131 12 0 0.0% 0 0 0
O Hudson 2010 5 152 10 0 0.0% 0 0 0
D Briscoe 2010 6 191 7 0 0.0% 0 0 0
R Stephens 2010 7 228 5 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Totals 138 84 60.9% 13 35 62
9.4% 25.4% 44.9%

The Browns are a little behind the Bengals. Almost half of the Bengals draft has returned no value whatsoever and only 33% appear likely to return full value Gresham, Dunlap and Geno Atkins. Atkins has already returned almost 3 times his draft position value and may exceed his draft value by 1000% before he is done. He is mainly responsible for this likely being an A or B graded draft. While the Bengals had 10% less draft capital than the Browns in 2010 they have already seen a return that exceeds ours by almost 5%. The Ravens however are a different story.

Player year Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency YR1 Draft Eff YR2 Draft Eff YR3 Draft Eff
S Kindle 2010 2 43 26 0 0.0% 0 0 0
T Cody 2010 2 57 22 12 54.5% 1 8 11
E Dickson 2010 3 70 20 10 50.0% 1 6 8
D Pitta 2010 4 114 14 11 78.6% 0 4 10
D Reed 2010 5 156 10 2 20.0% 1 1 2
A Jones 2010 5 157 10 14 140.0% 0 2 7
R Hardwood 2010 6 194 7 2 28.6% 0 2 2
Totals 109 51 46.8% 3 23 40
2.8% 21.1% 36.7%

This may be Ozzie's worst draft. The swing and miss on Sergio Kindle really hurts this draft. Arthur Jones has already surpassed his value and Pitta and Dickson will likely also but it is hard to envision this draft rising above a C and it may end up being a D.

Player year Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency YR1 Draft Eff YR2 Draft Eff YR3 Draft Eff
M Poucey 2010 1 18 37 35 94.6% 13 26 35
J Worilds 2010 2 52 23 15 65.2% 2 7 10
E Sanders 2010 3 82 18 16 88.9% 3 5 10
T Gibson 2010 4 116 13 0 0.0% 0 0 0
C Scott 2010 5 151 10 4 40.0% 0 0 4
C Butler 2010 5 164 9 1 11.1% 0 0 0
S Sylvester 2010 5 166 9 5 55.6% 1 3 4
J Dwyer 2010 6 188 7 8 114.3% 0 1 6
A Brown 2010 6 195 7 31 442.9% 2 12 19
D Worthington 2010 7 242 4 0 0.0% 0 0 0
137 115 83.9% 21 54 88
15.3% 39.4% 64.2%

Sadly the Steelers had the best draft in the AFC North in 2010 with good value in the top and bottom of the draft. Antonio Brown has already returned in excess of 4 times his draft position already returning the value of a low first round selection. This draft will eventually grade out as an A or at the very least a B. If you are keeping score at home 2010 in terms of Draft Efficiency 1) Steelers 2) Bengals 3) Browns 4) Ravens.

I wanted to look at one other team the SB champion Seattle Seahawks. 2010 was John Schneider's first draft and I thought it would be good to compare the drafts of the team everyone seems to want to emulate these days.

Player year Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency YR1 Draft Eff YR2 Draft Eff YR3 Draft Eff
R Okung 2010 1 6 51 21 41.2% 4 8 19
E Thomas 2010 1 14 40 39 97.5% 7 18 30
G Tate 2010 2 60 22 21 95.5% 2 5 13
W Thurmond 2010 4 111 14 5 35.7% 1 2 3
EJ Wilson 2010 4 127 12 0 0.0% 0 0 0
K Chancellor 2010 5 133 12 26 216.7% 1 10 18
A McCoy 2010 6 185 7 4 57.1% 0 1 4
D Davis 2010 7 236 4 1 25.0% 1 1 1
J Konz 2010 7 245 4 0 0.0% 0 0 0
Totals 166 117 70.5% 16 45 88
9.6% 27.1% 53.0%

This draft would rank above the Bengals but lower than the Steelers draft of 2010 but in the end I think it may give more value than any of the AFC North drafts. The interesting thing is the number of impact players taken. The career AV expected for a first round pick is 30-73 and the career AV for a second round pick is between 21 and 29. The Seahawks already have 4 players from this draft that have attained a second round or greater value and after this season all of those will be at or near first round value. By comparison the Steelers have 2 (both first round values Pouncey, Brown) the Browns have 2(both round 2 value), the Bengals have 1(first round) and the Ravens none. The Seahawks managed to draft almost as many players(4) that returned second round or greater value after 4 seasons as the entire AFC North(5).

This is a fan-created post. Dawgs By Nature assumes no responsibility for the content listed.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Dawgs By Nature

You must be a member of Dawgs By Nature to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Dawgs By Nature. You should read them.

Join Dawgs By Nature

You must be a member of Dawgs By Nature to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Dawgs By Nature. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker