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Grading the 2011 Drafts of the AFC North

One note I wanted to mention when looking at the Draft grading system I have devised is the distribution of grades. When you read most analyst draft grades it seems like there are equal amounts of ABC grades and one or two D or F Grades. I have intended these grades to be more Bell curve shaped with 2-3 A,F grades and 4-6 B,D grades and the majority of drafts would receive a C grade. If a C is average it seems to me most drafts should be a C.


I have felt for sometime the foundation for the Browns returning to relevance was laid in the Heckert drafts. We acquired a lot of depth and a few good pieces in those drafts although not the main piece. The 2011 draft, in my opinion, was his best.

Player year Pos Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Eff Yr 1 Yr 2
Phil Taylor 2011 DL 1 21 35 17 48.6% 8 12
Jabaal Sheard 2011 DL 2 37 28 22 78.6% 9 17
Greg Little 2011 WR 2 59 22 12 54.5% 5 10
Jordan Cameron 2011 TE 4 102 15 8 53.3% 0 2
Owen Marecic 2011 RB 4 124 13 0 0.0% 0 0
Buster Skrine 2011 DB 5 137 11 10 90.9% 2 5
Jason Pinkston 2011 OL 5 150 10 9 90.0% 5 8
Eric Hagg 2011 DB 7 248 4 3 75.0% 1 3
Totals 138 81 58.7% 30 57
21.7% 41.3%

This draft has had 3 full years to evaluate and it looks to be one of the best of the "New Browns" era. Compared to the Draft Efficiency after 3 years this draft ranks ahead of all Browns drafts since 1999. It also ranks ahead of the Seahawks 2010 draft and all of the AFC North 2010 drafts with the exception of the Steelers. It should continue to add significant value this year with Taylor, Sheard, Cameron and Skrine all being contributors at a level that may exceed last year. Four of the eight selected will have returned full value or very close to it after 4 seasons. This draft seems likely to be a solid B with an outside shot to be an A.

How did the Steelers follow up their division best 2010 draft?

Player year Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency YR1 Draft Eff YR2 Draft Eff
C Heyward 2011 1 31 30 11 36.7% 2 4
M Gilbert 2011 2 63 21 15 71.4% 6 8
C Brown 2011 3 95 16 2 12.5% 1 2
C Allen 2011 4 128 12 7 58.3% 1 4
C Carter 2011 5 162 9 4 44.4% 1 3
K Williams 2011 6 196 7 0 0.0% 0 0
B Batch 2011 7 232 5 1 20.0% 0 1
Totals 100 40 40.0% 11 22
11.0% 22.0%

This was a fairly weak draft for the Steelers but Heyward and Gilbert should continue to add significant value and possibly Cortez Allen also but it seems destined for a C grade at best. Let's see how the Ravens followed up their dismal 2010 draft.

Player year Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency YR1 Draft Eff YR2 Draft Eff
J Smith 2011 1 27 32 10 31.3% 2 3
T Smith 2011 2 58 22 23 104.5% 8 16
J Reid 2011 3 85 17 4 23.5% 1 5
T Doss 2011 4 123 13 5 30.8% 0 1
C Brown 2011 5 164 9 2 22.2% 0 1
P McPhee 2011 5 165 9 8 88.9% 2 6
T Taylor 2011 6 180 8 1 12.5% 0 1
A Allen 2011 7 225 5 1 20.0% 0 1
115 54 47.0% 13 34
11.3% 29.6%

The 2011 draft of the Ravens was better than the previous year but not strong by any means. Torrey Smith was a great pick already surpassing his draft position value. Jimmy Smith started to come into his own in 2013 and will add value going forward but how much depends on how he stays out of trouble. This draft seems unlikely to obtain a grade higher than C. I love Ozzie but I wouldn't be sorry to see him string together a few more D and C grade drafts, it's a recipe for the last decade of Browns records.

The draft of 2011 helped propel the Bengals into their first of 3 straight playoff appearances.

Player year Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency YR1 Draft Eff YR2 Draft Eff YR3 Draft Eff
AJ Green 2011 1 4 56 34 60.7% 10 23
A Dalton 2011 2 35 28 36 128.6% 11 24
D Moch 2011 3 66 20 0 0.0% 0 0
C Boling 2011 4 101 15 16 106.7% 1 9
R Sands 2011 5 134 12 0 0.0% 0 0
R Whalen 2011 6 167 9 1 11.1% 0 1
K Lindsey 2011 7 207 6 0 0.0% 0 0
J Finley 2011 7 246 4 0 0.0% 0 0
Totals 150 87 58.0% 22 57
14.7% 38.0%

The 2011 draft was another solid draft from a value perspective. Two players already have first round career AV's after only 3 seasons but a poor showing by Dalton this year may make his years racking up AV as a starter a thing of the past. Almost all of the AV from this draft is from 3 players with the other 5 contributing basically nothing. Both the 2010-11 drafts of the Bengals have the same binary value distribution. 3 players from those drafts have racked up a round one value and 3 others are on the cusp of round 2 value but 10 of the 17 drafted have yet to attain the career AV of a seventh round pick. The ultimate value of this draft will depend upon Dalton if he is able to win some playoff games and become a long term answer at QB it is a solid B with an outside shot an A. If he falters and spends the remainder of his career carrying a clipboard it is destined to be a C with a chance at a B.

Ranking the AFC North by Draft Efficiency the Browns come out on top by a small margin 1) Browns-58.7% 2) Bengals 58% 3) Ravens 47% 4) Steelers 40%.

Now let's take a quick look at the Seahawks 2011 draft.

Player year Rd pick expected AV Actual AV Draft Efficiency YR1 Draft Eff YR2 Draft Eff
J Carpenter 2011 1 25 33 12 36.4% 3 7
J Moffitt 2011 3 75 19 6 31.6% 3 7
KJ Wright 2011 4 99 15 23 153.3% 7 17
K Durham 2011 4 107 14 5 35.7% 0 1
R Sherman 2011 5 154 10 37 370.0% 5 16
M LeGree 2011 5 156 10 0 0.0% 0 0
B Maxwell 2011 6 173 8 7 87.5% 1 2
L Levingston 2011 7 205 6 0 0.0% 0 0
M Smith 2011 7 242 4 11 275.0% 1 5
Totals 119 101 84.9% 20 55
16.8% 46.2%

All you can say about this draft is WOW! Three players have already returned a multiple of their draft position value and they already have a player with first round and second round value after only 3 seasons. Several of these players will have strong AV contributions going forward. I can not see this being anything but an A draft and should reach that level by the end of the fifth season. In the 2010-11 draft there are no less than 6 players that will have career AV's of round 1 picks and there are at least 2 more in the 2012 draft. Eight round 1 value picks in 3 drafts that is how you win a Super Bowl.

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