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Odds of Browns Working a Day 1 Trade: Slim

At 3 p.m. EST today, the St. Louis Rams will be on the clock as the first two rounds will go into the books. For those of you who are curious, I posted my final first-round mock draft over at PFCritics yesterday.

For today, the question is this: will the Browns find a way to work a trade that would allow us to move into one of the first two rounds? Ignoring the possibility that we could trade one of our quarterbacks, I don't think there is anybody else on our team that we would (or could, barring our Pro Bowlers) trade in order to move up. That means the only possibility of us obtainining a first- or second-round pick would be to sacrifice picks in the 2009 draft.

This is what it would cost the Browns to move up into the first-round of this years' draft:

Browns Acquire Browns Give Up
2008 1st Round Pick 2009 1st Round Pick
2009 2nd Round Pick (or 3rd Round)

We would have to give up a first-round pick next season, as well as a choice between a second- and third-round pick. On top of that, the first round pick that we would receive would probably be somewhere above the 25th selection. Below that, it just wouldn't be worth the wait for a team, considering that they wouldn't be getting any extra picks in this year's draft. Here are the teams that pick between the 25th and 31st positions, and whether we could work a deal with them:

  • Seattle Seahawks (No. 25)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 26)
  • San Diego Chargers (No. 27)
  • Dallas Cowboys (No. 28)
  • San Francisco 49ers (No. 29)
  • Green Bay Packers (No. 30)
  • New York Giants (No. 31)

Everybody wants a first-round pick, but not everyone needs them as much as other teams do. Originally, I wasn't very high on the Seahawks needing a first-rounder, but after they released Shaun Alexander, they have more options to seek out with their pick. The Jaguars usually find their defensive linemen in the draft. The Chargers are a team that can't make it to the Super Bowl, and yet they have some of the least holes in football. They'll be aiming for someone in the secondary, but if safety Kenny Phillips is gone, they are a candidate to make a trade. Then, there comes the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys have two picks in this year's first-round, thanks to the Browns. Originally, I pegged the Cowboys taking a cornerback with one pick, and a running back with the other pick. Assuming the deal for Pacman Jones goes through smoothly, they may not need to draft a cornerback. And, in fear that the Seahawks would grab a running back at No. 25 after releasing Alexander, Felix Jones could be the player they take with the 22nd overall pick. Then, would they need the 28th overall pick necessarily? Or would a first-rounder from the Browns next year, with an additional pick next season, be tempting enough? If the Browns expect to be contenders this season too, it's not like we would be giving up a top-ten pick in 2009 (although you never know).

The Browns' decision on a trade ultimately boils down to whether or not an intriguing player is still on the board at that point. While I may have let him slip very far on my board, I still have cornerback Mike Jenkins available for the taking. Would Jenkins, or some other player that catches the Browns' eye, be worth it to screw up our drafting process in 2009 though? The answer should be a big fat NO. What was the purpose of me wasting time outlining the possibility then? Because we never truly know what Phil Savage has up his sleeve. Savage has hinted towards the fact that the Browns will not be moving up into the first two rounds, but then again, I never saw the deals for Corey Williams or Shaun Rodgers coming.

If there is someone on the board that Savage really likes and sees an opportunity to grab though, a deal is 100 times more likely to occur in the second round than it would in the first round.

Browns Acquire Browns Give Up
2008 2nd Round Pick 2009 2nd Round Pick
2008 4th Round Pick
2009 4th Round Pick

Again, in order for a deal like this to go down, it would probably have to come from a team with a winning record last season or a team with a lot of draft picks. The Packers have two second-round picks, but one of those were through the Corey Williams deal, so there'd be no sense in them working another deal with us. If the Patriots decide to trade away the 7th overall pick in the draft in order to acquire a different first-round pick and an additional second-round pick, then the Browns acquiring the 62nd overall pick from the Patriots would become a possibility. That would mean that we would have the second-to-last pick on Day 1.

Do I see either scenario panning out? No.

So I see the Browns trading one of our quarterbacks for a first-round pick? In some people's minds, we'd probably be crazy not to accept a deal for one of our quarterbacks. Not only would we re-establish position in this year's draft, we wouldn't affect next year's draft. And, if Derek Anderson is horrible this season, he'll lose all of that value heading into the 2009 draft. That's the big decision the Browns would have to make though: which quarterback do they have more faith in? Anderson had he best season of any Browns quarterback since returning to the league, and a little bit beyond that too. Brady Quinn has not been battle-tested in the regular season yet, but our team would probably be good enough to win some games even if he did struggle. There is too much variability between the quarterbacks, that having both of them as a luxury this season has its benefits and consequences in the long run.

The first day should be a quiet one for the Browns, but I'll certainly be glued to what's going on. Several of our SB Nation bloggers will be attending the draft this weekend too, so if there are any exclusives or rumors throughout the day, be sure to check in and I'll be blogging all about it.