Beat the House: WR Edition

Here are parts 1, 2, and 3.  This is the fourth installment of an on-going series:  If you are new to the site, please read the prior installments for an explanation of what this is.

He tried everything, but Browns fans still hated him.

This is bross-like length.  I apologize ahead of time.

I understand why picking a wide receiver high is a sexy pick.  They sell jerseys and they are fun to watch.  Throw it deep and let Larry Fitzgerald go get it.  Throw a screen to Andre Johnson and watch as he sheds tackles for long gains.  I understand why it could be great.  

Having a game breaking WR is one of the greatest weapons that a NFL team can have.  Ask any coach that has had a motivated Randy Moss.  They change the game, even when they aren't being thrown the ball.  

Is the risk worth the reward in taking a WR early?

Going back to the '99 draft, there has been 46 WR's taken in the first round, for an average of 4.2 every year.  How many of those WR's are worth the pick?

After getting a lot of help from DBN, especially Danvail, we have made some changes in the system.  First of all, we have switched to football outsiders for the data.  If you haven't been there, you should check them out.  They have made my life much easier.  We used Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement or DYAR.  If you need a breakdown on what that means, here is a link explaining it.

As for the scoring we went with the following:

6 points for Elite (a top 10 rank in DYAR)

3 points for #1 WR (a top 32 rank in DYAR)

1 point for a starter WR (a top 64 rank in DYAR)

So we went back and looked at every WR drafted since '99.  We also looked into a draft myth/rumor/common belief, does it really take three seasons to see a WR come into their own?  Does a great WR show signs in the first two years?  

Wide Receivers taken in the first round ranked by points;

1. Reggie Wayne [39 points total, 3 in first two years]
2. Tory Holt [35 points total, 7 in first two years]
3. Larry Fitzgerald [27 points total, 6 in first two years]
4. Andre Johnson [24 points total, 6 in first two years]
5. Santana Moss [19 points total, 0 in first two years]
6. Plaxico Burress [19 points total, 3 in first two years]
7. Lee Evans [14 points total, 4 in first two years]
8. Santonio Holmes [13 points total, 6 in first two years]
9. David Boston [12 points total, 3 in first two years]
10. Javon Walker [12 points total, 3 in first two years]
11. Donte Stallworth [12 points total, 4 in first two years]
12. Roddy White [10 points total, 0 in first two years]
13. Roy E. Williams [10 points total, 2 in first two years]
14. Calvin Johnson [8 points total, 7 in first two years]
15. Ashley Lelie [8 points total, 4 in first two years]
16. Anthony Gonzalez [6 points total, 6 in first two years]
17. Michael Clayton [6 points total, 6 in first two years]
18. Braylon Edwards [6 points total, 2 in first two years]
19. Michael Jenkins [5 points total, 1 in first two years]
20. Dwayne Bowe [5 points total, 4 in first two years]
21. Koren Robinson [5 points total, 3 in first two years]
22. Peter Warrick [4 points total, 0 in first two years]
23. Bryant Johnson [4 points total, 0 in first two years]
24. Travis Taylor [3 points total, 0 in first two years]
25. Rod Gardner [3 points total, 3 in first two years]
26. Reggie Williams [3 points total, 0 in first two years]
27. Matt Jones [3 points total, 2 in first two years]
28. Robert Meachum [3 points total, 0 in first two years]
29. Percy Harvin [3 points total, 3 in first season*]
30. Jeremy Maclin [3 points total, 3 in first season*]
31. Hakeem Nicks [3 points total, 3 in first season*]
32. Mark Clayton [2 points total, 1 in first two seasons]
33. Kenny Britt [1 point total, 1 in first season*]
34. David Terrell [1 point total, 1 in first two seasons]
35. Freddie Mitchell [1 point total, 0 in first two seasons]
36. Troy Williamson [1 point toal, 1 in first two seasons]
37. Troy Edwards [0 points]
38. R. Jay Soward [0 points]
39. Sylvester Morris [0 points]
40. Charles Rogers [0 points]
41. Rashaun Woods [0 points]
42. Ted Ginn [0 points]
43. Craig Davis [0 points]
44. Darrius Heyward-Bey [0 points]
45. Michael Crabtree [0 points, but was on the verge]
46. Mike Williams [0 points]