Statisical Profile of Browns Coaching Candidates

Where Do Head Coaches Come from Daddy?

Since 2006 there have been exactly 50 new coaches hired into the NFL. I have broken them down into 4 major categories:

• 10% are hot shot college coaches. (Petrino, Kiffin, Carroll, Harbaugh, Schiano)

• 24% are retread NFL Head coaches (Shell, Jauron, Herm Edwards, Wade Phillips, Norv Turner, Mangini, Mora, Shannahan, Fox, Gailey, Fisher, Romeo)

• 34% are seasoned, veteran coordinators (Kubiak, Maranelli, Chilly, Cameron, Whisenhut, Ryan, Caldwell, Spagnola, Mike Smith, Singletary, Jackson, Shurmur, Rivera, Frazier, Pagano, Mullarkey, Philbin)

• 32% are young guns or off the beaten path hires. To make this list you have to have been hired closer to your 40th birthday than your 45th birthday or you had to skip the coordinator position. As a reminder, Banner hired Reid from this category – as he did not have coordinator experience at time of hire. Coaches in this category (Payton, Mangini, McCarthy, Lanehan, Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Zorn, McDaniel, Cable, Rahim Morris, Sparano, Schwartz, Haley, Garret, Munchak, Allen)

Why are so few from college ranks?• You get total control of the program, and personnel acquisition. Why settle for one first rounder when if you are Nick Saban you get 4 or 5 per yr.

• Success in college is self perpetuating, you win, and people flock to you. In NFL – you have to bust it every year.

• Access to co-eds and cheerleaders? Too good to be true unless you crash with them on your motorcycle.

So what coaches make the best hires?

• So here is where it gets tricky. I have set up the following rating system and rated each coach.

o Game winning TD hire – 4 pts for this one

o 1st Down hire – 3 pts

o Punt – get 2 pts

o Pick 6 Turnover – get 1 pt for this hire.

• College coaches had the highest average hire at 2.6 points per hire. They had a 40% TD hire rate (Harbaugh, Carroll), and a 40% flameout rate (Petrino, Kiffin). High risk, high reward.

• Next up – Your veteran coordinators come in at 2.1, tied with NFL retreads. The major difference is that there were 2 TD hires (Frazier, Mike Smith) but a full 7 disasters. Retreads produced only 1 touchdown hire (John Fox) but much fewer disasters.

• Going off the beaten path is high risk/reward. While the overall avg was the lowest at 2.0 – there 25% touchdown hires (Payton, McCarthy, Tomlin, and Harbaugh) but a full 50% of the coaches were abject failures. (McDaniel, Haley, Zorn, Sparano, Allen, Munchak, Lanehan, Cable)

So Does this mean we hire from the college ranks?• There are 2 dream hires from the college ranks.

• Saban would be the single best hire for the Browns. He is the ultimate "golf prick" that thinks he better than you, smarter than you, and generally is. I like the fact that he did not have immediate success in Miami. If he comes back – it will be with a passion. He is basically the same cold prickiness of Belicek, but with the sociopathic capability to exude charisma.

• Chip Kelly will leave - in the NFL you do not have to sneak around to pay players. He will leave the Ducks a la Carroll – right before the NCAA lowers the hammer. He is creative, intelligent, and driven. No worries about the gimmicky offense– he will tailor it to the NFL through his OC. Here is the 1 fact to know about Kelly, with all the offensive power he has wrecked on the NCAA – not one of his players has been drafted in the top 60 selections.

• I like college coaches because they see so many different offenses and defenses; they tend to think outside the box.

• Odds for the Browns in this category = 0% . Saban hates cold weather and probably stays in Bama with "God" on his business card. Kelly stays on the west coast in SD or Oak.

So if not from college - what is the Browns Coaching pool?

• Retread candidates = Josh McDaniel, Andy Reid

• Seasoned coordinator candidates = Jay Gruden, and Perry Fewell

• Young gun = Mike McCoy from Denver Broncos.

Statistically speaking there is almost a 60% chance the coach is a retread or established coordinator.

So what are the %’s

• I give Andy Reid 5% chance. Despite obvious connections, this is a guy who needs a year off. When your kids go from druggies to turning up dead, time to take inventory before going back to coaching. I get a sense that Banner will get that.

• Next least likely is Perry Fewell. I give him a 10% chance. His positives – SB experience. Negatives, I really think that Banner will try to stay on the offensive side of the ball to try to get an alignment of head coach with Weeden. If he surprises, will be a really good hire.

• Here is my personal favorite, Mike McCoy. 20% chance. I really like what he did last year. Orton not working - go figure out a way to win with Tebow. The rest is history, including an epic OT win over the Steelers. I really like a coach that modifies his system and wins. While I am hoping for a McCoy hire, I think Manning basically being an OC really hurts his chances.

• Josh McDaniel, 25% chance. He is my least favorite candidate. On the plus side, he is local product and gets it. Belicek really prospered after being whacked, and Josh getting a HC job at 29 implies genius, and he did work miracles with Cassel. Statistically retreads are the safest pick.

• Jay Gruden gets the nod at 35% chance. His positives are his work with Dalton. Not that talented, but he played like a savvy vet from the start. AJ Green blossomed immediately, but I imagine I could have coached him to the Pro Bowl. Still, he knows the division, has quasi HC experience from UFL, Arena. Added plus - you hire him and weaken a rising Bengal squad has now qualified for the playoffs 2 straight years.

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