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Week 4 NFL Picks: Trying to Get Back on the Winning Side

Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

I am officially ashamed of my picks record. I sunk to an all-time low in Week 3 out of all the years I have been doing picks, with a 4-12 record for the week. I could have picked games at random and done much better. Ugh. The terrible week dropped my overall record to 22-26 on the season. Maybe the regular refs being back this week will swing me some good luck.

Week 4 Games Explanation Pick
vs. Tebow and Sanchez Are No Match: Despite a comedy of errors between Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow a week ago, the Jets were able to defeat the Miami Dolphins in overtime after a missed field goal by Dan Carpenter. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings pulled off a stunning win against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are too efficient of a team to drop two losses in a row against inferior opponents. 49ers 26, Jets 13
vs. "Classic" NFC West Battle: I thought the Rams were starting to look sharp, but they weren't very good on the road against the Bears last week. They have better odds at home, where they had their only win of the season. I still have some faith in their secondary, and the Seahawks' passing game has yet to take off. The Seahawks have played well through three games, but they are a team that really thrives off of the energy provided by their home crowd. The Rams will win a close one. Rams 20, Seahawks 17
vs. "Cam't" Do Anything in 2012: What has happened to Cam Newton and the Panthers' offense? If they were trying to get things right, this isn't the week to do it. The Falcons have looked like the NFC's best team so far, and have even impressed me more than the 49ers. I really like their ability to move the chains via the passing game early, and then attack teams on the ground later to milk the clock. The Panthers don't have a defensive threat up front, and it'll cost them again. Falcons 28, Panthers 14
vs. Can't Contend Without a Defense: The Lions played a very whacky game last week, but it goes to show you just how bad their defense is. It's a shame, because their offense is good enough to do some damage and make the playoffs, but their defense will hold them back again. The Vikings have won more games than I expected them to at this point, and Christian Ponder had the game of his young career last week. I just can't wrap my mind around the Vikings being able to pull off another upset, though. Lions 30, Vikings 20
vs. Arrowhead Advantage for Charles: It was very important for the Chiefs that Jamaal Charles got going last week. Granted, his 200+ yard effort won't happen every week, but in order for the Chiefs to keep their defense off the field and get ahead early in games, they need their running game to be strong. After looking strong over the first two weeks of the season, Philip Rivers and company laid an egg at home against the Falcons last week. This is a tough divisional match-up to call, but I like the thought of Kansas City being on the upswing. Chiefs 24, Chargers 21
vs. No Music City Miracles in Texas: As a side comment, in one of my paid fantasy leagues, I have Ben Tate on the bench. This is exactly the type of game I'd want him for. The Titans can't stop teams on the ground, and Tate torched the Titans twice last season. Unfortunately, my team is loaded with good running backs, so I don't know if I want to take the chance on a backup running back this week. /end of aside/ The Texans are going to blow out the Titans. Texans 41, Titans 17
vs. The "Not Grabbing an Official" Version: I was taken aback by the fact that the Patriots could not put the Ravens away on Sunday Night Football after holding a two-possession lead. They are too good of a team to be 1-2 right now, and there early season struggles are hard to pinpoint. Rob Gronkowski needs to show up more. The Bills have played a couple of good games in a row, but due to the uncertainty at their running back position this week, I'm going with the Patriots. Patriots 28, Bills 21
vs. Bengals Can Take Out the Non-Contenders: I have been impressed with Andy Dalton's performance to begin his sophomore season. The Bengals, like the Ravens, seem to have a nice group of receivers who each have their own specialty. Their defense is still terrible, but that won't be a problem against the Jaguars. Maurice-Jones Drew should find some success on the ground, but Blaine Gabbert won't be able to make enough big throws to go toe-to-toe with the Bengals' offense. Bengals 31, Jaguars 13
vs. Manning Will Get It Right: The Broncos are scuffling at the moment, but I still remain confident that Peyton Manning will continue to get comfortable (and, he hasn't even really been that bad, right?). The Broncos came up with a nice performance offensively against the Steelers last week, but their defense was still torched. Darren McFadden will have trouble running against the Broncos, much like he did over the first two weeks, allowing Manning to get back to .500. Broncos 27, Raiders 16
vs. Tough Defense Bodes Well: Did you see the schedule that the Cardinals have coming up? I picked up their defense in fantasy football because they have been lights out in three games, and that trend will look to continue against the Dolphins. Cardinals 17, Dolphins 10
vs. RGIII To The Rescue: Both of these teams seem to have some potential, but they are far from complete. For as much offensive punch as the Redskins have, their defense can't stop anybody. The Buccaneers have a very good run defense, but they can't stop opposing team's top receivers and aren't consistent offensively. This is one of the tougher games of the week to decide on, but I'm going to go with the flashy Redskins, led by Robert Griffin III, to will his team to victory. Redskins 24, Buccaneers 20
vs. Biggest Underachievers in the League: Who expected this to be a matchup of the 0-3 Saints going up against the 1-2 Packers? The Saints have been beyond awful on defense, while the Packers have really underachieved on offense. Something has to give in this game...or does it? My vote goes toward a shootout in favor of the Packers, dropping the Saints to an unbelievable 0-4. Packers 34, Saints 31
vs. "Giant" Gaps for the Eagles: Everyone is getting pressure on Michael Vick, and he's not making enough good decisions in the face of it. The Giants have rallied after a disappointing opening week, and with all of their fast defensive linemen, they are going to make life a living hell for Vick. The Giants will also get Hakeem Nicks back, and Eli Manning will continue to deal. Giants 20, Eagles 17
vs. Cutler Keeps Getting Killed: Both of these teams are hard to read, and that has a lot to do with inconsistent play at the quarterback position. My logic for taking the Cowboys on Monday night comes down to two reasons: the home field avantage (which doesn't really matter most of the time), and the fact that Jay Cutler gets killed all the time behind his porous offensive line. With Dallas' secondary improved, they'll be able to come away with a win. Cowboys 21, Bears 20
vs. Make Us Proud, Weeden & T-Rich: The full game prediction can be found here. I have spent the past two weeks predicting the Browns to upset their opponents, and it has not panned out. I do like some of the matchups this week for Cleveland, especially since the Ravens' defense has been giving up a ton of yardage. I can't go out on a limb for the third week in a row, though, as much as I want to. If the Browns continue to start games flat, they are going to get crushed. Ravens 27, Browns 17
Teams on the Bye Week

Survivor Pick:
I am 0-3 in survivor. I am pitiful at this. I'll take the Texans this week and pray I finally get one right.