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Draft Strategy: Move Up or Move Down?


As we get closer and closer to the draft, my mind wanders and needs some extra stimulation. Take a look at this article from National Football Post’s very own Tony Villiotti as he discusses moving up and down in the draft and his method of assigning value to these moves. It’s a very insightful and thought provoking but could also be confusing or difficult to follow.

Here’s teaser from the article:

The phones in NFL war rooms generally get a pretty good workout during the draft. Some teams are looking to move up and grab a player they covet before another team can select him. Other teams do not see anyone exciting at its draft spot and would just as soon move down and add an extra pick or two. Trades happen when either there are two teams with complementary strategies (e.g., one wants to trade up and one wants to trade down) or a team looking to trade up offers enough of a premium to entice a potential trade partner.

Typically, some variation of the Trade Value Chart is used to determine the fair value for a trade. DRAFTMETRICS is not a fan of the trade value chart but at least it brings a semblance of structure to the trade process.

In this article, DRAFTMETRICS addresses the issues surrounding move up/move down decisions. DRAFTMETRICS will first establish the relative value of draft choices and then determine, given the consideration involved, whether recent trades favor the team moving up or the team moving down. The Value Groups previously defined by DRAFTMETRICS are used to establish the relative values. To refresh your memory, the seven Value Groups are as follows:


With the Browns being in a position that many feel lends itself to a trade down, the Browns brain-trust could very well have implored a method similar to this in their preparation. I am not sure the exact process each NFL GM and talent scouts implement to build their value charts, so it's hard to determine how the Browns value certain moves. Feel free to share your interpretation or comments below as we are officially one week away from the NFL Draft!

Stay tuned for the staff writers Browns Big Boards coming soon!