Dawgs By Wager: Browns at Jaguars - Odds and Prop Bets

Browns at Jaguars

Roll Cleveland!

All of the momentum remains behind the Browns after manhandling Pittsburgh last week. This time they head back on the road, traveling to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars, where Cleveland is a six point favorite (-6).

It is worth noting that the line opened early this week at only -3 for the Browns, which quickly resulted in the large majority of the action put on their side. Since then, the line has been steadily moving in the Cleveland direction, while the consensus moves slowly in the other.

And, despite how well the Browns have been playing as of late, especially on the offensive side of the ball, the current point spread is actually giving Cleveland more respect than it might at appear at first glance. Considering how Vegas wants to entice roughly equal action on both sides of the wager, as well as the general 3-point home-field advantage, the Browns are finally garnering significant trust.

The Oddshark prediction computer may finally be coming around.

Week after week, the Machines have been doubting Cleveland regardless of the continued sustained success thus far, especially against the spread.

Statistically speaking, the computer algorithms crunching the numbers to produce these predictions have been specifically vastly underestimating the Browns' offense, and each and every week Kyle Shanahan, Brian Hoyer, and the rest have been putting those predictions to shame.

This, of course, has left the computer with a measly 0-4-1 record when picking Cleveland games this season (ATS).

Now the Browns are finally given the respect they deserve from our future artificially-intelligent overlords, but it comes against the league-worst 0-6 Jaguars.

The public consensus sees the same writing on the wall and is picking Cleveland against the spread for only the second time this season, which means they've made a lot of bad picks on the Browns so far. The consensus moved to 1-3-1.

The Browns themselves now post an impressive 4-0-1 record (ATS) this season.

Performance of opponents, consensus, computer, and Browns against the spread:

Prop Bets

This week, instead of just one or two Browns players getting some proposition bet action, the entire team is represented.

In this "Week 7 Special" brought to us by Bovada, we're asked whether or not Cleveland will win their next three games. With many fans already writing the Browns in at 6-2 because of the lack of quality opponents over the course of those games, this prop seems like an obvious one to offer.

But is the result as obvious to predict? Of course not.

Despite the Jags, Raiders, and Bucs combining for an abysmal 1-16 record on the season, there is simply too much parity, randomness, and chance of injury in the NFL to make even this a given. That's why the "No" is sitting at a -250 money line, which roughly equates to an estimated 71.4% probability of occurring.

The "Yes" is at +170, which converts to about an estimated 37% probability.

Without consideration to either team, knowing there are only two possible outcomes to each game with respect to this wager (i.e. Browns win OR Browns don't win (loss/tie), the true mathematical probability of this prop is a simple 1/8 or 0.125.

And a 12.5% probability converts to a +700 money line, which you won't see here. Approach with caution.

Share your predictions for all the lines in the comments!

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