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Dawgs By Wager: Raiders at Browns - Vegas Odds and Analysis


Raiders at Browns

Last week was a massive step backwards for the Cleveland Browns, but the loss seems to have not resulted in any loss of respect in the spread just yet.

Unfortunately, a large part of the reason for that is due to the lack of quality opponents over the last two weeks.

Even so, while going from visiting a win-less team to hosting a win-less team, there have been some differing trends at the sportsbooks for wagers on the Browns against the spread in the last two games.

More specifically, instead of opening at a -3 and eventually doubling as the eve of the game against the Jags approached, this week the line opened at -7 for the Browns and has since remained substantially steady.

As we often end up noting on a weekly basis, home-field advantage is again something worth acknowledging here. While it plainly seems like a reasonable explanation for the difference in the line opening, the Oakland Raiders have also taken up the mantle of league-worst, the only team still without a win.

That's not a pot shot at the Raiders, but merely a recognition of the factors playing into how handicappers determine where to open and move these point spreads. For Cleveland, one of the most vital things they had to take away from last week's devastating upset was that no opponent can be overlooked.

Complacency is never an option in a league like the NFL, where parity is so prevalent and paramount to its popularity.

Stat Cleveland Browns Oakland Raiders
Point Spread (Money Line) -7 (even) +7 (-110)
Consensus: Current Bets 46% 54%
Computer Predicted Score 21 10

The Oddshark prediction computer continues to show how different it is not to swayed by any sort of emotional biases.

Almost universally throughout this season, the advanced statistical algorithms have been producing estimations and predictions that the Browns would under-perform against the spread... until last week.

Finally, it appeared the Machines were giving Cleveland the respect it deserved... and the Browns rewarded them by flopping against the line by an incredibly ugly -24.

The public consensus reflected the same pick and the same loss. So, how do the two respond?

The consensus jumped from a 60% amount of bets on the Browns last week down to only 46% now, against a very similar line and opponent record. "Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me, foo- can't get fooled again."

Computer mathematics don't suffer from the same misgivings. They're still standing strong with Cleveland, predicting a comfortable 21-10 win at home, despite any prior disappointments.

Performance of opponents, consensus, computer, and Browns against the spread:

Week Opponent Spread (Line) Consensus Computer Final Browns ATS
1 @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-115) 64% 22-15 30-27 Cover +3.5
2 New Orleans Saints -7.0 (-105) 65% 26-15 24-26 Cover +9.0
3 Baltimore Ravens -2.0 (-105) 62% 21-16 23-21 Push
4 bye
5 @ Tennessee Titans -1.0 (-125) 43% 17-16 28-29 Cover +2.0
6 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.0 (-115) 55% 27-19 10-31 Cover +19.0
7 @ Jacksonville Jags +6.0 (-110) 40% 11-22 24-6 Loss -24.0
8 Oakland Raiders +7.0 (-110) 54% 10-21

Here are the current records when picking Browns' games against the spread this season:

ATS (Cover-Loss-Push)
Oddsshark Computer 0-5-1
Public Consensus 1-4-1
Browns (actual score) 4-1-1

Share your predictions for all the lines in the comments!

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