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Dawgs By Wager: Buccaneers at Browns - Vegas Odds and Analysis

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Cliff McBride

Buccaneers at Browns

There and Back Again: The relationship the Cleveland Browns have developed with the point spread, sportsbooks, and public consensus over the course of this season has been quite a rocky one.

While the Cleveland faithful have been along for the roller coaster ride, allowing for the appropriate rebirth of the Kardiac Kids moniker, it's reasonable to assume the majority of average sports gamblers wagering on the Browns have been a lot less enthusiastic.

This year's Brownies have indeed been there and back again with both the Vegas handicappers and general gambling public, which is reflected in not only the spread but the consensus numbers as well.

This week the line opened at a modest -6 and has since dropped to only -7, despite 61% of the bets thus far going in Cleveland's direction. During the same day merely a week ago, that percentage was only at 46.

This time around, it's more indicative the trend seen when the Browns first began this stretch against three of the worst teams the NFL has to offer, opponents that combine for a 2-20 record on the season. That was when they traveled to Jacksonville as six point favorites and were promptly awakened rudely with a -24 stomping against the spread. The 60% that put their money on Cleveland to cover were not rewarded for the trust.

But this time the Browns return home where they are 3-0-1 against the spread, looking to end this "easy" stretch on a much-needed positive note before the schedule gets remarkably more difficult.

Stat Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cleveland Browns
Point Spread (Money Line) +7 (-115) -7 (-105)
Consensus: Current Bets 39% 61%
Computer Predicted Score 9 22

The Oddshark prediction computer is maintaining its confidence in Cleveland while taking on the bottom-of-the-barrel opposition.

Seemingly unswayed by the loss to the Jaguars, the Machines didn't follow the consensus by swiftly jumping off the Browns' bandwagon.

Instead, they were rewarded with their first correct pick of a Browns game against the spread this season, as Cleveland defeated Oakland by a score that was among the closest to the computer's predictions thus far.

It's probably worth noting that the public's wildly erratic betting patterns on the Browns has only garnered them a 1-5-1 record when picking those games. But simultaneously, the computer's comparatively more stable method of crunching the advanced statistics into a prediction algorithm has resulted in the same, 1-5-1.

Performance of opponents, consensus, computer, and Browns against the spread:

Week Opponent Spread (Line) Consensus Computer Final Browns ATS
1 @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-115) 64% 22-15 30-27 Cover +3.5
2 New Orleans Saints -7.0 (-105) 65% 26-15 24-26 Cover +9.0
3 Baltimore Ravens -2.0 (-105) 62% 21-16 23-21 Push
4 bye
5 @ Tennessee Titans -1.0 (-125) 43% 17-16 28-29 Cover +2.0
6 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.0 (-115) 55% 27-19 10-31 Cover +19.0
7 @ Jacksonville Jaguars +6.0 (-110) 40% 11-22 24-6 Loss -24.0
8 Oakland Raiders +7.0 (-110) 54% 10-21 13-23 Cover +3.0
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.0 (-115) 39% 9-22

Current records when picking Browns' games against the spread this season:

ATS (Win-Loss-Push)
Oddsshark Computer 1-5-1
Public Consensus 1-5-1
Browns (actual score) 5-1-1

Share your predictions for all the lines in the comments!

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