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Dawgs By Wager: Texans at Browns - Odds, Prop Bets, and Analysis

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Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Texans at Browns

Steady as she goes.

Following what can only be described as a choppy ride throughout the first ten weeks of the season, on a surprise journey to sole first place of the AFC North division, the Browns should now be looking to hold strong and do what they can to cement their current position among the conference.

The gambling world has similarly rode this roller coaster of a season right along with Cleveland. But they, too, appear to be settling in and leveling off... for now, at least.

This week the line is once again back in the Browns favor, opening at -3 for the home team, as they play host to the Houston Texans.

With home-field advantage worth that standard three points, you can think of the line closer to even. But with the lake effect snow pounding Cleveland recently, it may be safe to assume the Browns are more used to this sort of "football weather."

Just as well, the line itself is also holding steady since opening.

Stat Houston Texans Cleveland Browns
Point Spread (Money Line) +3 (-110) -3 (-130)
Consensus: Current Bets 48% 52%
Computer Predicted Score 21 23

In all but two games thus far, the public consensus has not come within five percentage points of that even 50/50. In those two prior, a slight majority favored the opponent, Steelers (+2) and Raiders (+7), despite the games being played at Cleveland. The Browns covered them both.

This week's contest is the closest yet, but now that slight majority is favoring the home team, with 52% of wagers placed on Cleveland so far.

The Odds Shark prediction computer appears to find this one similarly difficult to pick. Despite projecting a very tight win for the Browns, 23-21 over the Texans, that would put Cleveland just 1 point under the current spread.

Performance of opponents, consensus, computer, and Browns against the spread:

Week Opponent Spread (Line) Consensus Computer Final Browns ATS
1 @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-115) 64% 22-15 30-27 Cover +3.5
2 New Orleans Saints -7.0 (-105) 65% 26-15 24-26 Cover +9.0
3 Baltimore Ravens -2.0 (-105) 62% 21-16 23-21 Push
4 bye
5 @ Tennessee Titans -1.0 (-125) 43%  ✔ 17-16 28-29 Cover +2.0
6 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.0 (-115) 55% 27-19 10-31 Cover +19.0
7 @ Jacksonville Jaguars +6.0 (-110) 40% 11-22 24-6 Loss -24.0
8 Oakland Raiders +7.0 (-110) 54% 10-21  ✔ 13-23 Cover +3.0
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.0 (-115) 39% 9-22 17-22 Loss -2.0
10 @ Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (-108) 61% 23-21  ✔ 3-24 Cover +27.5
11 Houston Texans +3.0 (-110) 48% 21-23

Current records when picking Browns' games against the spread this season:

ATS (Win-Loss-Push)
Oddsshark Computer 2-6-1
Public Consensus 1-7-1
Browns (actual score) 6-2-1

Prop Bets

This week we don't have any Browns players making an appearance in Bovada's NFL proposition bets, but we are treated with something just as intriguing.

Who are the odds on favorites to win the league's Coach of the Year award at the end of the season? Here Cleveland does get some representation after all.

First-year head coach Mike Pettine comes in at 7/1, which makes him tied for third among the nine candidates listed. Turning a former 4-12 team into legitimate first place playoff contenders in just a single offseason, even with a slew of injuries and various other issues impacting some of the Browns best players – that will begin to turn heads and earn some well-deserved recognition of the tremendous job Pettine and his staff have done in 2014.

Coach of the Year Odds
Bruce Arians 1/1
Chip Kelly 6/1
Jim Caldwell 6/1
Andy Reid 7/1
☞ Mike Pettine 7/1
Bill Belichick 9/1
Jason Garrett 20/1
Mike McCarthy 20/1
John Fox 25/1

Share your predictions for all the lines in the comments!

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