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Dawgs By Wager: Browns at Falcons - Odds, Prop Bets, and Analysis

Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Browns at Falcons

Predictions are hard.

Predicting NFL games is harder.

Predicting Cleveland Browns games has been next to impossible this season.

Just ask the majority of the gambling public thus far. The public consensus has a 1-8-1 record while picking Browns games against the spread in 2014.

Given the nature of the NFL game and these wagers, it's not likely to get any easier. The infographic to the right helps illustrate one of the reasons that's the case. Parity in this league, among its only 16 games per each of its 32 teams, still maintains an incredible strong presence.

"Any given Sunday" is more than an inspirational phrase for losing teams to use they want to get encouraged about the prospect of beating an upcoming favored team. It's very much a reality in the NFL. While this level of unpredictability leads to a near universal excitement unlike any other sports league, it can also give gamblers fits.

This week, it's actually the losing team being favored over the winning one. The 4-6 Atlanta Falcons opened as 3-point favorites as they play host to the 6-4 Browns. With the home-field advantage taken into consideration, the spread is about even and has held steady.

Stat Atlanta Falcons Cleveland Browns
Point Spread (Money Line) -3 (-115) +3 (-105)
Consensus: Current Bets 44% 56%
Computer Predicted Score 21 25

Despite the Falcons coming off of back-to-back wins and Cleveland still trying to get over a disappointing upset last week, both the public consensus and OddsShark prediction computer are picking the Browns (+3).

Earlier in the season, the majority of wagers on the particular week's Browns game would completely rebound based mostly on just the previous week. If they got it wrong, they flip. If they got it right, they flop.

But this time the gambling confidence in Cleveland seems mostly unaffected by the home loss last week.

Performance of opponents, consensus, computer, and Browns against the spread:

Week Opponent Spread (Line) Consensus Computer Final Browns ATS
1 @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-115) 64% 22-15 30-27 Cover +3.5
2 New Orleans Saints -7.0 (-105) 65% 26-15 24-26 Cover +9.0
3 Baltimore Ravens -2.0 (-105) 62% 21-16 23-21 Push
4 bye
5 @ Tennessee Titans -1.0 (-125) 43%  ✔ 17-16 28-29 Cover +2.0
6 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.0 (-115) 55% 27-19 10-31 Cover +19.0
7 @ Jacksonville Jaguars +6.0 (-110) 40% 11-22 24-6 Loss -24.0
8 Oakland Raiders +7.0 (-110) 54% 10-21  ✔ 13-23 Cover +3.0
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.0 (-115) 39% 9-22 17-22 Loss -2.0
10 @ Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (-108) 61% 23-21  ✔ 3-24 Cover +27.5
11 Houston Texans +3.0 (-110) 48% 21-23  ✔ 23-7 Loss -19.0
12 Atlanta Falcons -3.0 (-115) 44% 21-25

Current records when picking Browns' games against the spread this season:

ATS (Win-Loss-Push)
Oddsshark Computer 3-6-1
Public Consensus 1-8-1
Browns (actual score) 6-3-1

Prop Bets


Now that this multiple-record-holding elite WR talent is back with the team, it's time to pass the message on to Mike Pettine, Kyle Shanahan, and company. Unleash Josh Gordon!

This week Bovada is offering a number of Week 12 "SPECIAL" NFL prop bets regarding just how much production Gordon will have in his first week back, as well as an over/under on his season total TDs.

The lines seem to suggest they expect Gordon to be fairly pedestrian in these mere six games following the big suspension, especially compared to the pace he set last year.

It does seem reasonable that his first time back playing at the NFL speed since preseason could be limited somewhat. But the total touchdown number, 2.5, seems on the very low end given Gordon's explosive receiving style and ability, which is why the over is set at -160.

Week 12 SPECIALS: Josh Gordon Line Over Under
Total Receiving Yards (Week 12) 75 ½ -115 -115
Total Receptions (Week 12) 5 -130 even
Total TD's in the 2014 Regular Season 2 ½ -160 +130
Will he score a TD in the game?
even (Yes) -130 (No)

Share your predictions for all the lines in the comments!

Please play responsibly. Be sure to confirm the regulations in your jurisdiction. Only wager money that you can afford to lose. "Help is available 24/7 and is 100% confidential," via the National Council on Problem Gambling, 1-800-522-4700.