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Dawgs By Wager: Browns at Bills - Odds and Analysis

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Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Browns at Bills

The mob is fickle.

After opening at an even +0/-0, the line for today's Browns-Bills game has since over the course of this past week jumped to a whopping 3.5 spread, favoring Buffalo at home.

The gambling public, or at least the majority, were quick to hop off of the Cleveland bandwagon to get a piece of that action and favor the Bills, who are coming off an strong showing of their own.

Generally, the consensus on the Browns against the spread had been moving accordingly, appearing to be knee-jerk reactions to the previous week's performance, which had more times than not resulting in losses for the bettor. This time, despite Cleveland giving them just their second correct pick on these games this season, wagers are moving back in the other direction.

It probably has less to do with the Browns than it does the Bills and their thriving defense. Although, with the snow completely melted, both teams' offenses may be less restricted by the "football weather" than anticipated a week ago.

Overall, with respect to home-field advantage and the line's movement, we have a yet again another game that handicappers essentially consider even, very hard to call, and the third week in a row within about 3 points, the usual home deviation.

Stat Buffalo Bills Cleveland Browns
Point Spread (Money Line) -3.5 (+100) +3.5 (-120)
Consensus: Current Bets 54% 46%
Computer Predicted Score 23 22.8

The machines are catching on.

Throughout what we've established to be a near-impossible season to pick Browns games, the advances statistical algorithms designed for doing just that were as wrong as everyone else. Well, for the first seven weeks.

Now it seems our heartless tin friends have gotten the hang of Cleveland, correctly picking four of the last five games, including the last three in a row. Hat trick in the bag, can they add another?

The OddsShark computer is calling for a near tie, with a fractional prediction of 23-22.8, a lead for the Bills outright, but what would be yet another cover for the Browns.

☞ Performance of opponents, consensus, computer, and Browns against the spread:

Week Opponent Spread (Line) Consensus Computer Final Browns ATS
1 @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-115) 64% 22-15 30-27 Cover +3.5
2 New Orleans Saints -7.0 (-105) 65% 26-15 24-26 Cover +9.0
3 Baltimore Ravens -2.0 (-105) 62% 21-16 23-21 Push
4 bye
5 @ Tennessee Titans -1.0 (-125) 43%  ✔ 17-16 28-29 Cover +2.0
6 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.0 (-115) 55% 27-19 10-31 Cover +19.0
7 @ Jacksonville Jaguars +6.0 (-110) 40% 11-22 24-6 Loss -24.0
8 Oakland Raiders +7.0 (-110) 54% 10-21  ✔ 13-23 Cover +3.0
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.0 (-115) 39% 9-22 17-22 Loss -2.0
10 @ Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (-108) 61% 23-21  ✔ 3-24 Cover +27.5
11 Houston Texans +3.0 (-110) 48% 21-23  ✔ 23-7 Loss -19.0
12 @ Atlanta Falcons -3.0 (-115) 44%  ✔ 21-25  ✔ 24-26 Cover +5.0
5 @ Buffalo Bills -3.5 (+100) 54% 23-23

☞ Current records when picking Browns' games against the spread this season:

ATS (Win-Loss-Push)
Oddsshark Computer 4-6-1
Public Consensus 2-8-1
Browns (actual score) 7-3-1

Share your predictions for all the lines in the comments!

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