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Dawgs By Wager: Browns at Bengals - Gameday Odds and Analysis

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Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Colts at Browns

The Johnny Effect?

The Cleveland Browns haven't been in a game where the spread came within just one point of the even +0/-0 for nearly 10 weeks, since playing the Titans following their early bye. After barely escaping it with a victory than crushing the Steelers next, the Browns had a month worth of heavily favored game, in one direction or the other.

The results, of course, were hit and miss, which led the next five games all to hover around 3 points. But the up-and-down season against the spread continued.

Today is different. This week's game is getting a lot more eyeballs than usual and that means a lot more action will be wagered on this one. Those extra eyes and added bets are no doubt thanks to the presence of Johnny Manziel, who's making his first career start.

Though the Cincinnati Bengals are coming off their own crushing in-conference defeat, they won three in a row prior to that and still hold sole position of first place in the ridiculously competitive AFC North. But, this week the line opened at an even 0/0, despite the Cleveland home-field advantage, generally worth 3. While just 53% of the wagers have been put on Cinci, only a few sportsbooks have moved the line to -1. Bovada has kept it straight-up.

The OddsShark prediction computer is actually going out on a limb to not only give the Browns the win against the even spread, but to also say the victory comes handily, with respect to how close these projection usually are, 22-16 for Cleveland.

Stat Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns
Point Spread (Money Line) +0 (-110) +0 (-110)
Consensus: Current Bets 53% 47%
Computer Predicted Score 15.8 22.2

☞ Performance of opponents, consensus, computer, and Browns against the spread:

Week Opponent Spread (Line) Consensus Computer Final Browns ATS
1 @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-115) 64% 22-15 30-27 Cover +3.5
2 New Orleans Saints -7.0 (-105) 65% 26-15 24-26 Cover +9.0
3 Baltimore Ravens -2.0 (-105) 62% 21-16 23-21 Push
4 bye
5 @ Tennessee Titans -1.0 (-125) 43%  ✔ 17-16 28-29 Cover +2.0
6 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.0 (-115) 55% 27-19 10-31 Cover +19.0
7 @ Jacksonville Jaguars +6.0 (-110) 40% 11-22 24-6 Loss -24.0
8 Oakland Raiders +7.0 (-110) 54% 10-21  ✔ 13-23 Cover +3.0
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.0 (-115) 39% 9-22 17-22 Loss -2.0
10 @ Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (-108) 61% 23-21  ✔ 3-24 Cover +27.5
11 Houston Texans +3.0 (-110) 48% 21-23  ✔ 23-7 Loss -19.0
12 @ Atlanta Falcons -3.0 (-115) 44%  ✔ 21-25  ✔ 24-26 Cover +5.0
5 @ Buffalo Bills -3.5 (+100) 54%  ✔ 23-23 26-10 Loss -12.5
5 Indianapolis Colts -3.0 (-115) 62% 34-24 25-24 Cover +2.0
10 Cincinnati Bengals -0 (-110) 53% 16-22

☞ Current records when picking Browns' games against the spread this season:

ATS (Win-Loss-Push)
Oddsshark Computer 4-8-1
Public Consensus 3-9-1
Browns (actual score) 8-4-1

Share your predictions for all the lines in the comments!

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