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It's that time of year again for Browns' fans - it's our "Super Bowl". The NFL Draft season is underway and if you're anything like me you already miss football on Sundays. With the NFL Combine approaching next week, the narrative and debate about many players is building.
One of the most highly debated players in this years NFL Draft is Texas A&M Quarterback, Johnny Manziel. Those in the draft community are enamored with his combination of skills but also wary of his size and some of the traits with which he plays. Many fans and draftniks want to throw out casual observations and assign them value and significance in regards to Johnny Manziel. But I will provide my grade for Manziel while also providing important data and context into Maniel's 2013 season that I believe will help set the record straight.
Build / Vitals
Manziel has large hands which certainly helps any QB handle the ball, especially in inclement weather. Johnny is a fluid athlete with quick feet, great coordination, excellent vision, great timing and placement on his routes at all levels, with good accuracy and great poise in the pocket under pressure. Manziel is able to throw from multiple arm angles and platforms if needed, and his mechanics have improved tremendously over the last year. One of the most impressive parts of his game is his ability to throw the ball along the sideline (boundary to numbers) - often where only his WR can make the catch. He has a great follow through and quick release.
Production
It's hard to forget the memorable and record setting season Johnny Manziel had as a freshman that helped hi become the first Freshman in NCAA history to earn the Heisman Trophy. And as a red shirt Sophomore this season, he once again put up great production.
You will see my interpretation of these numbers below based on the 10 games available from the 2013 season at DraftBreakdown.com.
Leadership
In numerous games this season, "Johnny Football" helped to rally his team in the second half, often in the 4th quarter, to come back at win the game. This is something special considering the level of talent he was playing against. The SEC is arguably the best conference in all of NCAA football. While I don't' like the phrase, "he's a leader" or "he's a winner", the fact remains that he has had to put his team on his shoulders in numerous occasions, on the biggest stages in NCAA football, and he was able to carry them to victory and elevate the level of both himself and his teammates when it really mattered. To me, that is an impressive trait that can't be discounted. You want a "win at all costs" / strong willed QB leading your team. Whether it's a quiet leader like Peyton Manning, or a loud one like Manziel, just having it can change a teams' confidence.
Projection and Fit with Browns
Draft Grade
In evaluating Manziel, here was my breakdown below. I see Johnny Manziel as a First Round grade and I feel that he can become a special player at the next level. I feel that his poise and confidence in the pocket, coupled with his mobility and athleticism, will allow him to quickly adjust to taking snaps under center, reading defenses, and moving in the pocket to avoid pressure and create throwing lanes.Manziel's biggest concern is if he will be able to stay in the pocket and make good decisions. On occasion Manziel appears to toss the ball up in hope that his WR will bail him out and it turned out that they most the time. But in the NFL, some of those throws are going to be INT's and if he abandons the pocket too early and too consistently, the fear is if his body can hold up and take the beating that NFL defenses will undoubtedly put on him. All that being said, Johnny Manziel has plenty of arm strength , zip, accuracy, timing, placement, and vision to excel at the next level. His mechanics are improving and I would imagine will only get better with NFL coaching.
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Summary
Manziel is a very creative QB and has an excellent ability to feel pressure and escape the pocket when needed, he can make accurate throws while on the run. Manziel has excellent vision both in the pocket and while on the move. Manziel's arm isn't a rocket, but he is effective and can place the ball in all the levels. He shows the ability to adjust his arm angles and deliver the ball from various platforms. The biggest concerns I have for him are his size and his aggressive running style. While you'll see below that nearly 49% of his running plays last season were designed runs, he will need to be more aware of protecting his body at the next level. Decision making and accuracy are some concerns that I also have, especially on some intermediate routes and particularly routes along the right sideline between 8 and 34 yards.
Passing Charts
Complete 2013 Charting Analysis
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Above you can see my summary of Johnny Manziel's 2013 season per the film available at DraftBreakdown.com and while this data isn't complete, it does represent approximately 77% of the season's games and consists of mostly high caliber teams. Among the teams left out of the evaluation at the moment are - SMU, UTEP and Sam Houston State.Â
I will summarize what we see from this data in the following paragraphs. You can see that the narrative that Johnny Manziel abandons the pocket and âjust runs around' are false. I define abandoning the pocket as a QB that leaves the pocket while there is no pressure OR before 3 seconds have past. In the 154 instances where JFF scrambled out of the pocket from these 10 games charted, he abandoned the pocket just 21% of the time; meanwhile the play was a designed run 30% of the time; and the pocket collapsed or the blitz caused him to scramble nearly half the times he ran, or 49%. Of these 154 plays where he scrambled, he made 65 clutch plays, meaning he ran or passed for a first down or touchdown - so 42% of the time he left the pocket, he made a clutch play, of which 35% where first downs and 7% were touchdowns.
When throwing to the sideline, something that Manziel likes to do and does well, he completed 63 of 98 passes - or 64% of his passes- in this area of the field. For the purposes of this data, a sideline throw is a throw between the boundary and the numbers. Of those 63 completions, 41 were clutch plays - 33 first downs, 8 TD and 4 interceptions.
When Johnny "rolled out" of the pocket, whether he was forced due to pressure or abandoned the pocket to extend the play, he was much more successful and effective rolling to his left vs. rolling to his right. When rolling to his right, Manziel was only 14 for 29, for 48% completion - of which he racked up 13 clutch plays, 10 first downs and 3 TDs. When rolling to his left, Manziel thrived statistically where he was 26 for 32, for 81% completion - of which he racked up 19 clutch plays, 13 first downs, 6 TDs and 1 interception. Statistically, you can also see that Manziel completed more passes to the left side of the field vs. the right side of the field.
The one concern from the charting above is that Manziel's deep and intermediate completion percentages leave a little to be desired. While his deep passes to the left and right of 35 or more yards were completed at 50%, his passes between 16 and 34 yards were often incomplete. His average completion percentage in this area of the field was only 54%.
Conversely, and as you might expect, his completion percentage from the LOS through the 15 yard line was very strong with the only exception being the right side of the field in the 8 - 15 yard range where he only posted a 39% completion rate. However, if you include all the areas of the field from the LOS to the 15 yard line, Manziel's total completion percentage was 78%.
You can conclude similar analytics and trends from the data I charted below for each of the 10 games available.
Johnny Manziel vs. LSU
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Johnny Manziel vs. Alabama
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Manziel vs Alabama - in stride, bucket pass along sideline, over CB; appears to throw off back foot.
Johnny Manziel vs. Arkansas
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Johnny Manziel vs. Vanderbilt
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Johnny Manziel vs. Mizzou
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Johnny Manziel vs. Duke
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Johnny Manziel vs Ole Miss
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Johnny Manziel vs. Rice
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Johnny Manziel vs. Auburn
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Johnny Manziel vs. Mississippi State
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