clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Dawgs By Wager: Saints at Browns - Odds and Prop Bets

Another week, another edition of Dawgs By Wager! More odds, predictions, and prop bets for the Browns home opener against the Saints.

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Saints at Browns

Sorry, but this week the machines are against us.

After correctly picking the Browns to cover the spread last week despite losing to the Steelers, The Computer isn't giving Cleveland nearly as much leeway this time around as they play host to the Saints.

The line opened earlier this week favoring New Orleans by 6.5, even as a team heading into their second game in a row on the road and beginning the season 0-1. Sports gamblers must have liked those numbers because 65% of the action has been wagered in their direction, eventually moving the line to 7.

The Browns, too, are sitting at 0-1 following an extremely close contest ending in a field goal. But unsurprisingly, the Saints looked markedly more consistent over the course of four quarters, while the Browns' game was night and day between halves. On the bright side, the best Cleveland had to offer was in the second half, as opposed to the other way around.

With all of the advanced statistics taken account, the Odds Shark handicapping pick engine matches the consensus, predicting a considerable win for the Saints, 26-15, covering the spread and then some.

One of the most significant differences between this week and last is how well the Saints powerful offense through the air may be able to take advantage of one of the Browns' most glaring weaknesses, the secondary after Joe Haden. Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks should be licking their chops to have at the likes of Buster Skrine and rookie Justin Gilbert.

Hope it's wrong, but don't be surprised to see the ominous computer go 2-0 picking Browns games.

Stat Cleveland Browns New Orleans Saints
Point Spread (Money Line) +7.0 (-115) -7.0 (-105)
Consensus: Current Bets 35% 65%
Computer Predicted Score 15 26

The over/under for the total amount of points scored in the game is set at 47.5, and despite that somewhat high number, 54% of the bettors are taking the over. The Computer, on the other hand, has a much lower total of only 41, again not predicting many points from the Cleveland offense, even at home.

Prop bets:

While the more specific player proposition bets haven't yet been released midweek, there some really interesting wagers worth taking a look at that may be particularly fun.

First, the only Browns player with a prop bet out at the moment is the currently suspended Josh Gordon. It would appear that Vegas is seeing a lot of the same momentum this newly proposed drug policy is gaining, which reportedly includes reinstatement of a number of players.

The line has been moving since it opened, a sign of how the news surrounding those negotiations has been consistently changing the perspective. It currently pretty heavily favors Gordon's reinstatement at some point this season.

Proposition Bet Yes No
Will Josh Gordon play a game in the 2014 Regular Season? -400 +250
Will Roger Godell still be the NFL Commissioner for game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season? -200*

The last proposition there is amusing merely by its presence. *However, the line is no longer available. As far as I can tell, it wasn't up for very long at all, but I did note during that time, the "yes" was set at a measly -200. Needless to say, Goodell doesn't inspire confidence much of anywhere.

Share your predictions for all the lines in the comments!

Please play responsibly. Be sure to confirm the regulations in your jurisdiction. Only wager money that you can afford to lose. "Help is available 24/7 and is 100% confidential," via the National Council on Problem Gambling, 1-800-522-4700.