Browns Pass Rush: Forecasting Week 2 vs. The New Orleans Saints

Week 1 of the 2014 season is in the books. I'm not one to dwell on the past, but I do think we can learn some things from it. With that in mind, let's look back at the pass rush versus the Steelers, so that we can figure out what to expect for Week 2's matchup with the New Orleans Saints and going forward.

If you are looking for an explanation of where the following numbers come from or a breakdown of the 2013 results that I use as a basis for comparison in this article, check out my introductory 2014 Browns Pass Rush Season Primer. Now, let's jump into this week's results.

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WEEK 1 TEAM PASS RUSH

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Overall Team Pass Rush Scores:

2014 Week 1 vs. PIT	67.9%
2013 Week 1 vs. MIA	68.2%
2013 Week 4 vs. CIN	66.7%
2013 Week 9 vs. BAL	74.5%
2013 Week 13 vs. JAX	93.5%
2013 Week 17 vs. PIT	76.9%
2013 Season Total	73.9%

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Number of Pass Rushers on Play:

		Week 1		2013 vs. PIT

4-Man Rush	19/28 = 67.9%	15/26 = 57.7%
3-Man Rush	 6/28 = 21.4%	 6/26 = 23.1%
5-Man Rush	 3/28 = 10.7%	 5/26 = 19.2%

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Results of Plays With 5-Man Rush:

41-yard screen to Antonio Brown
6-yard pass on 2nd-And-12
Interception by Karlos Dansby
35-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Brown
38-yard touchdown run by Le'Veon Bell
9-yard pass to Heath Miller

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As you can see, the overall team pass rush score was down this past week compared to the 2013 season as a whole as well as the Week 17 game against the Steelers. Why is this and what does it mean?

1. Blitzing was down compared to last year on qualifying passing plays: The Browns brought nearly 10% less 5-man rushes, which can to some extent account for the similar 9% decrease in functional pressure on the quarterback.

• Qualifying passing plays? These are plays that factor into my pass rush numbers: plays where the defense has the opportunity to bring a "normal" pass rush. By that, I mean that it excludes quick 1-step drop throws, trick plays, and plays which let rushers have a free path to the quarterback...like screen passes.

2. Screen passes: We got burned on two huge screens on the opening drive.

• One was to RB Le'Veon Bell against a 4-man pass rush, where we brought both OLB Jabaal Sheard and ILB Chris Kirksey from the same side and the screen was thrown right into the vacated area for a 23-yard gain. We tried to overload the right side of the Steelers offensive line, but by bringing both linebackers from that side we left ourselves vulnerable to a screen that direction:

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• Another to WR Antonio Brown came on a 5-man rush with the inside linebackers covering the flats. He caught the pass, ducked behind a blocker to evade ILB Craig Robertson, and was immediately behind the linebackers and into the secondary, because between the 5 rushers, the 2 linebackers in the flats, and a corner on the far side of the field we only had 3 defensive backs left to contain the play. Result: 41-yard gain:

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3. Blitzing was down (and out) in the second half and the focus was on coverage and contain: This is really where the numbers became skewed. The coaches decided to abandon the idea of bringing 5-man pressures -- even though Karlos Dansby snagged his interception on one such play -- and I think this is the major reason why the team pass rush score dropped this week. They chose to forgo getting extra pressure in exchange for preventing the type of big plays we got burned on several times in the first half, including the aforementioned screen to Antonio Brown and the following plays:

• A 9-yard screen pass to tight end Heath Miller. Buster Skrine blitzed from the slot where he could have assisted Dansby in holding Miller to a minimal gain of about 4 yards. While not a huge disaster, this play did get the Steelers into a very manageable 3rd-and-1 as they were approaching field goal range at the end of the first half:

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• The Browns brought a 5-man rush from an unbalanced defensive front. They had two 4-tech defensive tackles, a 9-tech defensive end, and an outside linebacker lined up on the same side as the defensive end. This was a mistake, and boy did the Browns pay for it. The Steelers ran RB Le'Veon Bell right at the empty space where a defensive end should have been for a 38-yard touchdown:

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• The 35-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Brown:

I feel like Mingo got a lot of flak for this play. He deserves some for the underwhelming start to his career, but not for this play in particular. In fact, other pass rushers made much bigger mistakes here. Buster Skrine had a free lane to the quarterback but took a bad angle, whiffed, and ran into Mingo. Roethlisberger got Billy Winn to waste time jumping without even a pump fake. This slowed Winn's rush and prevented him from getting to the QB. If Winn doesn't jump, this is a sack and we're praising Mingo for drawing the double team that freed up Billy Winn. Ahtyba Rubin came free while Kruger was being double-teamed. He saw Winn bringing pressure up the middle and should have moved outside to eliminate Big Ben's escape route. Instead he went inside and lost contain. Finally, Paul Kruger got held from behind on the play. That's not his fault, but he chose to hold up his hand and call for a flag instead of focusing on completing his rush. C'mon, guys! That's Coach Pettine's "comedy of errors" for you. Let's take another look:

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4. Sometimes you'll still get burned by a well-run screen play: Playing with discipline should still improve your chances, put the onus on the offense to execute perfectly, and reduce the frequency with which you get burned.

• The Browns rushed 4 and still gave up 19 yards on a screen to Le'Veon Bell. In this case, Chris Kirksey was in man coverage on WR Justin Brown and got too far away to respond. Karlos Dansby was left alone to defeat two blockers. Bell was able to get by him and into the secondary:

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5. Perfect example of why the Browns shifted to a less aggressive approach on defense: The Steelers ran the same screen pass to WR Antonio Brown that gained 41 yards in the first quarter (shown above in the second bullet point under point #2) again near the end of the second quarter. This time they rushed 3 and dropped both inside linebackers and one outside linebacker into coverage. This time the play only gained 6 yards on a 3rd-and-7, forcing a 3-and-out:

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THE WEEK 1 SCORES

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Pass Rush Scores:

			Week 1		2013

Paul Kruger		40.0%		48.6%
Jabaal Sheard		50.0%		32.2%
Armonty Bryant		22.7%		31.9%
Desmond Bryant		 DNP		29.4%
Barkevious Mingo	21.4%		27.5%
Billy Winn		 5.0%		27.5%
John Hughes		 DNP		22.2%
Ishmaa'ily Kitchen	33.0%		20.8%
Ahtyba Rubin		 0.0%		17.1%
Phil Taylor		37.5%		11.8%
Chris Kirksey		66.7%		 DNP

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Composite Pass Rush Scores:

			Week 1		2013

Armonty Bryant		63.6%		91.5%
Jabaal Sheard		75.0%		82.2%
Paul Kruger		66.7%		78.4%
Desmond Bryant		 DNP		75.4%
Phil Taylor		87.5%		75.0%
Billy Winn		65.0%		72.5%
Ahtyba Rubin		66.7%		71.4%
Barkevious Mingo	57.1%		71.3%
John Hughes		 DNP		64.4%
Ishmaa'ily Kitchen	100%		62.5%
Chris Kirksey		100%		 DNP

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Week 1 Observations:

1. The team used three outside linebackers: Paul Kruger, Barkevious Mingo, and Jabaal Sheard.

	Rushes	PR Score   Composite	

Sheard	 16	 50.0%      75.0%
Kruger	 15	 40.0%      66.7%
Mingo	 14	 21.4%      57.1%

• The trio split the pass rushing reps equally. Sheard and Kruger had the better performances. Mingo left something to be desired in terms of his personal Pass Rush Score (the success rate of his own pass rush attempts), while Sheard actually exceeded his average from 2013. Kruger was just slightly below his average pressure numbers from last year, though in his 2013 games he often either made a very big or a very small contribution (and he did better in his 2013 Week 17 matchup with the Steelers than he did this past week, with a 50% Pass Rush Score and an 83.3% Composite Pass Rush Score in that game, though he had several big plays in this contest).

Jabaal Sheard plows right through right tackle Marcus Gilbert for a sack:

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Paul Kruger bullies the right tackle backwards, leaving a running lane for the quarterback. Aware of this, he knifes into that space to bring down the scrambling QB for a sack:

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Now facing LT Kelvin Beachum, Kruger draws a double team, gets a flag for being held, and still tackles a scrambling Ben Roethlisberger for a minimal 1-yard gain:

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2. The team used five defensive tackles: Armonty Bryant, Billy Winn, Phil Taylor, Ahtyba Rubin, and Ishmaa'ily Kitchen.

	Rushes	PR Score   Composite	

Armonty	 22	 22.7%      63.6%
Winn	 20	  5.0%      65.0%
Taylor	  8	 37.5%      87.5%
Rubin	  6	  0.0%      66.7%
Kitchen	  3	 33.3%      100%
PT/AR/IK 17	 23.5%      82.4%

• Armonty Bryant and Billy Winn got the vast majority of pass rushing reps. Both had down numbers compared to last year's average. There are two major factors likely in play here. Both had an greater role in the base defense than they did last year, where both saw a higher portion of their action in pass defense sub packages. Secondly, the Steelers had some big plays in the screen game and the running game early on. Both of these factors likely resulted in Armonty and Winn erring on the side of caution rather than selling out on the pass rush.

A stunt between ILB Chris Kirksey and DT Armonty Bryant creates pressure up the middle on Ben Roethlisberger:

• Taylor, Rubin, and Kitchen all exceeded their 2013 benchmark numbers, and while their number of attempts are too small to yield significant results, their combined numbers are interesting (denoted "PT/AR/IK" above). These guys saw action in the base defense and in likely running situations due to their limitations as pass rushers. However, when the opponent did pass on them, they contributed to an effective pass rush, shown in their respectable Composite Pass Rush Scores. A big part of this was due to the fact that, combined, these three were double-teamed 47.1 percent of the time when rushing the passer or a total of 8 plays. Of these 8 plays, 7 of them resulted in an Impact pressure where the quarterback faced fast-developing, play-changing pressure.

Here we can see Ishmaa'ily Kitchen getting pressure on Roethlisberger in Week 1 and forcing him to throw the ball away:

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3. Of the inside linebackers, I suspected Karlos Dansby to be the one rushing the passer. He didn't in Week 1, but Chris Kirksey did 3 times and Craig Robertson did once.

Robertson did not get pressure on the quarterback in his lone attempt, but Kirksey did two out of the three times he rushed, including one sack.

• On Kirksey's first pressure, he comes in with a full head of steam and Roethlisberger makes him miss:

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• The next time, Kirksey throttles down upon entering the backfield and secures the sack:

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The Week 2 Matchup:

Can the Browns get pressure on QB Drew Brees with a four man rush? Can the Saints pass protect well enough to force the Browns to blitz?

1. If Brees has time, he can pick apart the Browns pass coverage with his huge arsenal of playmakers; if the Browns blitz, he will find the open man: The Browns can't hope to cover Jimmy Graham, Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, Kenny Stills, and running backs Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas if Brees is able to take his time and wait for them to come open. They also can't afford to send 5- or 6-man pass rushes very often, because Brees will target the vacated area and make them pay...like the Steelers did. The 4-man rush must get home.

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2. Saints Left Tackle Terron Armstead: Armstead has excellent balance, feet, and technique. He is very good at taking away speed rushers, as he can mirror them around the corner with his rangy kick slide. Unfortunately for him -- but quite fortunately for us -- he struggles against power. He's simply too lean and lanky and lacks a strong base. Due to his strengths and weaknesses, I advise that we keep Mingo far, far away from him. Paul Kruger would be my first choice to go up against Armstead. His combination of tremendous power and functional quickness would give him the edge in this matchup. Sheard should also see some action here.

Look at Armstead using sound technique and getting good leverage...yet still getting thrown aside (also note his skinny legs):

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3. Saints Right Tackle Zach Strief: Strief is a large, long-armed tackle with good balance for his size but is a waist-bender and has bad feet. He makes up for this by leaning and reaching -- these things actually serve him well against outside speed rushes, as you can see below. With his long arms, it's hard to get by him around the corner without taking a very wide loop. Instead, set him up with an initial outside move, get him leaning (which he is eager to do to wall off your outside rush), and redirect inside. I don't really like Mingo on Strief either; this game isn't likely to be a big one for him if he makes it off the injury report. Preferably, Kruger lines up against the left tackle and Sheard takes on Zach Strief. He has enough quickness to set him up and then some power to get through him inside.

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4. Saints Center Jonathan Goodwin: No offense to the man personally, but Goodwin is one of the worst starting centers in the NFL at dealing with power. Look below at how the nose tackle walks him back to the quarterback and then chucks him aside. I can understand having Rubin out there in the base defense, but part of me really wants to give Ishmaa'ily Kitchen the start at NT as he's much better at driving through his blockers (and had a big play doing so against Pittsburgh, which I showed you above).

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5. Saints Right Guard Jahri Evans: This is the guy I want to put Armonty and/or Desmond Bryant on. Evans gets demolished by quickness and agility. He simply has very slow, heavy feet. Look at his slow reaction time in the play below, he hardly moves his feet at all, just leans a little and lets the defensive tackle swing right by him.

Before you say, "Well, maybe he was just caught off guard", let's look at another example. This time, there are no tricks, just a straight up power rush right at him and he still doesn't move his feet:

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6. Saints Left Guard Ben Grubbs: Grubbs is rock solid. Balance, base, power: he has it all. I would suggest putting a bigger, 2-gapping defensive end or defensive tackle (depending on the set we're in) like Phil Taylor or Ahtyba Rubin on him to keep him occupied, because there are more favorable matchups everywhere else along the line for our better pass rushing linemen to exploit.

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ATTENTION: This is the end of the analysis portion of this article. The remainder consists of tables reporting the grades individual players received for each of their pass rush attempts in Week 1 (as was done with their 2013 grades in the 2014 Browns Pass Rush Season Primer).

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The Grades

IMPACT = Pass rush ends QB's clock.

• The best rating for a pass rush.
• Pass rush that gets home.
• Either forces QB to make split-second decision or denies him even that chance.
• Many sacks fall in this category.
• Incompletions: forced throwaways, grounding.
• Also includes passes batted down at the line.
• Also early penetration into the backfield that forces QB off his spot, forces him to scramble, etc.

EFFECTIVE = Pass rush shortens QB's clock.

• The second best rating for a pass rush attempt. These plays are the bread and butter of a defense, as they limit the quarterback's ability to pick apart the coverage and often force him to settle for suboptimal throws.
• Forces QB to cut short or speed up his process.
• A lot of incompletions, interceptions, and checkdowns are caused by this kind of pressure.
• May result in coverage sacks if DB's lock down their receivers.
• General rule of thumb: Rush affects pocket within the first 2-3 seconds or impacts it very strongly immediately thereafter.

ADEQUATE = Pass rush contains QB's clock.

• Forces quarterback to make a decision within the rhythm of play.
• QB does not have to hurry but doesn't have all day.
• Pass rusher comes free late...usually too late.
• This is a win for the blocker and a loss for the rusher, but it's not a blowout or domination.
• One common example is when an edge rusher attempts an outside speed rush but the offensive tackle is able to mirror his rush and force him too wide and deep, causing him to come free behind the pocket rather than turning the corner into it.
• These rushes can become big plays if the quarterback holds onto the ball too long.
• Generalization: This is when it takes roughly 4 seconds before the rush will get there.

INEFFECTIVE = Pass rush does not affect QB's clock.

• Pass rusher may be completely taken out of play by blocker.
• QB has "all day" and can take as much time as he needs; rusher applies no pressure.
• This is a blowout win for the blocker and loss for the rusher.
• Defenses can get gutted in the passing game if they have many plays with an Ineffective rush grade. Players with a high frequency of these individual grades may still be an asset to the pass rush if their team grades are much better (i.e. they have a high Composite Pass Rush Score).

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Pass Rush Scores and Composite Pass Rush Scores report how often a player/defensive unit generates an Impact or Effective pass rush. Essentially, a Pass Rush Score shows how often a player gets a good enough pass rush to affect the play while his Composite Pass Rush Score indicates how often the defense as a whole gets pressure on the quarterback on plays where he is rushing.

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THE WEEK 1 NUMBERS

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#99 OLB Paul Kruger:

Individual rush:
Impact 		4/15 = 26.7%
Effective 	2/15 = 13.3%
Adequate	4/15 = 26.7%
Ineffective	5/15 = 33.3%
Pass Rush Score 6/15 = 40%
Team when he rushes:
Impact 		8/15 = 53.3%
Effective 	2/15 = 13.3%
Adequate	3/15 = 20%
Ineffective	2/15 = 13.3%
Composite Pass Rush Score 10/15 = 66.7%

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#51 OLB Barkevious Mingo:

Individual rush:
Impact 		3/14 = 21.4%
Effective 	0/14 =  0%
Adequate	3/14 = 21.4%
Ineffective	8/14 = 57.1%
Pass Rush Score 3/14 = 21.4%

Team when he rushes:
Impact 		7/14 = 50%
Effective 	1/14 =  7.1%
Adequate	4/14 = 28.6%
Ineffective	2/14 = 14.3%
Composite Pass Rush Score 8/14 = 57.1%

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#97 OLB Jabaal Sheard:

Individual rush:
Impact 		5/16 = 31.3%
Effective 	3/16 = 18.8%
Adequate	2/16 = 12.5%
Ineffective 	6/16 = 37.5%
Pass Rush Score 8/16 = 50%
Team when he rushes:
Impact 		11/16 = 68.8%
Effective 	 1/16 =  6.3%
Adequate	 3/16 = 18.8%
Ineffective	 1/16 =  6.3%
Composite Pass Rush Score 12/16 = 75%

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#95 DE/DT Armonty Bryant:

Individual rush:
Impact 		 3/22 = 13.6%
Effective 	 2/22 =  9.1%
Adequate	 6/22 = 27.3%
Ineffective	11/22 = 50%
Pass Rush Score 5/22 = 22.7%
Team when he rushes:
Impact 		12/22 = 54.5%
Effective 	 2/22 =  9.1%
Adequate	 6/22 = 27.3%
Ineffective	 2/22 =  9.1%
Composite Pass Rush Score 14/22 = 63.6%

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#90 DE/DT Billy Winn:

Individual rush:
Impact 		 0/20 =  0%
Effective 	 1/20 =  5%
Adequate	 5/20 = 25%
Ineffective	14/20 = 70%
Pass Rush Score 1/20 = 5%
Team when he rushes:
Impact 		10/20 = 50%
Effective 	 3/20 = 15%
Adequate	 4/20 = 20%
Ineffective	 3/20 = 15%
Composite Pass Rush Score 13/20 = 65%

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#98 DT Phil Taylor:

Individual rush:
Impact 		1/8 = 12.5%
Effective 	2/8 = 25%
Adequate	1/8 = 12.5%
Ineffective 	4/8 = 50%
Pass Rush Score 3/8 = 37.5%
Team when he rushes:
Impact 		6/8 = 75%
Effective 	1/8 = 12.5%
Adequate	1/8 = 12.5%
Ineffective	0/8 =  0%
Composite Pass Rush Score 7/8 = 87.5%

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#71 DT Ahtyba Rubin:

Individual rush:
Impact 		0/6 =  0%
Effective 	0/6 =  0%
Adequate	1/6 = 16.7%
Ineffective	5/6 = 83.3%
Pass Rush Score 0/6 = 0%
Team when he rushes:
Impact 		3/6 = 50%
Effective 	1/6 = 16.7%
Adequate	1/6 = 16.7%
Ineffective	1/6 = 16.7%
Composite Pass Rush Score 4/6 = 66.7%

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#67 DT Ishmaa'ily Kitchen:

Individual rush:
Impact 		1/3 = 33.3%
Effective 	0/3 =  0%
Adequate	0/3 =  0%
Ineffective	2/3 = 66.7%
Pass Rush Score 1/3 = 33.3%
Team when he rushes:
Impact 		3/3 = 100%
Effective 	0/3 =   0%
Adequate	0/3 =   0%
Ineffective	0/3 =   0%
Composite Pass Rush Score 3/3 = 100%

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#58 ILB Chris Kirksey:

Individual rush:
Impact 		2/3 = 66.7%
Effective 	0/3 =  0%
Adequate	0/3 =  0%
Ineffective	1/3 = 33.3%
Pass Rush Score 2/3 = 66.7%
Team when he rushes:
Impact 		3/3 = 100%
Effective 	0/3 =   0%
Adequate	0/3 =   0%
Ineffective	0/3 =   0%
Composite Pass Rush Score 3/3 = 100%

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