NFL picks and predictions for Week 4

Note: This pick was posted in our TNF thread on Thursday. I am listing it here for record-keeping purposes.

Thursday Night Football: Fresh off of beating the Browns, the Miami Dolphins will travel to Ohio to take on the state’s other team, the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are reeling a bit, not being able to beat two of the AFC’s playoff contenders in Pittsburgh and Denver over the past two weeks.

I predicted that Cincinnati would face issues heading into Week 1 when they were without so many of their offensive weapons (and Hue Jackson) from a year ago, but I was tricked into thinking otherwise after the fact when they handled the Jets pretty well. The cracks became clearer over the past two weeks, but they’ll be getting Tyler Eifert back soon, and those who read my previews last week know that I don’t have much faith in Ryan Tannehill. Bengals 24, Dolphins 17

Live from London: The London games are back, so make sure you tune in to this game at 9:30 AM on CBS for a full day's worth of football. The future can't look bright for Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley. He's gone 4-12, 3-13, and 5-11, and now he's off to an 0-3 start in the year where things were finally supposed to come together as a complete package. The real woes are still on the offensive side of the ball. The Colts' defense remains a problem point, but Jacksonville won't have enough of a punch to out-score the Colts, who are looking to take advantage of their next two opponents having a combined 0-6 record. Colts 27, Jaguars 21

Perfection Without the Leader: We were oh-so-close to getting to see Julian Edelman as the Patriots' No. 1 quarterback. It sounds like Jimmy Garoppolo will return to action this week as the team looks to go 4-0 leading in to the big return of Tom Brady next week against Cleveland. Buffalo pulled off a very impressive win over the Arizona Cardinals last week, but I'm not ready to bite on them upsetting the Patriots in Foxboro. Patriots 31, Bills 17

It'll Come Down to Cousins: This is a game where I’d really like to pick Cleveland. The team’s competitiveness over the past two weeks, despite a bunch of injuries, has been encouraging. It’s hard to imagine so many unknown players (i.e. all of our undrafted free agents) thriving like they did a week ago. Also, Josh Norman might be able to neutralize Terrelle Pryor as a receiver. Although the Redskins’ pass coverage isn’t very good, I don’t know if Cody Kessler has enough other weapons to take advantage of that.

If the Browns are going to succeed on offense, it’ll have to be with a strong effort on the ground by Isaiah Crowell. Even if Crowell has a good day, can we bank on Cody Parkey putting it through the uprights when necessary? On defense, I pointed out some flaws in Jamar Taylor’s game, and Washington features a pass-heavy attack that will take advantage of that, along with the team’s issues covering tight ends on third down. It’ll be another close game, but the pass rush won’t get to Kirk Cousins enough and he’ll find his talented group for some big plays. Redskins 27, Browns 20

Playing to Win: Brian Hoyer will make his second straight start for the Bears. Last week against the Cowboys, he played a pretty passive game, not looking to take any sacks. For a team like Chicago that is really lacking in...pretty much all departments, they need their quarterback to elevate them above the competition. I'd like to give Chicago an upset win here, but they haven't even been close to competitive these first three weeks. Lions 24, Bears 13

4-0 is 4-0: When you get to a certain point, you have to stop criticizing teams for the "easy schedule" they've had to start the year. Yes, I don't feel Baltimore has played well enough to be 3-0 (and probably 4-0 after this week). I don't think they can compete very well with the powerhouses of the AFC and the NFC. But, there is still something to be said about a team that can take care of business when they are supposed to, and that's what Baltimore is doing. As they pile up more wins, that will help them when they do face tougher competition, both from a chemistry standpoint and because a loss won't mean as much, given the record they've built up. Ravens 27, Raiders 24

Not the Bounceback Needed: I don't know how Ryan Fitzpatrick can have as sharp of a game as he did against the Bills two weeks ago, only to toss six interceptions against the Chiefs last week. The recipe for overcoming a bad game certainly isn't facing the Seattle Seahawks, though. Seattle also finally found their offense last week, and it'll be interesting to see if the connection with Russell Wilson and Jimmy Graham can take off again. Seahawks 23, Jets 21

Shaking it Off: The Texans basically had their early-season bye last week after being destroyed by the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. They've also lost J.J. Watt for the season, which takes away from the strengths that helped them win the first two games of the season. Still, I'm going to place a good amount of faith in Brock Osweiler. He had one bad game against New England but showed a lot of encouraging signs in the preseason and those first two games. Texans 20, Titans 16

Defense Wins Championships: Trevor Simean had a heck of a game last week against the Bengals, and it came a week after his receivers said they needed to be a more aggressive team on offense. Why not, too? Denver's defense is so good that the offense can afford to make some mistakes and not be caught in too much of a bind. The Buccaneers look to be on a disappointing path in a season where I thought they'd be a prime player in the NFC. Broncos 31, Buccaneers 20

Besides the Bears...: ...the 49ers are the next worst team in the NFL. How much longer can they trot Blaine Gabbert out at quarterback, and why they ever hired Jim O'Neil as their defensive coordinator is still way beyond me. 49ers trolls were still trying to defend the guy last week to us on Twitter. Dallas' ground game is heating up and they'll have another big day on the ground this week. Cowboys 24, 49ers 16

The Jeff Fisher Chart: I love that chart that's out there when it comes to Jeff Fisher teams -- if he gets above .500, he has to lose to make sure he stays at mediocrity. In all seriousness, the Rams' defense has played pretty well, but they aren't generating many sacks and turnovers, something that has plagued Carson Palmer a bit. The Cardinals should snap out of their funk this week to reclaim their position as an NFC powerhouse. Cardinals 28, Rams 10

Sunday Night Football: I would also count this as the game of the week. Pittsburgh is coming off one of the worst games I've ever seen them play in the Ben Roethlisberger era. That's not the type of team they are, and they'll be hell bent on revenge and Le'Veon Bell will also make his return. It comes against a Chiefs defense that logged six interceptions last week and is just a good football team in general. Steelers 24, Chiefs 20

Monday Night Football: I am in awe of the Minnesota Vikings' defense. They've held two MVP quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton) to a combined 24 points over the past two weeks, which lets Sam Bradford and a Peterson-less backfield play with patience and confidence. The Giants' is a formidable unit too, making this the second most intriguing match-up of the week. I'll take the Vikings based on their defensive roll right now. Vikings 21, Giants 16